UFC 333 Predictions — Volkanovski vs. Evloev & All Main Card Fights

We’ve got a big one on “Fight Island” this weekend.

Arguably the most stacked numbered card of the 2026 season goes down on Saturday, headlined by two title fights in two of UFC’s most competitive divisions.

The main feature is at featherweight, where Alexander Volkanovski’s unbelievable resume looks to add another impossible chapter as he approaches 40. He’ll battle undefeated Russian wrestler Movsar Evloev, who's looking to move to 21-0 and snatch the title.

The UFC 333 main card features five fights, with Volkanovski and Evloev sitting at a pick ‘em in the main event, according to PrizePicks payouts.

In the co-main event, a bantamweight trilogy will be settled for the title as Merab Dvalishvili looks to reclaim his throne against Petr Yan, the dominant victor from December.

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev's main card starts Saturday at 2 p.m. ET on Paramount+, and we’re breaking down every fight with UFC 333 predictions, predictive model analysis, and PrizePicks UFC picks for Volkanovski vs. Evloev and the rest of the main card.

Make your UFC 333 predictions on PrizePicks, including on winners, method of victory, significant strikes, and more!

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UFC 333 Predictions for Volkanovski vs. Evloev & Main Card Fights

Before we get into our UFC 333 predictions for Saturday, here’s a brief intro on what you'll find below.

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev’s main card is expected to start at 2 p.m. ET with the first main card fight. Here’s a full rundown of the proceedings:

• Main Event: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev – Featherweight Title
• Co-Main Event: Erin Blanchfield vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius – Bantamweight Title
• Lone’er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov – Flyweight
• Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev – Middleweight
• Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita – Featherweight

We’ll list the payouts for who will win each UFC 333 main card fight, via PrizePicks. For example, a 2x means the result will payout $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. UFC winner markets are available in 36 states, including Florida, California, and Texas! 

Learn more about Austin Swaim's UFC model here, with all eligible results included below.

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev Prediction for UFC 333

Fight Winner Payouts: Alexander Volkanovski 1.85x | Movsar Evloev 1.88x

Weight Class: Featherweight Championship Bout (145 pounds)

Volkanovski vs. Evloev Model Results:

Alexander Volkanovski’s resolve simply can’t be questioned.

As most would have aged into the night after consecutive knockout losses in a six-month span in early 2024, it’s now late 2026, and the greatest ever at featherweight has not only reclaimed the title but is a decent proposition to defend it.

“The Great” couldn’t be a more appropriate nickname. When you consider the championship-level opponents he’s been facing for over seven years, a +2.68 striking success rate (SSR) is as good as it gets, leading all active champions in the category.

I’ve argued he’s mastered distance striking, holding elite accuracy (57%) and defense (58%) on the feet as well.

Volk’s two-part series with Diego Lopes was largely uncompetitive. The non-technical brawler had a -123 striking differential in two title shots and, other than clipping the longtime champ once in their first meeting, ostensibly had no chance.

Volk has lost three times in UFC to Islam Makhachev and Ilia Topuria. Both were able to test his aging chin and average takedown defense (68%) at the highest of levels. Movsar Evloev will have to do one or the other.

Part of the reason it took so long for Evloev, 10-0 in UFC, to get a shot at Volkanovski is that “testing chins” hasn’t been his thing. He’s gone to a decision in every single bout. He’s attempted just 0.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

The Russian’s fights aren’t always the easiest watch, but you can’t deny his elite wrestling skills.

He’s attempted 9.19 takedowns per 15 minutes and landed an efficient 52% of those. In his last fight against Lerone Murphy, he overcame an early deficit to actually get stronger as the fight progressed and escaped with the win:

Really, I think a prediction in this fight comes down to your prognosis on Evloev’s wrestling success. Volkanovski has given up multiple takedowns in just two title fights. He surrendered four in a decision loss to Makhachev, and that fight was at 155 pounds against a larger guy.

The other? His last fight against Lopes, who also scored 1:50 in control time.

Evloev is so big for the weight class and so efficient. He’s landed at least four takedowns in each of his last six fights. It’s not easy to look at an aging Volk and feel one of his weaker areas, wrestling defense, is shored up enough to thwart an undisputed contender in his prime.

Plus, while Evloev's not known for power, a stray right hand over the top could be Volkanovski’s worst nightmare when he’s shown an increasingly worse ability to eat punches.

Predict the Volkanovski vs. Evloev Winner at UFC 333 on PrizePicks.

Volkanovski vs. Evloev Pick for UFC 333

If you keep Volkanovski in his office, he’ll pick you apart.

In a sample spanning over 302 octagon minutes, the champ’s land rate of significant strikes per minute (5.99) seems straight from a video game. But that’s consistency and the knowledge that his knockdown rate (0.33 KD%) isn’t particularly high. He's got to win on points.

Siding with a “Less” on Volk’s significant strike count isn’t usually wise, but he’s averaged just 54.6 significant strikes in losses or fights where he was taken down multiple times. Evloev figures to deliver the latter.

Alexander Volkanovski – 81.5 Significant Strikes

Make Your Volkanovski vs. Evloev Pick for UFC 333 on PrizePicks.

Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili Prediction for UFC 333

Fight Winner Payouts: Petr Yan 1.63x | Merab Dvalishvili 2.17x

Weight Class: Bantamweight Championship Bout (135 pounds)

Yan vs. Dvalishvili Model Results:

Some of the most fascinating UFC predictions I have to make are rematches, trilogies, or the hyper-rare quadrilogy between longtime rivals. Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili’s rubber match is Saturday.

In March 2023, “The Machine” Dvalishvili’s ascent to the title picture was complete with a dominant, five-round decision win over Yan where he broke the UFC record for takedowns attempts in a fight.

Some of us saw, in real time, that the pace was ultimately one that was unstoppable and destined for gold:

From September 2024 to December 2025, the title belonged to the Georgian, whose pace of 17.06 takedown attempts per 15 minutes still really doesn’t make sense.

You could see the wear and tear of a long, four-fight 2025 schedule in his last fight with Yan, plummeting to just 29 takedown attempts in a lopsided beatdown:

The question becomes if Yan “figured out” Merab in that matchup. He stuffed 27 of those 29 attempts, landing 139 significant strikes with greater impact.

The master of sport in boxing has long been considered by some — especially true technical observers of UFC — as the best 135er on the planet, and his +0.92 SSR with elite striking accuracy (54%) and defense (59%) is not a bad argument.

Even if Yan gets his hand raised in the trilogy, you could argue that projections have overvalued the favorite each time in this matchup. Yan’s technical skill, incredible durability, and undeterred fight IQ meet Dvalishvili’s relentless pace, will to win, and greater athletic ceiling.

I suppose there’s an argument that Merab, 35, is past his prime, but I'm willing to hear out his argument that so many consecutive weight cuts took a toll on that last performance — and that this rematch can look much, much more like the first bout.

Predict the Yan vs. Dvalishvili Winner at UFC 333 on PrizePicks.

Yan vs. Dvalishvili Pick for UFC 333

Without really any sort of dangerous moments in 50 minutes, projections are through the roof on a full fight here. Petr Yan averaged 107.0 significant strikes in those two fights. Do we pack this up and go home?

I don’t think so. If Merab’s takedown volume is back to normal, it’s just really difficult to score significant strikes in close proximity, and the former champion’s control is getting better.

He scored a career-high mark in control time (10:02) two fights ago, and he’s attempted 4 submissions in his last six fights.

A vast majority of prognosticators can only see the last result when they close their eyes and envision a fight like this. Expect the unexpected.

Petr Yan – 94.5 Significant Strikes

Make Your Yan vs. Dvalishvili Pick for UFC 333 on PrizePicks.

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Lone’er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov Prediction for UFC 333

Fight Winner Payouts: Lone’er Kavanagh 1.85x | Ramazan Temirov 1.85x

Weight Class: Flyweight (125 pounds)

Kavanagh vs. Temirov Model Results:

Despite being just 27 years old, Lone’er Kavanagh is trying to avoid a third loss in four fights and defend his spot in the rankings. I guess that “prospect” label is long gone.

Kavanagh’s quick ascent from the Contender Series (DWCS) in 2024 to the rankings in 2026 is flatly remarkable, but he’s definitely had his growing pains inside the top 15.

Charles Johnson’s knockout was seen as a one-off fluke, but Brandon Royval turned the tables in a fight where Kavanagh was expected to step into the title picture:

Kavanagh had Royval rocked at one point and was ahead on the cards against Johnson. He’s inches from this fight being undefeated and a date with Josh Van, but the durability concerns already are very real.

A +0.19 SSR shows how tight the fights have been, and there’s the probability of a loss this weekend against Ramazan Temirov.

Uzbekistan’s Temirov is closest to becoming his country’s first champion. The journey outside of the cage, with a PED suspension, has honestly been more trying than the thunderous efforts inside the cage. Temirov’s 4.76 KD% leads the division among those with at least three bouts:

As the model suggests, the right hand of “Temurlin” opposite Kavanagh’s shaky chin gives the matchmakers plenty of hope for the result they’d want in Abu Dhabi — even if it’s just winning a round or two with a drop.

If this does get into deeper waters, the Englishman’s substantial high-level experience could pay enormous dividends. 

Predict the Kavanagh vs. Temirov Winner at UFC 333 on PrizePicks.

Kavanagh vs. Temirov Pick for UFC 333

Though having the reputation of a “boom or bust” proposition with the thunder in his strikes, Temirov already has a decision win and a 33.3% decision rate in UFC.

He had a -11 striking differential against the aforementioned Johnson, but the impact won him the decision. That’s not out of the realm of possibility against Kavanagh, who might survive hairy moments with 1.12 takedowns landed per 15 minutes on average.

The model’s verdict of a full fight 49.2% of the time is noteworthy for this minutes projection, which is set into Round 3.

Kavanagh vs. Temirov – 12.5 Minutes Fight Time

Make Your Kavanagh vs. Temirov Pick for UFC 333 on PrizePicks.

Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev Prediction for UFC 333

Fight Winner Payouts: Alexander Volkov 1.75x | Rizvan Kuniev 1.96x

Weight Class: Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Volkov vs. Kuniev Model Results:

In two different shapes, two of the largest fighters on the UFC roster will throw down on “Fight Island”.

6’7” Alexander Volkov might have had a regional opportunity in Russia to play basketball, but I’m glad he became a fighter instead. The stalwart of this division’s top five seems to continually push back up-and-comers, thwarting Waldo Cortes-Acosta’s bid for an interim title shot early in 2026:

That added to a hit list that also includes Sergei Pavlovich and Jailton Almeida. The kickboxer’s 80” reach is difficult to navigate in boxing or kicking range, which is how he has a +1.94 SSR at 37 years old despite a decade in UFC come this November.

We’ll see if Russia’s Rizvan Kuniev can solve the puzzle. Kuniev is definitely wide, but he’s got unusual quickness for a big man his size. We really weren’t sure what to make of his split-decision debut against Curtis Blaydes, but Blaydes keeps winning — and so does the Dagestani fighter.

He’s also turned away Almeida and Tyrell Fortune in the past year.

Volkov’s reputation precedes him, but the uneventful decision with Cortes-Acosta makes you wonder what might have happened if “Salsa Boy” hit the gas. An ultra-durable Kuniev, who has never been KO’d, usually presses forward, and his 0.81 KD% has made a statement or two thus far.

Considering the grappling upside also lies with the underdog, I think we’re in for a competitive fight that could well decide the next foe for Ciryl Gane or Josh Hokit, depending on who wins this division’s title next month.

Predict the Volkov vs. Kuniev Winner at UFC 333 on PrizePicks.

Volkov vs. Kuniev Pick for UFC 333

For a heavyweight, Volkov’s volume in a sample of over 246 octagon minutes is outstanding.

He lands 4.88 significant strikes per minute. While not many are thrown with fight-ending intentions, it’s maximizing his reach to win on points. He’s topped 80 significant strikes in three of his last five, and projections heavily favor this one to go the distance.

The problem with that line of thinking here is that Kuniev is a space-crowding expert. He’s limited five UFC-affiliated foes to 25.4 significant strikes per fight on average, and that’s with just 3 total takedowns. Even without flooring the fight, he’s happy to push against the cage and stall the fight.

That, plus the noteworthy model result about a Kuniev early finish (26.9% likely), may cause you to pause despite the physiological advantages Volkov will enjoy.

Alexander Volkov – 55.5 Significant Strikes

Make Your Volkov vs. Kuniev Pick for UFC 333 on PrizePicks.

Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita Prediction for UFC 333

Fight Winner Payouts: Aaron Pico 1.66x | Losene Keita 2.12x

Weight Class: Featherweight (145 pounds)

With just two combined UFC wins, you might be confused about Aaron Pico and Losene Keita’s presence on the main card. These martial artists are closer to featherweight’s top 10 than you think.

Of course, Pico was an oft-injured, tough-luck title challenger in Bellator, whose elite boxing and powerful wrestling always seemed to be thwarted in a timely fashion when he was so close to testing Patricio Pitbull for the belt.

Well, MMA nerds like me finally got our answer of what Pico-Pitbull would look like in the octagon, and it was a sensational performance from the Californian:

At this stage, the 30-year-old Jackson Wink product is just looking to protect his chin, responsible for four of his five pro losses, on his way to the top. Pico’s early returns on SSR (+3.05) and takedowns landed per 15 minutes (6.54) are sensational.

However, Losene Keita will test that chin in earnest. The former two-division OKTAGON MMA champion has 11 knockouts in 17 pro victories, and we finally got to see what it looked like under the bright lights against Muhammad Naimov, followed by one of the best celebrations ever:

Naimov, cut from UFC with a 5-4 record, was one challenge, but his -15 striking differential against Nathaniel Wood, a loser in August, hasn’t aged particularly well.

I’ve still got questions about his efficiency (-0.03 SSR) at this level of competition, but the power arrived in style.

Some pick ‘ems exist because the fight should be very competitive. This one is just because we don’t know which guy will look like a giant favorite in hindsight.

Pico’s boxing volume and wrestling are massive problems for a more deliberate Keita in an extended fight, but the durability concerns of the American aren’t something you can ever forget.

We’ll see if “Black Panther” can find the button before Pico finds his groove.

Predict the Pico vs. Keita Winner at UFC 333 on PrizePicks.

Pico vs. Keita Pick for UFC 333

In victory or defeat, Keita’s significant strike count may not be high.

He needed just 18 to land a pair of knockdowns against Naimov. It goes beyond that, though, where he landed just 52 in a fight with Nathaniel Wood that was entirely at a distance for 15 minutes despite his 3" reach edge. He’ll have 2" of reach on Pico.

Pico’s wrestling could really mute this total in a full decision as well. Pitbull landed just 6 ground strikes in April, and don’t forget Pico's pair of pro wins via submission, either.

Losene Keita – 26.5 Significant Strikes

Make Your Pico vs. Keita Pick for UFC 333 on PrizePicks.

Swaim’s UFC Predictive Model for UFC 333: How It Works

Above are the results from my predictive UFC model that uses historical UFC stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

The results for each fight are listed above as "model results."

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 30 minutes of octagon time or five completed UFC fights to be included in the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible for a result.

Each eligible UFC main card fight is listed with model data to help you make your UFC predictions on PrizePicks today.

‍Follow Austin Swaim for more UFC picks, predictions, and analysis.

All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.

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Make UFC 333 Predictions on PrizePicks

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev goes down this Saturday, with a stacked card of fighters who are looking to climb up the ranks or lift championship gold. Lock in your UFC predictions for Saturday's main card, which starts at 2 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Just go to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more UFC fighter projections for UFC 333, headlined by Volkanovski vs. Evloev, and lock in your lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.

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