Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili Prediction, Pick for UFC 333

Trilogies in the UFC are extremely rare. There have been just 20 total in the promotion’s history, and almost all of those have been in championship settings.

Saturday will be no different. We need a third bout between Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili, who have split two meetings thus far, in Abu Dhabi for the men’s bantamweight title.

The co-main event of UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev is expected to start around 3:45 p.m. ET on Paramount+, depending on when the other main card fights conclude.

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Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili Prediction, Preview for UFC 333 Co-Main Event

Below are the payouts for who will win the fight via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means that the result will pay out $200 on a $100 entry. 

Petr Yan: 1.63x

• By KO/TKO: 4.76x
• By Submission: 16.66x
• By Decision: 2.38x

Merab Dvalishvili: 2.17x

• By KO/TKO: 9.09x
• By Submission: 14.28x
• By Decision: 3.03x

‍Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks; a 1.5x payout is more likely than a 2x payout, which is more likely than a 4x payout, and so on.

Upsets have been the theme of a frantic, chaotic, 50-minute series between Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili to this stage, which makes it undeniable that we can’t be sure what is going to happen in their third bout.

Petr Yan’s improbable descent was finalized by Merab Dvalishvili in 2023. After losing the belt twice to Aljamain Sterling and getting hosed by judges against Sean O’Malley, Yan ran into a budding star nicknamed “The Machine,” who set the UFC record for takedown attempts (49) at The Virgin Hotels in Las Vegas:

Yan’s offense was completely suffocated despite defending 38 of those tries, and he lost on the scorecards. It became a wonder if anyone could dethrone Dvalisvhili, and up until their second meeting last December, no one had.

But, Yan — in a rematch he’d been planning for years — had more breathing space. For whatever reason, the Georgian attempted just 29 takedowns, allowing Yan to land 139 significant strikes and 5 takedowns of his own. He clearly scored the decision, but some moments were close to stopping the bout:

Yan believes he’s figured out Dvalishvili’s style, but “The Machine” is of the mindset that four weight cuts in a calendar year sapped the best version of himself and that the trilogy will look more like the first fight. We’ll find out the answer to whose claim is right on Saturday.

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How Petr Yan Wins vs. Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 333

Many consider Petr Yan the most technical, perfect fighter on the UFC roster.

The 33-year-old has never been stopped in 25 pro fights. He’s a Russian “master of sport” in boxing. His striking accuracy (54%) and defense (59%) are superb, resulting in a +0.92 striking success rate (SSR) despite a half-decade in the top five.

So, how does he lose fights? At times, Yan has been too patient and measured for his own good. He landed less than 4.00 significant strikes per minute in those three consecutive losses, including the suffocation by Merab. The anger and sense of urgency he displayed in the rematch was uncharacteristic.

“Stuff the takedowns” isn’t really necessary advice for him. He’s stuffed 94.9% of Dvalishvili’s 68 attempts in two fights. He knows what he’s doing. It’s just a matter of maintaining his own offense instead of getting lulled into a defensive mode.

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How Merab Dvalishvili Wins vs. Petr Yan at UFC 333

Similarly, Merab needs to make this fight look far more like his win inside the series.

His 49 takedown attempts are still a record to this day because they don't seem real. That is 1.96 per minute, and that many failed efforts usually would badly fatigue someone. Dvalishvili’s special gift is his cardio, though, and it needs to be much better than it was in December when his volume plummeted.

That means that a majority of his path to success is predetermined by this training camp, but staying sharp on entries against Yan’s knees and elbows is a must. He wore too much damage last December, trusting what has been legendary durability.

Merab is 35, so I don’t think “elite top control” to keep Yan floored is coming at this stage. But, it probably would help him salt away the clock to do a better job securing position against Yan with takedowns rather than just simply scoring them.

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Yan vs. Dvalishvili Prediction for UFC 333 Co-Main Event

Swaim’s Predictive UFC Model: How It Works

I’ve developed a predictive UFC model that uses pre-fight stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 30 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be run through the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible. 

Yan vs. Dvalishvili Model Results

In three fights between these two, projections and public perception continue to overreact to outcomes when my model, which had Yan at 35.6% likely to win in December, has stayed more stagnant.

The 10.9 percentage-point boost for Yan from last time comes from his own momentum and further dwarfing Merab's takedown accuracy (35%). His win streak was pushed to four, and it’s going to reward that performance inside the top five.

But I still have Dvalishvili as a slight favorite here. It’s hard for a rational, analytical model to pick against a guy attempting an unprecedented 17.06 takedowns per 15 minutes, swallowing the opposing fighter’s offense whole (in theory).

A verdict of a full fight 61.1% of the time isn’t surprising — but it lags behind projections. Some of that is Merab’s increasing age with Yan’s elite striking efficiency. Some of that is Merab’s boosted submission volume, attempting 4 in his last six fights. He’s the only one to submit Sean O’Malley.

The model looks at career aggregate averages. If Dvalishvili is “back to normal,” I don’t disagree with its verdict.

Yan vs. Dvalishvili Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Petr Yan – 94.5 Significant Strikes

This is fascinating to me.

Even in defeat (75) and victory (139), Yan has averaged close to this total in two full, 25-minute fights. This bout is a heavy favorite to meet the same end, and anyone can take an average of those two marks.

I just don’t think it’s that simple. One round of top control opposite 35-to-40 takedown attempts can completely squash scoring numbers, and it just hasn’t happened yet. Yan has been defensively perfect. What if he’s not?

Plus, if Yan truly has Dvalishvili “figured out,” who is to say he doesn’t find a (T)KO before the duration he needs to reach this lofty mark?

Because people tend to only envision the last outcome as fighters rematch, a Less here isn’t even a consideration for most. I would not narrow my thinking in a cagefight filled with variance.

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Make Your Yan vs. Dvalishvili Picks on PrizePicks

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev’s co-main event goes down this Saturday from the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi! Before the fight gets underway on Paramount+, lock in your UFC predictions for the fight.

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All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.