UFC Edmonton Predictions – Buckley vs. Malott & All Main Card Fights Tonight

A Canadiaen fighter hasn’t lifted UFC gold since 2017. A retiring Georges St-Pierre became a two-division champion with a win over Michael Bisping. That dry spell is most prominently in danger thanks to one “Proper” Mike Malott.

Malott is 11th in the UFC rankings after his first career ranked win in April, but to crack the top 10, he’ll have to avoid the dynamic power of “New Mansa” Joaquin Buckley on home soil on Saturday, October 17.

The UFC Edmonton main card features six fights, with Malott a slight favorite over Buckley in the main event, according to PrizePicks Team Picks payouts.

In the UFC Fight Night co-main event, women’s flyweight contenders clash for the next shot at the championship. New Jersey grinder Erin Blanchfield will look to impose her will on Canadian grappler Jasmine Jasudavicius.

The UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott main card in Edmonton starts Saturday evening at 8:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, and we’re breaking down every fight with UFC Edmonton predictions, predictive model analysis, and PrizePicks UFC picks for Buckley vs. Silva and the rest of the main card.

Make your UFC Edmonton predictions on PrizePicks for every fight — including winners!

{{ufc_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

UFC Edmonton Predictions for Buckley vs. Malott & Main Card Fights

Before we get into our UFC Edmonton predictions for Saturday, here’s a brief intro on what you'll find below.

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Allen’s main card is expected to start at 8:00 p.m. ET with the first main card fight. Here’s a full rundown of the proceedings:

• Main Event: Joaquin Buckley vs. Mike Malott — Welterweight
• Co-Main Event: Erin Blanchfield vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius — Women’s Flyweight
• Kyle Nelson vs. Cristian Perez  — Lightweight
• Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Kyle Daukaus — Middleweight
• Louis Jourdain vs. Timmy Cuamba — Bantamweight
• Mandel Nallo vs. Nate Landwehr — Lightweight

We’ll list the payouts for who will win each UFC Edmonton main card fight, via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means the result will payout $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

PrizePicks Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. UFC winner markets are available in 35 states, including Florida, California, and Texas! 

Learn more about Austin Swaim's UFC model here, with all eligible results included below.

Joaquin Buckley vs. Mike Malott Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Joaquin Buckley 2.04x | Mike Malott 1.72x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Welterweight (170 lbs.)

Buckley vs. Malott Model Results:

For years, the UFC has been trying to build such an impactful media market in Canada. Many of the sport’s top media voices, like Ariel Helwani and Aaron Bronsteter, wave a Maple Leaf flag with pride, and Georges St-Pierre is one of the sport’s all-time greatest athletes.

They’ve just struggled to find an actual contender in the octagon for nearly a decade. ”Proper” Mike Malott is trying to change that.

Malott earned a fourth-straight win with an April knockout of Gilbert Burns in Winnipeg, and the welterweight contender could realistically be unbeaten if his gas tank didn’t expire with 15 seconds to go in a fight he was winning versus Neil Magny. 

Training with Team Alpha Male in Sacramento, the Canadian is a dynamic threat to finish the fight wherever it goes by way of a 1.66% knockdown rate (KD%) or 0.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Looking to play spoiler north of the border, Joaquin Buckley is hoping to end a two-fight losing skid, as his grappling defense has failed him in consecutive fights against Kamaru Usman and Sean Brady. They were decision losses, but he’s undoubtedly without momentum.

Buckley’s statistical profile isn’t great for someone with wrestling woes, landing just 3.62 significant strikes per minute with poor accuracy (36%). But, as was the case in one of the best UFC knockouts ever, “New Mansa” knows just one dynamic strike is quite literally all he needs.

Conventional wisdom in this fight is that Malott, who has had no issue flooring fights (50% takedown accuracy), can take the path of least resistance, but he’s also the more efficient boxer, has an advantage at kicking range, and has dropped five foes while never getting knocked down himself.

If his chin holds in this particular matchup, it’s hard not seeing him having success winning minutes against Buckley. Can he finish the durable American? That’s a different question — but would be exactly the statement he needs to move toward the title picture.

Predict the Buckley vs. Malott Winner at UFC Edmonton on PrizePicks

Buckley vs. Malott Pick for UFC Fight Night

Joaquin Buckley — 48.5 Significant Strikes

Buckley is absolutely a “quality over quantity” guy, throwing heat into the few strikes he lands with bad intentions at distance.

The St. Louis-born fighter’s low volume comes from several factors. He’s not particularly accurate and doesn’t use kicks effectively, limiting his striking output in extended combinations.

Plus, he’s landed just 44 significant strikes total in his last two fights, surrendering 8 total takedowns. Malott has rarely sold out for an entirely wrestling-heavy approach, and it’s a taxing style in a 25-minute fight, but it’s a factor that could limit New Mansa’s output.

Another factor? The game-changing power we’ve seen from the Canadian via three UFC knockouts.

Make Your Buckley vs. Malott Pick for UFC Edmonton on PrizePicks

{{ufc_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Erin Blanchfield vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Erin Blanchfield 1.26x | Jasmine Jasudavicius 3.57x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Women’s Flyweight (125 lbs.)

Blanchfield vs. Jasudavicius Model Results:

A motivated, ticked-off “Cold-Blooded” Erin Blanchfield should be a sight to behold on Saturday.

Blanchfield is a two-time UFC headliner with four ranked wins. She had to feel slighted when Wang Cong, with one decision ranked win over a foe that Blanchfield submitted, got a title opportunity in Utah earlier this month just because of Dana White’s bias against her grappling approach.

But, frankly, that sells the New Jersey native short. She attempts 11.91 significant strikes per minute and lands a decent bit of them (44%) with a small-but-mighty kickboxing attack, which sets up her ground game.

At 27, she'll get smoke from this division's top contenders for years. On Saturday, 37-year-old Jasmine Jasudavicius will look to thrill the home crowd with a win that starts one last run toward the top.

“Jas” is not a fighter you want to grapple with all too often. In fact, the Canadian averages more takedowns landed per 15 minutes (2.63) with better accuracy (46%) than Blanchfield, and she’s shown the ability to finish smaller foes:

It’s Jasudavicius’ standup that has been an immense problem. Her +0.01 striking success rate (SSR) comes with the context that she has a whopping -105 striking differential in her three UFC losses.

Things happen in life for a reason, and I think this matchup actually gives Blanchfield to show off a more entertaining approach that will please UFC brass. She’s the significantly more voluminous striker with stronger takedown defense (78%). This might be the first fight of her career she wants to keep at kickboxing range; the larger underdog can likely fight much more competitively in the clinch.

Predict the Blanchfield vs. Jasudavicius Winner at UFC Edmonton on PrizePicks

Blanchfield vs. Jasudavicius Pick for UFC Fight Night

Erin Blanchfield — 55.5 Significant Strikes

For someone with a bit of a ground-heavy, boring reputation, Erin Blanchfield has averaged 80.8 significant strikes in her last five bouts, and this is — arguably — the easiest standup matchup of them all.

The reach disparity (2”) is not as severe for Blanchfield, 5’4”, as it can be in other matchups, and Jas has struggled mightily with ranked fighters at range as I mentioned. Beyond the differential, her opponents have landed 70.7 significant strikes on average in these matchups.

Perhaps Blanchfield’s total is compromised by her own approach and instinct, but I think she’s heard the whispers about not being “fun” enough to challenge Natalia Silva. We’ll see what the statement looks like on Saturday.

Make Your Blanchfield vs. Jasudavicius Pick for UFC Edmonton on PrizePicks

Kyle Nelson vs. Cristian Perez Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Kyle Nelson 3.57x | Cristian Perez 1.26x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs.)

If you made a list of the top-10 prospects off this latest season of Dana White’s Contender Series, Cristian Perez would likely be on it.

The Mexican prospect had to return for a second bid on DWCS after running into Manoel Sousa (2-0 UFC) in 2024. It’s safe to say he made the most of the opportunity.

That big left hand is probably not even the most interesting part of Perez’s game. The “Goat Shed” product has excellent wrestling and conditioning, sinking in six pro submissions. He’s finished 12 of his 14 wins as a professional.

For what the favorite has in raw talent, he’ll have to overcome a significant experience gap (and friendly home crowd) behind Kyle “The Monster” Nelson.

Nelson’s rebound from a 1-4-1 UFC start to stick on the roster since 2018 is incredibly admirable. The grinder has upset DWCS prospects like Fernando Padilla and Blake Bilder before, but that was at featherweight. Now 35 years old, Nelson fights at 155 pounds rather than making that tough cut to 145.

He got a win against Matt Frevola in his return to the division, but his fight with Terrance McKinney after did not go well.

UFC has done an immense favor to Nelson to get him as much support in Alberta as possible, but his 66% takedown defense should be under attack from the opening bell. Perez’s striking defense (39%) wasn’t ideal in a small sample, but I don’t want it to sway me away from the obvious athletic advantages an eight-year age gap provides.

Predict the Nelson vs. Perez Winner at UFC Edmonton on PrizePicks

{{ufc_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Nelson vs. Perez Pick for UFC Fight Night

Kyle Nelson — 20.5 Significant Strikes

Just lazily doing some math on the surface, Nelson has topped this mark in five of his last seven bouts, and both of Perez’s DWCS foes exceeded 40 significant strikes. What’s not to like?

Well, in two of his three lightweight appearances, Nelson has failed to eclipse 20 significant strikes and been knocked out. The Frevola fight is the lone outlier, but here’s a dangerous, upstart contender.

Nelson has been stopped before 15 minutes in five of his seven losses. I’ve often called him a bad “nail” for opponents who try to be the “hammer”. Perez’s aggressive past suggests that's his gameplan.

Make your Nelson vs. Perez Pick for UFC Edmonton on PrizePicks

Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Kyle Daukaus Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Marc-Andre Barriault 2.56x | Kyle Daukaus 1.47x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Middleweight (185 lbs.)

Barriault vs. Daukaus Model Results:

What else could we ask for than two middleweights who are primed for war?

This is a pivotal matchup for both Marc-Andre Barriault (6-10 UFC) and Kyle Daukaus (4-5 UFC) to hang on the roster. You don’t want to get too far below a winning record.

The hometown guy in this matchup is a fun watch. Barriault’s record has included 5 ranked or formerly ranked fighters in his last 11 fights, so judging him off wins and losses alone would be foolish. His -0.29 SSR is far more normal, and he’s broken several foes with an elite pace of 12.02 significant strikes attempted per minute as a middleweight.

Barriault’s struggles have largely come from a lack of power (0.40%), poor striking defense (49%), and occasional grappling lapses. It’s really tough to be in a firefight without a devastating hook, but if this fight gets in deeper waters, watch out.

Daukaus, though, is an intriguing matchup for him. The Philadelphian is also a builder that prefers fights to start Round 3. He’s been KO’d in three of his five UFC losses, and at 33, that attrition is very real. It’s what allowed Bo Nickal to score a highlight on The White House lawn:

However, if his chin holds early, you could argue the favorite has a top-15 skillset. He had a competitive decision with Brendan Allen and has KO’d both Michel Pereira and Gerald Meerschaert in this current second stint with UFC.

Barriault, 37, is no spring chicken, either, so variance is extremely high in what figures to be a grueling, high-paced fight. This is a rare spot where the Canadian would be better served to test Daukaus’ chin early rather than later, where his 69% takedown D could have already allowed “The D’Arce Knight” to find openings for his patented choke.

Predict the Barriault vs. Daukaus Winner at UFC Edmonton on PrizePicks

Barriault vs. Daukaus Pick for UFC Fight Night

Barriault vs. Daukaus — 9.25 Minutes Fight Time

As career attrition and my model result for some sort of early stoppage (67.1% likely) suggest, one of these large dudes is likely going down at some point via some method. Balancing this minute mark around the end of Round 2 is interesting, though.

Barriault has just one first-round win but three first-round losses in his 16 UFC appearances, and Daukaus has yet to be outside the first five minutes since returning to UFC. It’s plausible a win for the favorite comes early.

But, if you like the hometown guy, he’s reached the nine-minute mark in 11 of those 16 appearances overall. He builds as the fight progresses, and a longer Daukaus win on the back of grinding out takedown attempts (7.88 per 15 minutes) wouldn’t be surprising, either.

Make Your Barriault vs. Daukaus Pick for UFC Edmonton on PrizePicks

Louis Jourdain vs. Timmy Cuamba Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Louis Jourdain 1.53x | Timmy Cuamba 2.38x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 lbs.)

It’s a brotherly affair in Edmonton. For years, Canadian crowds have been treated to Charles “Air” Jourdain’s best efforts, and his brother makes his UFC debut on Saturday.

It’s fair to say folks are excited up north about “The Mad Prince”, who spars with his brother in the same weight class. Jourdain was featured on 2025’s season of DWCS, and he dominated to land 7.32 significant strikes per minute and score a third-round submission:

Those weapons are really reminiscent of his brother, but I’ll be wondering if some of the bad, including poor takedown defense and durability concerns, also translates fraternally.

We’ll see if he can likely end what has been a promising but inconsistent UFC run for “Twilight” Timmy Cuamba. The Xtreme Couture product is fighting for his job after a 2-3 run that has now transitioned to 135 pounds. Unfortunately, he ran into a top-15 contender, Bernado Sopaj, in his divisional debut.

However, we’ve seen some incredible highlights from Cuamba mixed around frustrating, low-volume decision losses. After appearing on DWCS at 23 years old, the growing pains have been as evident as the flashes of brilliance.

As a result of moving down in weight, Cuamba is massive for this division, and his striking (55%) and takedown (71%) defense are as solid as you’d expect for a disciple of Eric Nicksick. I think this is a dangerous fight for Jourdain despite the UFC, obviously, putting him in a spot where they’d hope he succeeds. They'd like to potentially build up another Canadian star.

Predict the Jourdain vs. Cuamba Winner at UFC Edmonton on PrizePicks

Jourdain vs. Cuamba Pick for UFC Fight Night

Timmy Cuamba — 35.5 Significant Strikes

One reason Cuamba’s move to bantamweight is so exciting is that he’s no longer on the wrong end of massive reach disparities against his boxing.

His overall rate of significant strikes landed per minute (2.88) is poor, but that land rate was already 3.87 per minute against Sopaj in his first bantamweight appearance.

Jourdain didn’t seem to have game-changing power in his DWCS, going to the third round with a total unknown. In victory or defeat, Nicksick’s pupil can hang around to rack up significant strikes and could blow this projection out of the water if Jourdain’s striking D isn’t nearly as good as expected.

Make Your Jourdain vs. Cuamba Pick for UFC Edmonton on PrizePicks

{{ufc_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Mandell Nallo vs. Nate Landwehr Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Mandel Nallo 1.33x | Nate Landwehr 3.12x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs.)

Someone is probably going to sleep in the main card opener at 155. Mandel Nallo and Nate Landwehr’s six combined UFC-affiliated appearances since the start of 2024 have all been knockouts, which is not overly surprising for two aging strikers with power.

This is an important fight for both, but Nallo has to be feeling the pressure after a promotional debut in April that felt like a bag-fumble.

In Winnipeg, Nallo dropped Jai Herbert early, but in his aggressive swarm, he was clipped and hurt by the Englishman and lost as one of the card’s prohibitive favorites:

The 37-year-old hasn’t been outside Round 1 in six straight pro appearances, but questions remain about the former Bellator alum at this level. His last four victories have come over opponents with a combined 41 (!) pro losses. I’m not even sure a KO of Landwehr affirms his standing on the roster.

But, that would be a sad end for a fan favorite. “Nate the Train” has lost via knockout in three straight, but the defeats coming at the hands of Dooho Choi, Cub Swanson, and Morgan Charriere is far from embarrassing. In fact, his last win over Jamall Emmers (6-5 UFC) hasn’t aged poorly at all:

This is Landwehr’s first appearance in UFC at lightweight. A challenging weight cut might have compromised what had been pretty solid durability before the age of 36, so it’s possible he’s now able to get back in the fire with better ability to take shots. Or, the larger guys in this weight class might make it worse. It varies for every fighter.

It’s really hard to forecast this as anything but a slobberknocker. In terms of significant strikes landed per minute, both Nallo (8.26) and Landwehr (5.55) have been all gas and no brakes for years.

I understand Nallo’s placement as a favorite. He's the slightly younger, larger guy in Canada, but when he was dropped twice in less than five minutes in his official debut, it’s sort of hard to not look at The Train’s body of work against high-level guys like Emmers, David Onama, and Ludovit Klein and wonder if an upset is brewing.

Predict the Nallo vs. Landwehr Winner at UFC Edmonton on PrizePicks

Nallo vs. Landwehr Pick for UFC Fight Night

Nallo vs. Landwehr — 3.75 Minutes Fight Time

Projections are based on my assessment of this matchup. When two guys are willing to go out cold from the opening bell, the fight typically doesn’t last long.

But it’s not as if these two have been immune to outliers, and 3.75 minutes is a projection that leaves zero margin for error when these veterans are aggressive — not dumb.

Since the start of 2023, Landwehr’s average fight time is 9.47 minutes. Nallo’s is 5.32 minutes. I’ve mentioned the run of finishes they’ve been on recently, so is that just extreme bias toward the most recent results? We’ll find out when the cage is locked.

Make Your Nallo vs. Landwehr Pick for UFC Edmonton on PrizePicks

Swaim’s UFC Predictive Model for UFC Fight Night: How It Works

Above are the results from my predictive UFC model that uses historical UFC stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

The results for each fight are listed above as "model results".

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 30 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be included in the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible for a result.

Each eligible UFC Fight Night main card fight is listed with model data to help you make your UFC predictions on PrizePicks today.

‍Follow Austin Swaim for more UFC picks, predictions, and analysis.

All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.

Make UFC  Predictions on PrizePicks

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott goes down this Saturday, with a stacked card of fighters, including several Canadians on home soil, all looking to climb the ranks into contender status.

Make your UFC predictions for today's main card, which starts at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Go to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more UFC fighter projections for UFC Edmonton, headlined by Buckley vs. Malott, and lock in your lineup to win real money if you're right.

You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money, available in 35 states!

Stay tapped into Playbook for more UFC predictions, picks, and analysis for every card, every weekend.