While the world’s combat sports leader does a nice job with main events on featured cards, some feel bigger than others. The return of “The Notorious” Conor McGregor to the UFC octagon is about as big as it gets.
The Irish MMA icon has been outside of the octagon for over five years, but he’ll end his layoff in Saturday’s UFC 329 main event against Max “Blessed” Holloway.
These two former featherweight champions will move up in weight to square off at welterweight. Holloway is looking to avenge a 2013 loss to McGregor that preceded his title reign, and McGregor is looking to return to the top 10 of one of the sport’s most competitive divisions.
To celebrate McGregor's return, PrizePicks is offering a special promo for Conor McGregor’s fight time, discounted to just 5 minutes, down from 12.5! Click here to claim the UFC 329 promo on PrizePicks and claim $50 instantly if it's your first time!
The main event of UFC 329: Holloway vs. McGregor 2 is expected to start around 11:30 p.m. EST on Paramount+, depending on when the other main card fights conclude.
Below, find our Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway prediction and free pick for the the most coveted return to the octagon in the sport's history at UFC 329.
Make your UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway picks on winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks!
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Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway Prediction, Preview for UFC 329 Main Event
Below are the payouts for who will win the McGregor vs. Holloway fight via PrizePicks Team Picks. Holloway enters as a favorite over McGregor, though the market has become far tighter in favor of the Irishman since the fight was announced.
Conor McGregor: 2.56x
- By KO/TKO: 3.33x
- By Submission: 16.66x
- By Decision: 8.33x
Max Holloway: 1.47x
- By KO/TKO: 1.85x
- By Submission: 14.28x
- By Decision: 6.66x
Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks; a 1.5x payout is more likely than a 2x payout, which is more likely than a 4x payout, and so on.
Conor McGregor brought me to the sport of UFC, and for that, I’ll be eternally grateful.
It was hard to ignore the brash, trash-talking Irishman, who seemed to perpetually back up the words with unbelievable, violent knockouts. One of the most dominant, inhuman performances I’ve ever seen was his lightweight conquest of Eddie Alvarez to become the first UFC fighter ever to hold two championship belts at once:
Of course, it’s been a turbulent road since for “The Notorious”. He lost a boxing match to Floyd Mayweather in 2017, was submitted by Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2018 to lose the title, and lost both recent chapters of his trilogy with Dustin Poirier.
McGregor's only win since Alvarez was a weathered Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone in 2020.
Returning against a guy like Max “Blessed” Holloway is a brutal assignment — even if Holloway’s recent resume against championship-level competition isn’t perfect. These two’s 2013 matchup holds almost no value in forecasting this one, as weight classes and skill sets have evolved.
Holloway is UFC’s all-time leader in total strikes (3,980) and significant strikes landed in a single fight (425). He’s as notable as a “war it out on the feet” MMA fighter that has ever existed, which is why he got a 2024 shot at the “BMF” title against Justin Gaethje and won it with one of the most iconic knockouts in the history of the sport:
Historically, McGregor and Holloway like to strike. Conor’s 2.17% knockdown rate (KD%) represents elite power, and Max Holloway’s +2.30 striking success rate (SSR) represents elite efficiency. If McGregor is in proper form, this could be an absolute banger.
Find UFC 329 Predictions & Picks for every main card fight here
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How Conor McGregor Wins vs. Max Holloway at UFC 329
Make no mistake. There definitely is a chance Conor McGregor wins if he’s true to his word about a renewed training regimen. A checkered past leaves that to doubt, though.
McGregor’s left hand is one of the most lethal to ever grace the octagon. Even in defeat, he stunned Nurmagomedov and Poirier in moments. However, the sport has evolved significantly in the last decade, so McGregor’s first path to competition lies in the basics.
Avoiding the leg kicks that cost him against Poirier is the first step. He used four takedowns to defeat Holloway in his first fight, and Max — now competing at 170 pounds (14 pounds higher than his career high)— is coming off a fight where Charles Oliveira totaled 5 takedowns, 4 submission attempts, and 20:49 in control time. A ground-oriented approach could serve “The Irishman” well as a changeup.
Above all, I think Conor has to be mindful of his gas tank. Trying to (T)KO a guy like Holloway, who won’t cut any weight and has lost just one of his 31 UFC starts by knockout, is probably a fool’s errand. McGregor needs to win this fight in individual moments and compounding damage — not with one big shot.
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How Max Holloway Wins vs. Conor McGregor at UFC 329
Max Holloway is a fighter who, famously, doesn’t spar. That means he doesn’t practice fighting with small gloves and live shots. That could explain his historical durability and longevity.
However, that means he’s usually patient. 10 of Holloway’s last 12 fights have gone the full distance, and almost all were five-round fights. He cannot get caught napping early against a power threat like McGregor — especially at welterweight after verified use of banned substances.
Overall, Holloway’s 81% takedown defense isn’t as bad as Oliveira made it look, but it is a point of emphasis in shutting down one of McGregor’s win paths.
Ultimately, Holloway knocked out the current 155-pound champion less than two years ago. That’s the form we’re talking about — opposite a guy who hasn’t fought in combat sports since 2021.
Extending the fight should greatly favor Holloway’s recent experience and conditioning.
Make your McGregor vs. Holloway Prediction on PrizePicks
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McGregor vs. Holloway Prediction for UFC 329 Main Event Tonight
I’ve developed a predictive UFC model that uses pre-fight stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.
Below are the results and my full prediction for the McGregor vs. Holloway fight.
McGregor vs. Holloway Model Results for UFC 329
I modeled nine fights on Saturday’s card, and this was easily the most stunning.
That’s because, flatly, McGregor should have gotten a pass from an analytical model for a lot of the concerns he carries. My model doesn’t account for weight-class changes because there’s no consistency in how they affect fighters.
He’s the experienced fighter at 170 pounds, going 1-1 with UFC so far. The fight being at this weight is a huge help to him.
It doesn’t punish layoffs, which is a huge concern for McGregor and isn't baked into projections.
Yet, despite all of that, I’ve got Holloway 70.2% likely to win because of his recent level of competition, recent form, insane striking volume, and unmistakable efficiency. If there’s one drawback for Holloway, it’s a low 0.33 KD% due to a lack of power.
It’s really hard to look at this result and not think that McGregor’s popularity is factored into expectations. If you look at Holloway’s resume for the early knockout loss, it simply doesn’t exist. Without that, the Irishman’s path to victory is much tougher to forecast.
A 19.0% projection for a Holloway sub was peculiar to me, but it’s the model remembering what I had forgotten. McGregor has proven to be very durable, and four of his six pro losses have come via submission. Poirier is the only fighter to defeat him in any other fashion.
Make your UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway prediction on winner and method of victory on PrizePicks
McGregor vs. Holloway Pick for PrizePicks UFC
Conor McGregor – 5 Minutes Fight Time
PrizePicks’ discount on McGregor’s fight time projection certainly helps clear up a tough decision on the original mark (12.5) — discounted to 5 minutes (or just one round).
That’s just due to all of the “unknowns” around Conor’s return, including conditioning, weight class, physical state, potential injury risk, and current level of power.
The model’s projection of a 40.0% probability for a full fight would require a tough decision on 12.5 minutes. 5 minutes is a bargain, though, as is the case for PrizePicks Discounts.
If anything, Holloway’s stability would be the factor on which you’d rest comfortably taking the discounted projection.
I mentioned his bonafide history of full 25-minute decisions, but the exceptions also entered Round 3. The Gaethje exception was a single second away from a decision. He’s just not a guy who carries a lot of fight-ending tools in a vacuum.
If the favorite’s chin holds, an early stoppage is almost certainly McGregor waving the white flag. That happening within the first five minutes would be shocking. Almost every MMA athlete brings gas for a full round.
Make your UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway prediction on PrizePicks to win real money if you're right!
Make Your McGregor vs. Holloway Picks on PrizePicks
UFC 329’s main event goes down this Saturday from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas! Before the fight gets underway on Paramount+, lock in your UFC predictions for the fight.
Head over to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more fighter projections in McGregor vs. Holloway, and lock in your Lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.
With the McGregor vs. Holloway fight time discount on PrizePicks, it's even easier to cash in on this weekend's electric UFC 329 fight card.
You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 35 states.
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