UFC 329 Main Card Predictions for McGregor vs. Holloway, Paddy vs. BSD

The UFC's largest superstar makes his long-awaited return on Saturday.

“The Notorious” Conor McGregor is set to fight for the first time since 2021 after years of legal battles and injuries. The Irish striking sensation became a global icon in a run toward two divisional UFC belts a decade ago, and he’ll look to prove he’s got plenty left in the tank against former featherweight champion Max Holloway.

The UFC 329 main card features five thrilling fights, with Holloway a moderate favorite over McGregor in the main event, according to user picks on PrizePicks Team Picks.

In the UFC 329 co-main event, charismatic English grappler Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett will look to bounce back from his recent loss vs. French marauder Benoit Saint Denis.

The UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 main card starts on Saturday night at 9 p.m. ET on Paramount+, and we’re breaking down every fight with UFC 329 predictions, predictive model analysis, and PrizePicks UFC picks for McGregor vs. Holloway and the rest of the main card.

Make your UFC 329 predictions on PrizePicks on winners, method of victory, significant strikes, and more!

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UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 Main Fight Card Preview

Before we get into our UFC 329 main card predictions for tonight, here’s a brief intro on what you'll find below.

UFC 329’s main card is expected to start at 9 p.m. ET with the first main card fight. The McGregor vs. Holloway fight is expected to start at 11:30 p.m. ET, depending on when other fights end. Here’s a full rundown of the proceedings tonight:

• Main Event: Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway – Welterweight
• Co-Main: Benoit Saint Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett – Lightweight
• Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista – Bantamweight
• Brandon Royval vs. Lone’er Kavanagh – Flyweight
• King Green vs. Terrance McKinney – Lightweight

We’ll list the payouts for who will win each UFC 329 main card fight, via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means the result will payout $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

PrizePicks Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. UFC winner markets are available in 35 states, including Florida, California, and Texas! 

Learn more about Austin Swaim's UFC model here, with all eligible results included below.

Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway Prediction for UFC 329

Fight Winner Payouts: Conor McGregor 2.56x | Max Holloway 1.47x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Welterweight (170 lbs.)

McGregor vs. Holloway Model Results:

I have to be honest. I can’t believe Conor McGregor is actually back in the octagon after a five-year layoff that feels much longer because of the condition in which we last saw him.

McGregor lost a two-part series with Dustin Poirier, but the second fight was via an unconvincing, anti-climactic leg break.

Unfortunately, PED abuse and legal issues marred the global superstar to the point where his lone scheduled fight before this was in 2024 against Michael Chandler, and it fell through. 

Now at 37 years old, I’m really not sure what state the former “double champ” will be in for this bout. Is this a money grab? Is it truly a reformed run at the title?

He’ll certainly have the advantage competing at 170 pounds, a weight class where he’s 1-1 in MMA to Max Holloway’s 0-0.

Holloway landed the golden goose many fighters sought: an undeniable payday against McGregor. The former featherweight champion felt a combined five defeats in title fights opposite Alexander Volkanovski, Ilia Topuria, and Charles Oliveira, but he’s a gamer who conquered the “BMF” title with arguably the most iconic knockout in UFC history:

McGregor actually defeated Holloway in 2013 via unanimous decision, so these two have crossed paths before. That was so long ago, though, that its impact on the predictability of this fight is pretty minimal.

Holloway's defeat of the current 155-pound champion within the last two years shows the level he’s still competing at, so this is a brutal challenger for McGregor.

But McGregor's power and reach advantages, plus his historical wrestling efficiency (55%), definitely give him openings for success when Holloway is coming off a dismal fight in which he allowed 5 takedowns to Oliveira.

Predict the McGregor vs. Holloway Winner at UFC 329 on PrizePicks

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McGregor vs. Holloway Pick for UFC 329

Conor McGregor – 5 Minutes Fight Time (PrizePicks Promo)

To celebrate Saturday’s return, PrizePicks has discounted Conor McGregor’s fight time prop to just 5 minutes — down from 12.5 minutes. Click here for more details about McGregor’s discount.

Even at the normal projection of 12.5 minutes, the length of this fight will correlate strongly with many of the “unknowns” we discuss with Conor in his first fight in five years.

Knowing his endurance might be compromised due to age and muscle mass, is the Irishman’s plan just to try to knock Holloway’s dome off early? That could spell trouble even into Round 2 in terms of his ability to survive when Holloway, at 6.91 significant strikes landed per minute, mostly never stops firing.

However, a more measured approach could make this appearance much longer than expected. Holloway’s 0.33% knockdown rate (KD%) is tiny, and he’s only been KO’d once as a pro himself. Does McGregor try to wrestle as he did in a full 15-minute affair between these two years ago?

Having not seen McGregor compete in a half-decade, most of us have legitimately no idea. The model’s best guess — a 40.0% probability that this fight goes the 25-minute distance — certainly verifies that the discount from PrizePicks is helpful.

Make Your McGregor vs. Holloway Pick for UFC 329 on PrizePicks

Benoit Saint Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett Prediction for UFC 329

Fight Winner Payouts: Benoit Saint Denis 1.66x | Paddy Pimblett 2.08x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs.)

Saint Denis vs. Pimblett Model Results:

It’s fitting that Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett will compete on McGregor’s return card. Between the accent, pre-UFC career in Europe, and all-action style, he’s probably the closest thing to the Irish star we’ve seen in UFC since his departure.

Pimblett’s loss in January to Justin Gaethje certainly didn’t age poorly after Gaethje captured this division’s title at The White House in June. That said, it was still the first UFC setback for the Englishman and exposed some real flaws with striking defense and endurance:

In what seems to be a title eliminator, Paddy’s next test will be “The God of War”. Benoit Saint Denis is a can’t-miss television program with his non-stop pressuring style — even at times at the cost of his facial tissue:

The former French special forces member is a relentless grappler, posting 4.19 takedowns and 1.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes. He’s coming off two consecutive submission stoppages over Mauricio Ruffy and Dan Hooker inside the rankings.

Pimblett, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, is conceivably a huge step up in grappling competition for BSD.

The problem has been his willingness to rely on it, per a 44% takedown defense. If Saint Denis can secure an early top position and wilt his gas tank, it could be a long night for the blonde wigs in the crowd.

However, Saint Denis’ borderline reckless approach will always leave openings – even if the fight looks sour. Just ask Dustin Poirier.

Predict the Saint Denis vs. Pimblett Winner at UFC 329 on PrizePicks

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Saint Denis vs. Pimblett Pick for UFC 329

Paddy Pimblett – 42.5 Significant Strikes

Paddy Pimblett has eclipsed 80 significant strikes in three of his last four matchups, but this lower projection alone showcases how different this task is.

Pimblett’s ability to keep his feet is increasingly seen as a real problem. I mentioned his on-paper analytical takedown D, but it’s made worse by the fact that he allowed the first three takedowns of Gaethje’s entire career in his last bout.

Saint Denis’ 35% takedown accuracy is fairly average, but he’s also had to face Ruffy (86% takedown D) and Hooker (77% takedown D) in recent appearances. Pimblett might actually be a step back in terms of resistance against wrestling.

Oh, and don’t sleep on the Frenchman’s 1.04 KD% rate, either. He’s got underrated power if “The Baddy” hasn’t shored up some of his defensive woes at striking range that Gaethje punished.

Make Your Saint Denis vs. Pimblett Pick for UFC 329 on PrizePicks

Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista Prediction for UFC 329

Fight Winner Payouts: Cory Sandhagen 1.61x | Mario Bautista 2.17x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 lbs.)

Sandhagen vs. Bautista Model Results:

If you’re a fan of mixed martial arts at the highest level, Cory Sandhagen and Mario Bautista’s bout might be the most intense, well-rounded battle on the entire card.

Neither has a true weakness. That manifests in their results, where Bautista has won 9 of his last 10,; Sandhagen’s 4-3 record in his last 7 appearances might not seem impressive, but the setbacks are to Merab Dvalishvili, Petr Yan, and Umar Nurmagomedov — the top three in the division. Nurmagomedov is Bautista’s lone blemish, as well.

“The Sandman” has long been a crafty, unique challenge at 135 pounds. Standing 5’11” with a 70” reach, most don’t have the length to deal with him at distance. He’s used those long limbs to produce unimaginable highlights at times:

At 5’9”, Bautista is a bit more conventional in terms of frame, but don’t call him ordinary. “Battle Born” has become one of the division’s most potent submission threats, securing one in four of his last eight fights. He sent Vinicius Oliveira fleeing to a new division in February:

Like McGregor and Holloway, these two have a history. Sandhagen submitted Bautista in 2019 via first-round armbar. That’s a pretty crazy result in hindsight, considering the American is 0-1 to submission results since the bout compared to Bautista’s 4-0 record via that method.

As the model’s prediction suggests, I expect an extremely competitive affair in which both have an excellent chance of winning. According to their striking success rates (SSR), Sandhagen (+1.39) and Bautista (+1.32) are nearly identical in terms of per-minute performance.

Predict the Sandhagen vs. Bautista Winner at UFC 329 on PrizePicks

Sandhagen vs. Bautista Pick for UFC 329

Cory Sandhagen – 53.5 Significant Strikes

Though I don’t feel Cory Sandhagen’s takedown defense is a true “weakness,” it is worth noting that his recent setbacks at the hands of the best wrestlers in the world have come that way.

He’s surrendered 27 takedowns in his last three appearances, posting just 2.97 significant strikes landed per minute due to the time in control of his opponents.

In a 15-minute fight, that pace wouldn’t cut the mustard here, so it’ll depend on whether or not Bautista can recreate the game plan. At a lower level of competition, Bautista has landed 1.91 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Both fighters are comfortable at distance or in the clinch, so predicting the tenor or the location of the fight is crucial to both combatants’ significant strike projections.

The model’s 62.2% probability that the fight goes all 15 minutes won’t hurt the chances of eclipsing it, though.

Make Your Sandhagen vs. Bautista Pick for UFC 329 on PrizePicks

Brandon Royval vs. Lone’er Kavanagh Prediction for UFC 329

Fight Winner Payouts: Brandon Royval 2.70x | Lone’er Kavanagh 1.40x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Flyweight (125 lbs.)

Royval vs. Kavanagh Model Results:

Is a flyweight changing of the guard on deck?

The meteoric rise of English prospect Lone’er Kavanagh — who has been training all facets of MMA since he was a child — has had to come even faster than he anticipated. Just four fights into his UFC tenure, he’s in the top 10 after a convincing main event win over Brandon Moreno in Mexico earlier this year:

He’ll have to dethrone another former winner over Moreno on Saturday to move one step closer to the title.

Brandon “Raw Dawg” Royval is a scrapper through every sense of the word, overcoming a 7-5 record to challenge for the world title. He’s been fighting in flyweight’s top 10 since his 2020 debut against Tim Elliott.

Royval is, historically, a pacer with elite cardio and volume, but he’s been rocked twice in recent fights with Josh Van and Manel Kape — forgivably, as they are two of the best strikers on the planet. Kape’s power didn’t even need five minutes.

I think this is phenomenal matchmaking by UFC. Kavanagh doesn’t have a knockdown in four official UFC fights, so this is a much-needed respite from true power for Royval, 33, and his aging chin.

At the same time, the English prospect, Kavanagh, relies so heavily on big action and movements that he’s slowed down late in fights, and that’s where the Coloradan shines.

Predict the Royval vs. Kavanagh Winner at UFC 329 on PrizePicks

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Royval vs. Kavanagh Pick for UFC 329

Lone’er Kavanagh – 52.5 Significant Strikes

Volume hasn’t been Lone’er Kavanagh’s strength to this point, but if there’s any matchup that could pull it out of him, it’s Brandon Royval.

Royval’s torrid pace (13.51 significant strikes attempted per minute) comes with poor accuracy (41%) and poor defense (43%). It’s really a “phone booth” approach where he’s looking to break foes.

Kavanagh’s elite striking D (56%) is similar to a Kape or a Van, though, where you just can’t land cleanly at will.

An important variable for Kavanagh here is whether he chooses to wrestle. Royval has historically been willing to play in his opponents’ guard, and his 45% takedown defense is poor. Kavanagh averages 2.49 takedown attempts per 15 minutes.

A surface-level glance at this matchup, which projections favor to go the full distance, would logically lead to an over, but there are multiple paths to where Kavanagh — and his quality over quantity approach — could fall short of the projected total.

Make Your Royval vs. Kavanagh Pick for UFC 329 on PrizePicks

King Green vs. Terrance McKinney Prediction for UFC 329

Fight Winner Payouts: King Green 2.08x | Terrance McKinney 1.69x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs.)

Green vs. McKinney Model Results:

The main card opener is not the time to get up and grab popcorn or a beer. Terrance “T-Wrecks” McKinney has built a cult-like following on his commitment to get paid as much per hour as possible.

McKinney’s 2:16 average fight time is the shortest in UFC history for a fighter with a minimum of five starts. He’s scored eight first-round finishes and, somehow, never received a performance bonus despite performances like his last: a hometown beatdown of Canada’s Kyle Nelson.

He’s looking to become undeniable for the extra cash by thwarting the winning streak of King Green at UFC 329.

Green, 39-years-old, is a 27-fight UFC veteran who has aged like wine, pulling massive upsets of Daniel Zellhuber and Grant Dawson within the last couple of years.

His last outing as a large favorite against former featherweight contender Jeremy Stephens didn’t go poorly, either:

If there was ever a fight where you didn’t need my help prognosticating the finish, it’s this one. McKinney’s commitment to the early flurry has found him on the wrong side of stoppages within 10 minutes in each of his UFC losses. He’s also never won outside the first round.

Green’s age and attrition certainly make him a candidate to be another victim of the Seattle native, but if the veteran can use his experience to survive, you’d expect the fight would be his to lose starting late in Round 1.

Predict the Green vs. McKinney Winner at UFC 329 on PrizePicks

Green vs. McKinney Pick for UFC 329

Terrance McKinney – 4.25 Minutes Fight Time

How about this intriguing duration projection at PrizePicks?

Obviously, it’s nearly double the favorite’s historical average for fight time, but the projection isn’t solely based on if McKinney wins. He’s entered the second round in three UFC-affiliated appearances and has yet to win any of them.

This is T-Wrecks’ first main card appearance. Do jitters impact what’s been an unchanged style in 12 starts?

I will say that Green is a phenomenal dancing partner with a real chance of surviving the flurry.

The Californian’s 62% striking defense is tremendous. Yet, we’ve seen positional mistakes inside the octagon where he gave the front foot to his opponent and paid dearly for it:

You don’t need me to tell you McKinney can win this fight inside the very first minute, but the exact outcome of it should be fascinating to watch.

Make Your Green vs. McKinney Pick for UFC 329 on PrizePicks

Swaim’s UFC Predictive Model for UFC 329: How It Works

I've created a predictive UFC model that uses historical UFC stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

The results for each fight are listed above as "model results".

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 35 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be included in the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible for a result.

Each eligible UFC Fight Night main card fight is listed with model data to help you make your UFC predictions on PrizePicks today.

Follow Austin Swaim for more UFC picks, predictions, and analysis.

All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.

Make UFC 329 Fight Card Predictions on PrizePicks

UFC 329 is headlined by Conor McGregor’s long-awaited return to the octagon in a rematch with Max Holloway, but it also features a stacked main card of thrilling fights between Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoîtit Saint Denis, Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista, and Brandon Royval vs. Lone’er Kavanagh on the main card.

Lock in your UFC predictions for today's main card, set to start at 9 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Just go to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more UFC fighter projections for UFC Fight Night, headlined by Fiziev vs. Torres, and lock in your lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.

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