Benoit Saint Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett Prediction, Pick for UFC 329

The co-main event for Conor McGregor’s return was an easy choice. If there’s any UFC star who has sort of copied Mac’s mold with brash trash talk in a unique accent, a fun style, and a huge fanbase, it’s Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett.

Paddy will look to rebound from his first UFC loss on Saturday as he takes on “The God of War," French marauder Benoit Saint Denis, in a co-main event that will certainly bring the action.

The co-main event of UFC 329: Holloway vs. McGregor 2 is expected to start around 10:45 p.m. ET on Paramount+, depending on when the other main card fights conclude.

Below, we'll highlight our Benoit Saint Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett prediction for PrizePicks, followed by a pick for UFC 329.

Make your UFC 329 picks on winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks!

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Benoit Saint Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett Prediction, Preview for UFC 329 Co-Main Event

Below are the payouts for who will win the fight via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means that result will payout $200 on a $100 entry. 

Benoit Saint Denis: 1.66x to win ($100 pays $166)

• Saint Denis by KO/TKO: 4.34x
• Saint Denis by Submission: 4.76x
• Saint Denis by Decision: 5.26x

Paddy Pimblett: 2.12x ($100 pays $212)

• Pimblett by KO/TKO: 4.76x
• Pimblett by Submission: 5.26x
• Pimblett by Decision: 5.88x

‍Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks; a 1.5x payout is more likely than a 2x payout, which is more likely than a 4x payout, and so on.

From the press conference to the walkout, Paddy Pimblett is must-see television. But what might get lost in all of that is how good a fighter the Englishman has proven to be in his 7-1 UFC tenure.

The Liverpool native’s claim that “scousers don’t get knocked out” has rung true through even the most perilous of moments, which he faced plenty of in his January interim lightweight title fight against Justin Gaethje.

It was his first fight inside the current rankings. Saturday will be his first since July 2022 against a fighter under 34 years old. Pimblett has enjoyed plenty of success, but I think the verdict is still out on what his high-level skills and fight strategy are to beat a prime contender like Benoit Saint Denis.

“BSD” has answered those. He’s the only UFC combatant to defeat Mauricio Ruffy, and he’s coming off a submission win over Dan Hooker. Really, Saint Denis’ entire career trajectory might have been different if he didn’t get clipped in a fight he was dominating against Dustin Poirier:

That led to a gruesome doctor’s stoppage against Renato Moicano, but the Frenchman has established plenty of success inside the top 15 with a pressuring, grappling-heavy approach, landing 4.19 takedowns and 1.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Both of these guys are huge for the division, so it’ll be interesting to see how they adjust to a similarly sized combatant as well.

Find UFC 329 Predictions + Picks for every main card fight here!

How Benoit Saint Denis Wins vs. Paddy Pimblett at UFC 329

Benoit Saint Denis has a real chance to get to his bread and butter in this matchup.

If Pimblett has a weakness on paper, it’s a 44% takedown defense that gets worse the deeper you dive. Gaethje landed the first three takedowns of his illustrious career against Pimblett earlier this year, so there’s a definite question about how far he can come in a short period of time.

Saint Denis’ takedown accuracy (35%) is just OK, but he’s had to go through Ruffy (86% takedown D) and Hooker (77%) in consecutive fights and still floored those to find submissions.

In general, not many can withstand Saint Denis’ pace and pressure. He’s really lost on careless mistakes. In addition to the Poirier result, Moicano took advantage of a bad scramble, ended up in top position, and fractured his orbital bone with an elbow. 

Those sloppy fundamentals could prove fatal against a large fighter like Pimblett, who is also a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt.

How Paddy Pimblett Wins vs. Benoit Saint Denis at UFC 329

Going hand-in-hand with Saint Denis’ win path, Paddy Pimblett can’t get taken down at will in this matchup. In addition to giving the Frenchman the fight he wants, Pimblett’s perpetual issues with his gas tank and conditioning would only worsen.

If I were in the corner for “The Baddy,” I’d try to keep this fight at striking range. Saint Denis’ 42% striking defense is sloppy, and he’s been dismantled in all three of his losses at distance. That’s not normal for Paddy, but he undoubtedly had moments of success against Gaethje, whose recent title triumph has to give him plenty of confidence:

Quietly, Saint Denis has given up six official submission attempts in his last six fights. He’s got a bad habit of sticking his neck in places where it doesn’t belong when wrestling, and Pimblett must properly balance the pursuit of a choke without conceding takedowns.

Make your Saint Denis vs. Pimblett prediction on PrizePicks!

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Saint Denis vs. Pimblett Prediction for UFC 329 Co-Main Event

Swaim’s Predictive UFC Model: How It Works

I’ve developed a predictive UFC model that uses pre-fight stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 35 minutes of octagon time or five completed UFC fights to be run through the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible. 

Saint Denis vs. Pimblett Model Results

If you ever design a predictive model, there’s actually a bit of relief that comes from being close to projections — even if it saps the value of making picks around them.

That’s really the case here, with a verdict that Saint Denis wins about 56.2% of the time. He’s a slight favorite in the model just as he is at PrizePicks.

Curiously, the model is split between a decision (22.6%) and submission (21.9%) for the French fighter, who has never won a 15-minute affair. That, though, has come at a much lower level of competition, and decision rates have historically risen across the UFC in any division’s top 10.

Pimblett’s forecast is also heaviest on a decision (22.3%), which does check out logically as the stronger striker if he’s able to keep his feet.

Overall, this is a very mixed verdict. Each outcome got at least 10.6% of the forecast. Two well-rounded guys with size, power, and submission skills to punish a single mistake will tend to produce that.

Saint Denis vs. Pimblett Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Paddy Pimblett – 42.5 Significant Strikes

At lightweight, no opponent of Benoit Saint Denis has topped 50 significant strikes. That’s the historical precedent that Paddy Pimblett is up against if he’s going to stuff takedowns and pile them up here.

Overall, the Scouser does a nice job of converting minutes when given the chance. He’s historically landed 5.49 significant strikes per minute — even with the takedown woes.

The model’s verdict of an early finish 55.2% of the time would undoubtedly harm counting totals, but the likeliest method for both fighters is still a decision.

It’s a tightrope to walk when one of Pimblett’s most obvious win conditions is replicating Moicano’s ability to scramble to top position and punish a mistake.

Make picks on UFC 329 stats like significant strikes, fight time, takedowns, and more on PrizePicks to win real money if you're right.

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Make Your Saint Denis vs. Pimblett Picks on PrizePicks

UFC 329’s main event goes down this Saturday from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas! Before the fight gets underway on Paramount+, lock in your UFC predictions for the fight.

Head over to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more fighter projections in Saint Denis vs. Pimblett, and lock in your Lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right. You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 35 states.

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