Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson Prediction, Pick for UFC 330

Women’s strawweight has birthed two of the most dominant champions in any division, Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Weili Zhang. Is this weekend’s first title defense for Mackenzie Dern the start of a third era of this kind?

The Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist won the belt by unanimous decision against Virna Jandiroba last fall, and her first title defense will come against a fighter who owns her own piece of the UFC record book, Gillian “The Savage” Robertson.

The co-main event of UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry is expected to start around 10 p.m. EST on Paramount+, depending on when the other main card fights conclude. Let's dive into our Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson prediction and picks for UFC 330.

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Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson Prediction, Preview for UFC 330 Co-Main Event

Below are the "Yes" payouts for who will win the fight via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means that the result will pay out $200 on a $100 entry. 

Mackenzie Dern: 1.44x to win

• Dern by KO/TKO: 10.00x
• Dern by Submission: 2.77x
• Dern by Decision: 2.43x

Gillian Robertson: 2.63x to win

• Robertson by KO/TKO: 10.00x
• Robertson by Submission: 10.00x
• Robertson by Decision: 3.57x

Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks; a 1.5x payout is more likely than a 2x payout, which is more likely than a 4x payout, and so on.

It’s amazing how the cream always seems to rise to the top in this sport.

For years, Gillian Robertson has been an outlier. She’s tied with Amanda Nunes and Jessica Andrade — two former champions — for the most finishes in UFC women’s history (10), but there was always a perceived ceiling or context. She’s been on the undercard for nearly a decade.

Well, “The Savage” has arrived. She’s 6-1 in this 115-pound division, posting indisputable wins over Amanda Lemos and Marina Rodriguez to earn this crack at the title. Her finishes largely come on the ground via dominant wrestling (2.76 takedowns per 15 minutes), followed by ground-and-pound attacks or a sneaky sub:

That preferred path is what makes a fight with the defending champion, Dern, so interesting. The credentialed IBJJF world champion is as lethal as it gets on the ground with 5 UFC submission wins since her debut in 2018. Her entire career has been spent with opponents largely treating the floor as lava.

Dern’s striking will never be her strength, but in last October's title fight, she managed a +12 striking differential against Jandiroba to overcome getting taken down 9 times:

All week, people have been asking how this fight is going to play out, and I’d have a better answer if I knew Robertson’s game plan. Does she force these two grapplers to lean on their weaker element of MMA, or does the Canadian trust her boxing improvements at South Florida’s “The Goat Shed” and try to inch ahead on the scorecards — as Jandiroba could not?

One thing is certain. Fatima Kline and Alexia Thainara, in their mid-20s, have shown that the future is now in this division. Either the champion or challenger better make an emphatic statement if they want us to believe they can hold them off in the coming months.

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How Mackenzie Dern Wins vs. Gillian Robertson at UFC 330

I’ll be very honest; I don’t think Dern is a strong champion, and it’s because she’s skated on a razor’s edge to win the title with the same strengths and faults for years.

With her submission grappling an obvious strength, the Brazilian has the worst takedown accuracy in the division (18%; min. 50 attempts) to actually get the fight to where she can win it. She’s historically relied on inconsistent positioning, slips, and mistakes to get to the ground.

At a distance, it’s been less than three years since Jessica Andrade dropped Dern 4 (!) times in a vicious (T)KO win. Andrade is 1-3 since that bout. Robertson is yet another mediocre striker on the schedule, but her -0.46 striking success rate (SSR) is, flatly, not befitting of a champion.

Dern's ability to overcome these weaknesses is her key to victory against a limited opponent. She gritted past Jandiroba on the feet to win last October. Can she deter Robertson from top position with dangerous submission tries — or even lock one up?

We need to continue to see improvement in the 33-year-old’s game to believe she’ll hold the belt for a while. 

How Gillian Robertson Wins vs. Mackenzie Dern at UFC 330

There is a path in which Robertson looks like the dominant favorite in this fight. It’ll just be about her ability to execute them.

As Jandiroba proved, Dern’s 37% takedown D is ripe for the taking, but the previous challenger was unable to accomplish anything with the position and even let Dern back to her feet at times. Of course, the first mission in those spots is to avoid an armbar or arm triangle as the BJJ ace works off her back.

Given we’ve seen no woman constantly dominate Dern on the mat, Robertson’s path to victory could come from her hands. Her striking accuracy (48%) and defense (56%) are a minimum of 5 percentage points higher than Dern’s historically. She’s also yet to be KO’d as a strawweight.

These are two strong grapplers. Victory for both could stem from their boxing. Who has made those necessary strides in the gym?

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Dern vs. Robertson Prediction for UFC 330 Co-Main Event

Swaim’s Predictive UFC Model: How It Works

I’ve developed a predictive UFC model that uses pre-fight stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 35 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be run through the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible. 

Dern vs. Robertson Model Results

Excluding any fights that closed in “pick ‘em” range, favorites are on a 34-3 run over the last three weeks in UFC. Currently, it’s not a surprise if they’re a bit overvalued in any particular fight.

The model’s challenge in this fight is that it’s not entirely sure Dern is a better grappler than Robertson. Anecdotally, that seems blasphemous, but Robertson has 7 UFC subs to Dern’s 5. The Canadian has 5 official submission attempts to Dern’s 1 since the start of 2023.

Those stats all come before noting a canyon-like gap in takedown efficiency.

Why do I think this fight is so fun? Distance striking feels like a total mystery. Dern is historically more voluminous, and Robertson is more efficient. Neither woman has a knockdown rate north of 0.25%, either.

Robertson might not have the submission equity that the model gives, but its competitive forecast compared to projections is interesting — to say the least.

Dern vs. Robertson Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Gillian Robertson - 50.5 Significant Strikes

I think Gillian Robertson has full control of her significant strikes projection, but that won’t exactly be at the front of her mind as she tries to find a way to wrestle away UFC gold.

Historically, Robertson has not found the “More” side in wins. She’s landed fewer than 45 significant strikes in 11 of her 14 victories, but Dern’s jiu-jitsu and poor distance efficiency are two noteworthy adjustments compared to previous divisional foes.

Interestingly enough, Robertson topped that mark in her only strawweight loss as Tabatha Ricci stuffed 3 of 4 takedown attempts from “The Savage," who quit trying early in the fight.

We’ll probably know just seconds into this fight what Robertson’s approach is and which side of this projection should have been taken. Following historical trends from Dern’s foes, perhaps the Canadian shows off her hands.

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Make Dern vs. Robertson Picks for UFC 330 on PrizePicks

UFC 330’s co-main event goes down this Saturday from the Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia! Before the fight gets underway on Paramount+, lock in your UFC predictions for the fight.

Head over to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more fighter projections in Dern vs. Robertson, and lock in your Lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right. You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 36 states.

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