Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry Prediction, Pick for UFC 330

Any champion feels pressure to retain their belt. Imagine being the pound-for-pound top fighter in the UFC rankings, though.

That’s a unique expectation that Islam Makhachev, the two-division champion from Russia, has to deal with each appearance. His 170-pound debut went flawlessly against Jack Della Maddalena, and that only earned him a date with brash Irish superstar Ian “The Future” Machado Garry.

The main event of UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry is expected to start around 10:45 p.m. ET on Paramount+, depending on when the other main card fights conclude.

Let's highlight our Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry prediction for PrizePicks, followed by a pick for UFC 330.

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Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry Prediction, Preview for UFC 330 Main Event

Below are the "Yes" payouts for who will win the fight via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means that the result will pay out $200 on a $100 entry. 

Islam Makhachev: 1.26x

• By KO/TKO: 8.33x
• By Submission: 2.85x
• By Decision: 2.50x

Ian Machado Garry: 3.44x

• By KO/TKO: 9.09x
• By Submission: 33.33x
• By Decision: 4.76x

‍Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks; a 1.5x payout is more likely than a 2x payout, which is more likely than a 4x payout, and so on.

The protege of Conor McGregor, Ian Machado Garry, has billed this fight as a second act of Khabib Nurmagomedov and Conor McGregor’s historic battle in 2016.

While the fanfare and antics aren’t anywhere near that level, the actual bout itself might be better, and it’s because of the actual commitment that “The Future” has made to rounding out a championship skillset.

Unlike McGregor, Garry traveled the world—most notably to learn jiu-jitsu at the feet of Charles Oliveira and his Chute Box team—to improve his grappling, both offensively and defensively. We knew the Irish kickboxer had knockout-inducing skills, but winning a fight at a rare time when he was at a striking disadvantage was the birth of a true contender.

Of course, Garry needs more than just a well-rounded skill set to topple the pound-for-pound king. Islam Makhachev is truly without a notable flaw in terms of in-octagon ability. His striking (58%) and takedown (56%) accuracies are 90th percentile or better at welterweight. He’s got elite striking (61%) and takedown (91%) defense, too.

A true hole doesn’t exist. Makhachev's loss will happen in the margins of losing close rounds on activity, where a fighter can provide grappling resistance and tire out his massive frame.

Considering Garry is coming off a fight where he denied all 7 takedown attempts from Makhachev's former champion and training partner, Belal Muhammad, who fights with a similar style, I think the UFC found the right guy for the job. It’ll just be a matter of whether the confident, brash underdog can actually put these words into action.

How Islam Makhachev Wins vs. Ian Machado Garry at UFC 330

With someone who has shown so few holes, how can you identify a path to victory? I think it’s about eliminating the new variables that come into play for this matchup.

Machado Garry’s length (74” reach) is a new one. Technically, Della Maddalena (73”) wasn’t far behind, but just a few seconds passed in each round before the Aussie was on the floor. The Irishman’s 80% takedown D inspires hope that it won’t be the case here.

The single most important thing Islam has to focus on could be “stamping” rounds. Makhachev’s true “flaw” is a low volume of significant strikes per minute (2.45). Control over damage has been the signature of Khabib’s core team members since the former champion’s own era, but as modern MMA scoring criteria shifts, that does leave Makhachev vulnerable to losing rounds where he’s slightly more damaged by his opponent despite multiple minutes of control.

The underdog proved in full-length, competitive matchups with Muhammad and Shavkat Rakhmonov that he is no easy out in fights where guys want to take him down. Makhachev has to eliminate doubt in that sort of close fight.

How Ian Machado Garry Wins vs. Islam Makhachev at UFC 330

The blueprint for a Makhachev upset may have been formed by Dustin Poirier, which is somewhat laughable to say on the surface when the veteran lost by fifth-round submission.

Poirier was 35 and out of his prime yet managed to defend 11 of Makhachev’s 16 takedown attempts. He forced Islam to strike for extended periods during the fight, landing the most significant strikes (74) of any Makhachev opponent.

Machado Garry’s length, low kick, and jab are solid fundamentals to replicate the formula. Della Maddalena just couldn’t make him work. Renato Moicano, on 24 hours' notice, couldn’t make him work. Poirier did, and it proved that—especially when moving up a division and fighting larger guys—Makhachev’s wrestling-heavy approach may have its setbacks.

Is it realistic for the underdog to knock out the pound-for-pound king? Probably not, but Justin Gaethje proved at the White House how discombobulated a dominant champion can become if met with unexpected resistance.

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Makhachev vs. Machado Garry Prediction for UFC 330 Main Event

Swaim’s Predictive UFC Model: How It Works

I’ve developed a predictive UFC model that uses pre-fight stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 35 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be run through the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible. 

Makhachev vs. Machado Garry Model Results

My analytical model has always struggled with Islam Makhachev, Umar Nurmagomedov, and most of the Dagestan-based fighters who have trained under Khabib and Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov.

Under the scoring criteria, control time is worth practically nothing. Therefore, the model, for all UFC fights in the entire sample, doesn’t value it. Of course, fighters like Islam completely dominate with it. It’s a problem I’ve opted not to break the model to resolve.

Still, I think this result can tell us quite a bit. Machado Garry isn’t completely run over in its grappling inputs as a result of performing so well in similar matchups. At a distance, he’s a significantly more voluminous fighter.

These are positives that I’m not sure are getting enough credit in projections, but they’re also probably getting too much credit relative to Makhachev’s dominant grappling in the model.

The one thing that is fairly noteworthy is a forecast of a full fight 51.3% of the time. Machado Garry has gone the full distance in both of his 25-minute affairs, and five of Makhachev’s six five-round fights that weren’t announced on short notice have started Round 4. Don’t be surprised if we get a little deep into the night as these two high-level fighters duel.

Makhachev vs. Machado Garry Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Ian Machado Garry – 38.5 Significant Strikes

Only two Makhachev opponents have ever landed more than 35 significant strikes. You’re obviously swimming up a treacherous creek to back a “More” against the dominant champion.

Realistically, though, I think the Irishman needs one solid round of distance striking to threaten the projection. I mentioned Poirier (74) sailed past this mark, and Alexander Volkanovski (70) was the other fighter. Both’s common trait was making Makhachev really work for takedowns and control time.

After defending a combined 15 of 17 takedowns from Muhammad and Rakhmonov, Machado Garry has to inspire confidence that he can at least momentarily succeed in doing so. It does not take long for his length to work his jab and low kicks to rack up significant strikes, posting a healthy 8.85 attempts per minute against elite competition.

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All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.

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UFC 330’s main event goes down this Saturday from the Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia! Before the fight gets underway on Paramount+, lock in your UFC predictions for the fight.

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