UFC Sacramento Predictions — Hernandez vs. Rodrigues & All Main Card Fights Tonight

In UFC’s first trip back to Sacramento since 2019, a clash of strategies at middleweight seems to be one of the best main events of the year for action.

California native Anthony Hernandez is looking to rebound from a March loss to Sean Strickland with yet another patented dogfight. To do so, he’ll have to survive the mammoth size and power of Brazilian slugger Gregory Rodrigues.

The UFC Sacramento main card features six fights, with Hernandez a moderate favorite over "Robocop" Rodrigues in the main event, according to PrizePicks Team Picks payouts.

In the co-main event, Vitor Petrino will put his three-fight winning streak at heavyweight on the line as he pursues the division's top 10, and his grappling will be tested in earnest by “The Polar Bear” from Moldova, Serghei Spivac.

The UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodriguez main card starts Saturday night at 8:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, and we’re breaking down every fight with UFC Sacramento predictions, predictive model analysis, and PrizePicks UFC picks for Hernandez vs. Rodrigues and every fight on the main card.

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UFC Sacramento Predictions for Hernandez vs. Rodrigues & Main Card Fights

Before we get into our UFC Sacramento predictions for Saturday, here’s a brief intro on what you'll find below.

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues’ main card is expected to start at 8:00 p.m. ET with the first main card fight. Here’s a full rundown of the proceedings:

• Main Event: Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues — Middleweight
• Co-Main Event: Serghei Spivac vs. Vitor Petrino — Heavyweight
• Reinier de Ridder vs. Roman Dolidze — Light Heavyweight
• MarQuel Mederos vs. Mason Jones — Lightweight
• Carli Judice vs. Jeisla Chaves — Women’s Flyweight
• Anthony Wint vs. Terrance Chatman — Heavyweight

We’ll list the payouts for each UFC Sacramento main card fight, via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means the result will payout $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

PrizePicks Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. UFC winner markets are available in 36 states, including Florida, California, and Texas! 

Learn more about Austin Swaim's UFC model here, with all eligible results included below.

Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues Prediction for UFC Sacramento

Fight Winner Payouts: Anthony Hernandez 1.51x | Gregory Rodrigues 2.38x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Middleweight (185 lbs.)

Hernandez vs. Rodrigues Model Results:

As both are past their 32nd birthday, the clock is ticking for Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez and Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues to move back toward the title picture at 185.

Fluffy couldn’t have gotten much closer. In presumably a setup spot for a date with Khamzat Chimaev, Sean Strickland masterfully shut down Hernandez’s wrestling offense, destroyed him with body shots, and went on to win the belt earlier this year, too.

It was a good reminder of the shortcomings in Hernandez’s game, including overall physicality, body durability, and distance striking. Against others, the Californian has drowned foes with 5.88 takedowns and 1.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

He’s undefeated in fights that started a fourth round — and this fight is set for five rounds.

While Robocop is potentially “drownable”, he’s also a gigantic problem up until the moment it happens. The Brazilian slugger has a massive 1.22% knockdown rate (KD%) and 7 UFC knockouts. He’s also a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, which he’s used minimally (0.4 submission attempts per 15) because he prefers to stand and bang.

Rodrigues avenged an early-career loss to Brunno Ferreira his last time out, but the most noteworthy result for him in this matchup was two fights ago against Jared Cannonier. In his first five-round bout, he nearly finished the grizzled veteran with two knockdowns early, but the gas tank expired late.

That dynamic seems unavoidable in this matchup, where Robocop’s size, power, and underrated submission offense are a potent threat to a somewhat fragile Fluffy early. However, as this fight progresses, Hernandez’s efforts against Roman Dolidze and Michel Pereira — oversized, cardio-plagued sluggers — seem to give him an unstoppable edge in a longer fight.

Predict the Hernandez vs. Rodrigues Winner at UFC Sacramento on PrizePicks

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Hernandez vs. Rodrigues Pick for UFC Fight Night

Anthony Hernandez – 47.5 Significant Strikes

Hernandez’s significant strikes projection is certainly geared toward a longer fight, but there’s some peril in that. Seven of the Brazilian’s 13 UFC bouts have ended inside of seven minutes, and the urgency to avoid a late fight with Fluffy will be paramount.

The California native averaged 10.17 significant strike attempts per 15 minutes in a fight with Strickland that had to play out at distance. He landed just 45% of those. Unlike his matchups with Dolidze and Pereira, Robocop’s takedown D (75%) is extremely strong — if for no other reason than being large, so that could be the case here, too.

Therefore, you get to a spot where Hernandez’s “Less” is largely tied to an early stoppage. He hasn’t scored a finish inside eight minutes since February 2021, and he hasn’t suffered one since May 2020.

Make Your Hernandez vs. Rodrigues Pick for UFC Sacramento on PrizePicks

Serghei Spivac vs. Vitor Petrino Prediction for UFC Sacramento

Fight Winner Payouts: Serghei Spivac 2.22x | Vitor Petrino 1.61x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Heavyweight (265 lbs.)

Spivac vs. Petrino Model Results:

Brazil’s Vitor Petrino is one of the hottest names in the heavyweight division as he rides a three-fight winning streak since moving up from 205 pounds. Can he crack the top 10 with a win in this weekend’s co-main event?

Petrino’s last result didn’t come free of adversity, but a decision win over Steven Asplund has aged even better as the American is otherwise undefeated. At just 28 years old, he has a tantalising mix of knockout power (1.19 KD%), speed, and grappling offense, with 0.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes, in a division where it’s rarely found.

As evidence of that, Serghei Spivac has been “the grappling guy” in the top 10 for years, and he averages fewer sub attempts per 15 (0.5) than the young Brazilian. Spivac’s 59% takedown accuracy is the second-best mark inside the heavyweight rankings behind Tom Aspinall (80%).

However, “The Polar Bear” has struggled at distance against high-level competition to post a -0.66 striking success rate (SSR) overall. He was on the wrong side of knockouts against Aspinall, Ciryl Gane, and Jailton Almeida.

In this matchup, Petrino is certainly looking to be the latest to test his chin, and the Brazilian’s takedown D (79%) is really solid. The question becomes: if Spivac can floor this fight, has the prospect improved since an embarrassing setback to Anthony Smith, when he trapped himself in a simple guillotine?

 Predict the Spivac vs. Petrino Winner at UFC Sacramento on PrizePicks

Spivac vs. Petrino Pick for UFC Fight Night

Vitor Petrino – 34.5 Significant Strikes

I was surprised to find that, despite the fight-ending tools I mentioned, Vitor Petrino has seen a third round in four of his last six fights. His average fight time in the UFC is 10.4 minutes. Will that change against a divisional stalwart?

The aforementioned Spivac setbacks came to illustrious names — including Waldo Cortes-Acosta — who were inside the top 8 of the rankings at the time. It remains to be seen if Petrino is on that level.

Heavyweight’s divisional trends will always lean toward a finish, but these two competent grapplers might cancel out each other’s submission danger, and Petrino will be ceding roughly 30 pounds of size to Spivac.

Without that one-shot-and-go power, it could be a longer bout where the Brazilian has to use his speed to navigate Spivac's length.

Make Your Spivac vs. Petrino Pick for UFC Sacramento on PrizePicks

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Reinier de Ridder vs. Roman Dolidze Prediction for UFC Sacramento

Fight Winner Payouts: Reinier de Ridder 1.21x | Roman Dolidze 4.00x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Light Heavyweight (205 lbs.)

de Ridder vs. Dolidze Model Results:

Matchmakers absolutely cooked here. Two grapplers who have oscillated between middleweight and light heavyweight will be at their best against each other without the need to cut extreme weight at 205 pounds.

Reiner de Ridder’s late-career move to UFC has been a smashing hit. His 4-2 record includes an upset of Bo Nickal and a win over former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker, and his two setbacks inside the top five — to Brendan Allen and Caio Borralho — are far from embarrassing.

As the former two-division champion with ONE Championship, made famous overseas, he’s showcased elite grappling skills, posting 2.56 takedowns per 15 minutes. His Muay Thai is what enabled a veteran lesson to Nickal, though:

On a two-fight losing skid, some might overlook Roman Dolidze as an opponent for him in this spot. But Dolidze’s own high-level grappling — having never been a submission victim inside 15 minutes — and massive power with punches, elbows, and knees are dangerous.

I’ve famously compared Dolidze to a grizzly bear in terms of fight style, trying to maul foes and overpower them with big, looping hooks. de Ridder is the more technical guy on the feet, and his submission danger, at a 66.7% career submission rate, should never be overlooked. 

It will be interesting to see which fighter can establish a strength advantage in the clinch, given that both have a sub-40% takedown defense and are usually delighted to engage foes in those scenarios.

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de Ridder vs. Dolidze Pick for UFC Fight Night

de Ridder vs. Dolidze – 14.99 Minutes Fight Time

Two 15-minute wars with Marvin Vettori's block of a head have deadened Roman Dolidze’s knockdown rate (0.69 KD%), which really doesn’t alone show his KO power.

Dolidze has, otherwise, stopped five of his nine UFC-affiliated opponents with strikes. That’s noteworthy as de Ridder enters at 35, having been knocked down or (T)KO’d in two of his last three fights.

Both fighters land fewer than 3.20 significant strikes per minute because they prefer to operate in the clinch. As both are feeling strong and returning to 205 pounds after previous pro stints at the weight, I’m not expecting that to change.

It's interesting this projection asks whether this fight is going the full length or not. de Ridder's elite submission skills and fragility open the door to that question when Dolidze, notably, was submitted just two fights ago but possesses knockout power.

Make Your de Ridder vs. Dolidze Pick for UFC Sacramento on PrizePicks

MarQuel Mederos vs. Mason Jones Prediction for UFC Sacramento

Fight Winner Payouts: MarQuel Mederos 3.22x | Mason Jones 1.31x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs.)

Mederos vs. Jones Model Results:

What does Mason “The Dragon” Jones have for an encore?

The Welsh fighter put on an exhilarating “Fight of the Night” performance in England earlier this year against Axel Sola, and we’ve come to know Jones for that type of back-and-forth scrap:

Jones pushes a high pace of 14.24 significant strikes attempted per minute, and his below-average striking defense (50%) but reliable durability usually keep things tight. Five of his six completed UFC bouts have gone the full 15.

On paper, Denver’s MarQuel Mederos is an ideal dancing partner. The kickboxer’s 82% takedown defense is extremely well-tested through 29 attempts, allowing him to do what he does best.

His elite striking accuracy (58%) is 18 percentage points higher than Jones’ and comes from extremely precise leg and knee attacks:

This is a competitive scrap because Jones’ wrestling offense — with 3.48 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, should give him a lifeline to keep Mederos from finding his rhythm. That said, the underdog’s superior defensive responsibility and diversity of weapons will compete well at distance.

The model’s verdict of a fight that goes the distance 73.5% of the time would make plenty of sense given the type of performances we’ve seen from these two thus far.

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Mederos vs. Jones Pick for UFC Fight Night

Mason Jones – 72.5 Significant Strikes

Of these two significant strike projections, Mason Jones’ might be a hair more realistic to find the high side based on their profiles. In clinch situations, Jones’ top control would still give him access to land ground-and-pound.

Plus, it’s the Welshman with a five-inch edge in reach.

Expecting a finish here might prove to be unwise. In 33 combined pro fights, neither guy has been a victim of an early stoppage. Still, if both of these two fighters’ historical durability holds, it’s probably fireworks.

Mederos is coming off a bout with Chris Padilla where both guys landed at least 117 significant strikes. Both guys also landed at least 19 leg kicks, which are easy, projectable distance strikes.

Jones just landed 110 on Sola, marking his third time over the century mark in six UFC starts.

Make Your Mederos vs. Jones Pick for UFC Sacramento on PrizePicks

Carli Judice vs. Jeisla Chaves Prediction for UFC Sacramento

Fight Winner Payouts: Carli Judice 1.14x | Jeisla Chaves 5.00x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Women’s Flyweight (125 lbs.)

Similar to Fatima Kline at UFC Oklahoma City last month, Saturday might mark the official arrival to the public eye of a true women’s flyweight contender.

As someone who dives into UFC data, “Crispy” Carli Judice is putting up historical striking numbers. Her 9.32 significant strikes landed per minute currently leads the flyweight division (min. 30 octagon minutes) and would be a UFC women’s record for a title challenger if it managed to hold.

She’ll be fighting tougher competition to keep it there, but her striking accuracy (50%) and defense (57%) aren’t compromised by volume.

I actually think the women’s record for significant strikes landed in a fight (231) could be in jeopardy with the right dancing partner. We’ll see if undefeated Brazilian prospect Jeisla Chaves is that match.

Chaves has been through two back-and-forth wars, both on the Contender Series and in her UFC debut, but she managed to win both with a +0.77 SSR.

That number, compared to Judice (+2.70) in a smaller sample, isn’t encouraging, though. The kickboxer added a new wrinkle in March against Yuniesy Dubin (0-2 UFC), landing 3 takedowns.

Being entirely honest, Chaves’ wilting gas tank against a fighter without a win, Dubin, is a poor sign for her in this fight with Judice. Plus, the American’s takedown defense (80%) has held strong through matchups with Gabriella Fernandes and Julianna Miller — and their six UFC wins between them.

You don’t want to rule out an evolving, young fighter like Chaves, but Judice’s trajectory is lofty at this point. We’ll see what she has in store for Sactown on Saturday.

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Judice vs. Chaves Pick for UFC Fight Night

Carli Judice – 84.5 Significant Strikes

When you look at the accomplished nature of the fighters after her on the main card, it’s telling that Crispy Carli has the highest projection (84.5) on the board.

Judice has landed 105-plus significant strikes in three of her five UFC-affiliated bouts. The exceptions were a first-round knockout of Dubin and 79 significant strikes in her last fight against Julianna Miller, who managed to find asylum in the clinch (3:38 in control time).

Will Chaves be able to do the same? It’s tough to say when Dubin’s 50% takedown defense is so weak.

Really, the question with this projection seems to be if the favorite can find an early finish. Chaves’ general durability and undefeated record insist that she’s game to extend fights.

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Anthony Wint vs. Terrance Chatman Prediction for UFC Sacramento

Fight Winner Payouts: Anthony Wint 1.08x | Terrance Chatman 7.14x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Heavyweight (265 lbs.)

I’ve called this a bit more of an advertisement than a fight, and projections are with me. Overwhelmingly, Anthony Wint is expected to win his UFC debut, and it’s because the promotion has much larger plans for the unique MMA athlete.

Last week, Wint — a former linebacker with the New York Jets, smashed through his opponent on Dana White’s Contender Series in exactly 30 seconds without absorbing a single significant strike. Not bad.

His tremendous speed and athleticism from a football career have translated like Josh Hokit’s, and he’s got an outstanding training camp at Kill Cliff FC in Miami. Terrance Chatman is next in the heavyweight’s sights.

Chatman will also make his UFC debut, as few others were brave enough to sign up for this assignment on two weeks’ notice. You have to give “The Answer” credit for that.

On the regional scene, Chatman’s leg kicks are his best weapon — and likely a necessary one to crush the base of a giant linebacker hurdling toward you at full speed:

You don’t need me to see the obvious athletic disparity between these two combatants.

Mammoth upsets are always possible in MMA, but Chatman lost (via split decision) to Bellator flameout Myron Dennis on the regional scene earlier this year. He’ll have his hands full with one of the best heavyweight prospects in the sport — and potentially ever.  

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Wint vs. Chatman Pick for UFC Fight Night

Wint vs. Chatman – 3.75 Minutes Fight Time

“Bow Down” Wint hasn’t needed more than 60 seconds in each of his last three fights. How much confidence can one instill in Chatman to survive an onslaught?

A projection this high speaks to the toughness of the underdog alone, but his last three pro wins have come over opponents with a combined 13-22 pro record. There’s an argument to be made that with an elite training camp and athletic gifts rarely seen, Wint could hang with the division’s top 15 already.

It’s almost hard to put into words how different this is for the Arizonan than anything he’s seen before.

Some prospects, like a Baisangur Susurkaev, enjoy the limelight. They enjoy playing it up a little. Wint clearly doesn’t, possessing a direct seek-and-destroy style from the opening bell. Four minutes is a long time in a cage fight.

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Swaim’s UFC Predictive Model for UFC Sacramento: How It Works

For each fight above are the results from my predictive UFC model that uses historical UFC stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

The results for each fight are listed above as "model results".

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 30 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be included in the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible for a result.

Each eligible UFC Fight Night main card fight is listed with model data to help you make your UFC predictions on PrizePicks today.

‍Follow Austin Swaim for more UFC picks, predictions, and analysis.

All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.

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Make UFC Fight Night Predictions on PrizePicks

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues goes down this Saturday, with a stacked card of fighters who are looking to climb up the ranks or lift championship gold.

Lock in your UFC predictions for today's main card, which starts at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

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