UFC 330 Predictions – Makhachev vs. Ian Garry and All Main Card Fights Tonight

Any time the pound-for-pound best UFC fighter on the planet is in action, eyeballs will be glued to televisions. Saturday night at the UFC 330 main event in Phildelphia will be no exception.

Islam Makhachev makes his second appearance at welterweight against brash Irish challenger Ian Machado Garry. Is the future now, or will the dominant Russian grappler keep his belt?

The UFC 330 main card features five fights, with Makhachev a heavy favorite over Machado Garry in the main event, according to PrizePicks Team Picks.

In the UFC 330 co-main event, the women’s strawweight title is on the line as Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist Mackenzie Dern defends her throne against Canadian grappler Gillian  Robertson.

The UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Ian Garry main card starts Saturday night at 9:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, and we’re breaking down every fight with UFC 330 predictions, predictive model analysis for winner and , and PrizePicks UFC picks for Makhachev vs. Machado Garry and the rest of the main card.

Make your UFC 330 predictions on PrizePicks now, including winners, method of victory, significant strikes, and more!

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UFC 330 Predictions for Makhachev vs. Machado Garry & Main Card Fights

Before we get into our UFC 330 predictions for Saturday, here’s a brief intro on what you'll find below.

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry’s main card is expected to start at 9:00 p.m. ET with the first main card fight. Here’s a full rundown of the proceedings:

• Main Event: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry — Welterweight Title
• Co-Main Event: Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson — Women’s Strawweight Title
• Jalin Turner vs. Kaue Fernandes — Lightweight
• Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dustin Stoltzfus — Middleweight
• Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics — Lightweight

We’ll list the payouts for the winner of each UFC 330 main card fight, via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means the result will payout $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

PrizePicks Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. UFC winner markets are available in 36 states, including Florida, California, and Texas! 

Learn more about Austin Swaim's UFC model here, with all eligible results included below

Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry Prediction for UFC 330

Fight Winner Payouts: Islam Makhachev 1.26x | Ian Machado Garry 3.44x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Welterweight (170 lbs.)

Makhachev vs. Machado Garry Model Results:

The welterweight division is a snake pit at the moment. Think of the recent highlights from Michael Morales and Carlos Prates. Two former champions are still in the top 10. Yet, they’re all chasing the consensus top fighter in the sport.

Islam Makhachev — Khabib Nurmagomedov’s hand-picked protege from Eagles MMA — has the longest winning streak in UFC (16) across two divisions, turning back the likes of Charles Oliveira, Dustin Poirier, and former 170-pound champion Jack Della Maddalena in smothering fashion. JDM was blanked on the scorecards vs. Islam:

Efficiency is Makhachev’s secret sauce. He’s got elite striking (61%) and takedown (91%) defense, and he lands an accurate 58% of his significant strikes and 56% of his takedown attempts. These are well above any division’s averages.

If there is any hole, it’s that Makhachev’s significant strike count (2.45 landed per minute) is low because he values positional control.

How does Ian Machado Garry penetrate a nearly invincible fighter? Well, he’s already had success doing that.

Shavkat Rakhmonov finished all six of his opponents before Machado Garry, who took him to a split decision with a +5 striking differential. The Irishman also has wins over Carlos Prates, Michael “Venom” Page, and Belal Muhammad — a similar fighter and former training partner of Islam.

In some ways, “The Future” is as prepared for this matchup as anyone. He’s spent years working on his grappling at Oliveira’s Chute Box team, and it shows in his ability to balance and scramble along the fence:

The model’s projection comes with context. It never values the Dagestani fighters highly because most fighters who win with just empty control time tend to regress. Obviously, Khabib’s team has done it with great success since the former champion’s era.

With that said, I think it’s interesting that Garry has legitimate welterweight size at 6’3” with a 74” reach, when we have seen Makhachev tested. Poirier — out of his prime — was competitive with 74 significant strikes after defending 11-of-16 takedowns. He just faded down the stretch to lose via fifth-round submission. The 28-year-old underdog might just need a little extra gas in the tank to pull a historic upset.

Predict the Makhachev vs. Ian Garry Winner at UFC 330 on PrizePicks

Makhachev vs. Machado Garry Pick for UFC 330 Tonight

Ian Machado Garry – 38.5 Significant Strikes

Length is the first order of business with a projection this low in a 25-minute fight. The model has the fight as 51.3% likely to go the full distance, which is in the neighborhood of projections.

We saw how quickly Makhachev can swallow significant strike totals against Della Maddalena, who landed just 18 in 25 minutes. I actually can’t even believe it was that many.

In addition to Poirier’s success, Alexander Volkanovski (70) is the only other fighter to top 35 significant strikes against Makhachev. I would expect that sample to grow at welterweight, where his size isn’t quite as overwhelming.

Machado Garry averages 8.85 significant strike attempts per minute and lands a good chunk of them (54%) with jabs and low kicks. It’s easier said than done, but providing enough resistance to Islam’s wrestling in order to manage one solid round of distance striking will have the “More” in a good position.

Make Your Makhachev vs. Ian Garry Pick for UFC 330 on PrizePicks

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Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson Prediction for UFC 330

Fight Winner Payouts: Mackenzie Dern 1.44x | Gillian Robertson 2.63x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Women’s Strawweight (115 lbs.)

Dern vs. Robertson Model Results:

The women’s strawweight division is kind of in an odd place at the moment with Weili Zhang’s return yet to be determined.

Mackenzie Dern won the title over Virna Jandiroba in an unconvincing fashion last fall, but my model would favor Fatima Kline and Alexia Thainara over both Dern and this weekend’s challenger, Gillian Robertson. I want to sell this fight as more than keeping the seat warm, but it's tough.

Stylistically, it’s an interesting one, though.

Dern, a highly credentialed IBJJF champion, has really rounded out her MMA skillset. She’s only posted one submission attempt over her last six fights but made a run to the title anyway.

However, her -0.46 striking success rate (SSR) hasn’t really been tested with a grappling-heavy schedule of Jandiroba, Amanda Ribas, and Loopy Godinez on the way up. In her last meeting with a striker, Dern took a massive beating at the hands of Jessica Andrade:

However, Robertson isn’t a striker, either. The Canadian grappler is tied for the most finishes in UFC women’s history (10) thanks to her nasty ground-and-pound attacks and 0.9 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Submitting Dern would be an unbelievable result, but could she be the more complete mixed martial artist in that area? Well, her takedown accuracy is 22 (!) percentage points higher.

Though it may not be the most convincing win, I think that these two’s innate comfort on the ground could produce a situation where Dern’s 18% takedown accuracy can’t floor the fight on her terms, and Robertson — fearful of submission attempts — doesn’t want to.

If this devolves into a sloppy striking affair, Robertson’s striking accuracy is 7 percentage points higher, and her striking defense is 5 percentage points higher. I’m not entirely confident that gives her the edge in this sort of fight, but it’d probably be wise not to count her out.

Predict the Dern vs. Robertson Winner at UFC 330 on PrizePicks

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Dern vs. Robertson Pick for UFC 330 Tonight

Gillian Robertson – 50.5 Significant Strikes

Similar to our other 25-minute fight from Philadelphia on Saturday, the model has the slightest of leans toward a full fight (51.6%). That would help counting stats across the board.

Robertson’s significant strike projection is fascinating because I believe she can dictate where this fight takes place and make that decision herself. “The Savage” has a historically efficient takedown accuracy (40%) into Dern’s non-existent takedown defense (37%). The former BJJ champion is happy to be on her back.

Does the Canadian want it there? I think it’s the million-dollar question. Dern has failed to complete 17 of her last 23 takedown attempts and has always struggled to get fights to the ground on her own terms.

If this becomes a weird boxing match, both ladies could cruise past their striking projection. It’ll just be a question of whether or not instinct and habit take over.

Make Your Dern vs. Robertson Pick for UFC 330 on PrizePicks

Jalin Turner vs. Kaue Fernandes Prediction for UFC 330

Fight Winner Payouts: Jalin Turner 1.58x | Kaue Fernandes 2.22x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs.)

Turner vs. Fernandes Model Results:

A midweek shuffle has put Jalin Turner’s second fight back from retirement onto the main card, and this one features two rising lightweights.

“The Tarantula” has always had jaw-dropping potential with a 6’3” frame and 77” reach in a 155-pound division. He’s also shown power (1.74% knockdown rate) and offensive submission skills (1.1 attempts per 15 minutes).

So, how does a guy so gifted lose 6 of his 14 starts thus far? Turner has found it difficult to break through against high-level grapplers, losing to Mateusz Gamrot, Renato Moicano, and Ignacio Bahamondes on the mat. Kaue Fernandes (1.18 takedowns per 15 minutes) can do a little of that, but he really brings a new problem to Turner’s game.

Fernandes is arguably the division’s leg kick guru. He’s amassed a massive 2.45% knockdown rate (KD%) with them, stopping both Mohammad Yahya and Harry Hardwick in that fashion. The Brazilian is a specialist entering this open-stance matchup:

Turner is dangerous early, but he’s had an issue with leg kicks historically. Dan Hooker landed 23 of them in his last extended fight, and Gamrot (9) and Jamie Mullarkey (6) got in on the fun. It’s not a weapon all MMA fighters deploy, but the American is heavy on his slender lead leg.

If he doesn’t protect it, it may not take but a handful of successful lands for Fernandes to find another signature finish.

Predict the Turner vs. Fernandes Winner at UFC 330 on PrizePicks

Turner vs. Fernandes Pick for UFC 330 Tonight

Turner vs. Fernandes – 6.5 Minutes Fight Time

Thankfully, Jalin Turner doesn’t get paid by the minute.

Turner’s average fight time (6:38) falls right around this projection, and it really does take conviction to assess how Kaue Fernandes fits into that average. Fernandes, himself, has two first-round finishes with his leg kicks but went the full distance in two other bouts.

With that said, Fernandes’ fights that went all 15 minutes featured a combined 5 takedowns, and these two just aren’t voluminous wrestlers. This sets up as a striking match where Fernandes will look to attack the leg, and Turner will look to unload a straight left counter to make him pay.

Two of the division’s highest power threats (analytically) could produce immediate fireworks during this main card bout.

Make Your Turner vs. Fernandes Pick for UFC 330 on PrizePicks

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Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dustin Stoltzfus Prediction for UFC 330

Fight Winner Payouts: Mansur Abdul-Malik 1.22x | Dustin Stoltzfus 4.55x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Middleweight (185 lbs.)

Abdul-Malik vs. Stoltzfus Model Results:

No prospect has taken a harder nosedive in 2026 than Mansur Abdul-Malik. The three-time victor in 2025 had a “Rookie of the Year” case after earning his contract on the Contender Series in 2024.

However, disaster struck in Seattle for the middleweight. Fellow Contender Series alum Yousri Belgaroui mopped the American for a +78 striking differential, dropping him twice in the process. It was a vicious beatdown not even four months ago.

Clearly, the UFC is trying to get the top prospect from MMA Masters back on track. Dustin Stoltzfus isn’t well-regarded by most fans due to a 3-7 record, but look at a strength of schedule and it tells a different story — including Joe Pyfer, Brunno Ferreira, Nursulton Ruziboev, Kelvin Gastelum, and three other fighters who held a ranking at some point.

Even in that case, Stoltzfus has managed a +0.07 SSR to Abdul-Malik’s -1.21. He’s also added 2.08 takedowns and 1.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes. You could have argued he should be coming off a win over Gastelum, per a +7 striking differential.

Attrition is definitely a factor in this fight. The 34-year-old underdog has been finished four times in UFC, and Abdul-Malik is a specimen.

Yet, you could also make the argument that Stoltzfus is the more skilled fighter who has, inarguably, faced tougher competition. I would not write off this fight as any sort of inevitable outcome, even if that’s what UFC might be hoping to see.

Predict the Abdul-Malik vs. Stoltzfus Winner at UFC 330 on PrizePicks

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Abdul-Malik vs. Stoltzfus Pick for UFC 330 Tonight

Abdul-Malik vs. Stoltzfus – 9.25 Minutes Fight Time

It’s sort of crazy how public perception works. Mansur Abdul-Malik has continuously gone longer in fights than expected. Dustin Stoltzfus has survived longer than expected.

Yet here, the projections expect another stoppage inside of 10 minutes, or two rounds.

Mansur’s average fight time in the octagon, including the Contender Series, is 7:34. Stoltzfus is at 9:49. That’s not a huge surprise when both fighters have individual highlights but, overall, knockdown rates (KD%) below 0.70%.

Stoltzfus has a chinny reputation, but he’s been dropped just three times in 349 career significant strikes absorbed. Especially if he can wear down the favorite’s power with early grappling, this is a fight that can easily be extended.

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Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics Prediction for UFC 330

Fight Winner Payouts: Edson Barboza 1.12x | Esteban Ribovics 5.55x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs.)

Barboza vs. Ribovics Model Results:

Could this be a “gloves down” moment for a fighter who competed at lightweight in the division’s golden era?

Edson “Junior” Barboza might be one of the best fighters ever to not challenge for a title. He’s headlined five UFC events. He’s fought five different champions of UFC, WEC, or Strikeforce. He’s also got one of the coolest knockouts in promotional history:

But, there’s no doubt the end is near.

Jalin Turner bulldozed the Brazilian in 144 seconds as a rude welcome back to the 155-pound division. Lerone Murphy posted a +141 striking differential against him over 25 minutes. The results are getting fairly grim. As “Father Time” knocks on the door, it’s crazy that a striker as good as him in his prime now has a -0.54 SSR.

Stylistically, UFC did the best they could in the form of Argentina’s Esteban Ribovics. Ribovics doesn't carry huge power (0.48 KD%), and he’s been a part of several back-and-forth striking wars with the likes of Daniel Zellhuber and Elves Brener. Barboza is certainly down for that sort of fight.

Projections have Ribovics as one of Saturday’s largest favorites on the card for two reasons. First, his speed at 10 years younger is a huge advantage. Second, the Argentinian lands 3.13 more significant strikes per minute and doesn’t have to worry about a takedown threat, which he’ll enjoy coming off a submission loss to Mateusz Gamrot.

You can never fully write off the former lightweight contender turning back the clock, but Ribovics has already defeated more competitive foes than the aging veteran.

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Barboza vs. Ribovics Pick for UFC 330 Tonight

Esteban Ribovics – 55.5 Significant Strikes

As unnerving as the “More” might be after a fight where Barboza didn’t last three minutes, this is a different galaxy of historical power. Turner’s 1.74 KD% is huge as he sits down on every punch. Ribovics likes to throw out high volume in combination.

Increasingly, Barboza is a more and more hittable target. He’s absorbed 7.27 significant strikes per minute in his last four fights but only lost one of them, to Turner, via (T)KO.

Ribovics had topped 120 significant strikes in three straight before Gamrot took him down and controlled him from the opening bell. With fewer than 0.80 takedowns landed per 15 minutes combined between these two lightweights, this should be a striker’s delight to open the main card.

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Swaim’s UFC Predictive Model for UFC 330: How It Works

For each fight above, you'll find the results from my predictive UFC model that uses historical UFC stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

The results for each fight are listed above as "model results".

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 30 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be included in the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible for a result.

Each eligible UFC Fight Night main card fight is listed with model data to help you make your UFC predictions on PrizePicks today.

‍Follow Austin Swaim for more UFC picks, predictions, and analysis.

All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.

Make Your UFC 330 Predictions on PrizePicks

UFC 330 goes down this Saturday, August 15, with a stacked card of fighters who are looking to climb up the ranks or — in the case of the main and co-main events — lift championship belts.

It's time to lock in your UFC predictions on fighters and winners for today's main card, which starts at 9 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Just go to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more UFC fighter projections for UFC 330, headlined by Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, and lock in your lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.

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