Brandon Royval vs. Lone’er Kavanagh Prediction, Pick for UFC 329

Big UFC fights come in several shapes and sizes. We’ve got title bouts, title eliminators, and whatever this one might classify as at flyweight.

If England’s Lone’er Kavanagh can get his hand raised on Saturday, he’ll clearly be next in line for whoever loses Josh Van and Alexandre Pantoja’s next matchup, which will definitely be a title eliminator.

However, Colorado’s Brandon Royval isn’t exactly inclined to let him waltz through the door. “Raw Dawg” is also seeking his second title chance — one that still seems very much in front of him with a dub.

This featured bout on UFC 329: Holloway vs. McGregor 2 is expected to start around 9:45 p.m. EST on Paramount+, depending on when the other preliminary fights conclude.

Below, we'll highlight our Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh prediction, followed by a pick for UFC 329.

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Brandon Royval vs. Lone’er Kavanagh Prediction, Payouts for UFC 329

Below are the payouts for who will win the fight via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means that result would pay out $200 on a $100 entry. 

Brandon Royval: 2.63x to win

• By KO/TKO: 10.00x
• By Submission: 7.14x
• By Decision: 6.25x

Lone’er Kavanagh: 1.42x to win

• By KO/TKO: 3.12x
• By Submission: 33.33x
• By Decision: 2.27x

Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks; a 1.5x payout is more likely than a 2x payout, which is more likely than a 4x payout, and so on.

MMA is a sport where you can lose. It’s not boxing, where a prospect’s first setback is a career-altering shift. Lone’er Kavanagh is just four fights into his UFC tenure, but he’s inside the top five because of his undeniable skill and willingness to overcome the setback.

Kavanagh entered the lion’s den fresh off his first pro loss: a road date in Mexico against former champion Brandon Moreno on short notice. A masterclass followed:

The 25-minute beatdown might not have been a finish, but it established that the Englishman is indeed on the level most believed he was before the KO loss to Charles Johnson. He’s a fast, technical kickboxer with powerful wrestling advances and, to this point, no submission liability.

Another fighter who trumped Moreno in Mexico awaits. Brandon Royval did that with a +33 significant strike differential in 2024.

Royval’s all-action style earned him the UFC honor for “Fight of the Year” in 2025 for his scrap with Josh Van:

The problem is that, with the Van result going against him, he’s on a two-fight skid after December’s loss to Manel Kape via early knockout. Royval proved in the fight with the current champion that he can compete at the top level, but his positioning to do so is in extreme question with a loss.

Kavanagh is the more technical fighter here without much debate. Royval’s mechanics border on reckless, but that gives him an unorthodox look, too.

This could be a phenomenal, high-octane flyweight scrap with plenty of scrambles given the grappling changeups both possess.

How Brandon Royval Wins vs. Lone’er Kavanagh at UFC 329

Royval’s most important win condition isn’t really in his control. After getting dropped by Van and Kape, his chin must hold through this matchup. He’s only lost a pair of his 26 pro fights by knockout, but at 33, the trend is worrying.

If Royval can stand in a firefight, you have to like his outlook. He’s got both the pace and tools, such as his jabs and open-stance kicks, to take it to the Englishman who hasn’t been forced to move backward much in his career.

Charles Johnson showed how much that small change can pay dividends:

Another sneaky element to Royval’s game is his submission offense. He averages 1.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes despite not actively wrestling to those positions. He’ll have to establish that threat to protect his takedown defense (45%), which isn’t strong on paper.

How Lone’er Kavanagh Wins vs. Brandon Royval at UFC 329

There are many paths for Lone’er Kavanagh, which could be why projections have him as a moderate favorite.

It’s really about mistake avoidance for the Englishman in just his fifth octagon appearance. His striking accuracy (48%) and defense (56%) tower over Royval’s despite lower volume thus far. Royval’s takedown defense may also be ripe for the taking.

Like in Royval’s keys to victory, though, positioning is crucial. Kavanagh tends to avoid wanting to back up, thus losing energy and allowing the underdog to dictate the range and placement of the fight. He’s struggled with endurance compared to Royval, who may be the division’s gold standard.

Of note, Kavanagh’s entire pro schedule has been devoid of a submission specialist. Royval isn’t a traditional grappler, although this isn’t the matchup to get sloppy with your neck position in scrambles. 

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Royval vs. Kavanagh Prediction for UFC 329 Featured Bout

Let's peel back another layer and break down Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh even more.

Swaim’s Predictive UFC Model: How It Works

I’ve developed a predictive UFC model that uses pre-fight stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 35 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be run through the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible. 

Royval vs. Kavanagh: UFC Predictive Model Results

Kavanagh’s striking accuracy is 7 percentage points higher than Royval’s, and his striking defense is 13 percentage points higher. How is the model awarding the underdog a striking advantage?

Well, at a superior level of competition, Royval’s +1.29 striking success rate (SSR) is better than Kavanagh’s (+0.64). That’s a volume balance, and volume can ultimately be what wins decisions.

The model doesn’t have implicit bias toward the recent Kape knockout, either, suggesting that “Raw Dawg” is actually quite durable while, simultaneously, Kavanagh’s knockdown rate (0.36%) is very low. He actually hasn’t dropped an opponent since his audition on Dana White’s Contender Series.

Therefore, the algorithm points to a coin flip. Kavanagh’s youth, efficiency, and lack of attrition are the slightest advantages, but it’s Royval who has scored better per minute and added a submission threat.

Royval vs. Kavanagh Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Lone’er Kavanagh – 52.5 Significant Strikes

Kavanagh’s significant strike projection has so many variables worth discussing.

Firstly, an early knockout would be perilous to the high side. That's a bit of a concern with Royval’s recent decline and poor head defense (43% striking defense) throughout his career.

Secondarily, the wrestling element could win the Englishman several minutes of this fight without scoring many significant strikes. Alexandre Pantoja and Tatsuro Taira both spent at least 48% of the fight in control of Royval.

Still, if those two paths don’t come through, it’s possible Kavanagh could double, triple, or quadruple his projection. Royval attempts 13.51 significant strikes per minute. It’s the torrid pace that let him and Van both top 200 (!) significant strikes in a three-round fight just last year.

Flyweight’s 47% early finish rate in 2025 was higher than one might expect for the promotion’s smallest male weight class, so an unconvincing 56.9% probability this fight goes the distance, per the model, also leaves ambiguity around this total.

You’d have to decide what you believe Kavanagh’s approach will be.

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Make Royval vs. Kavanagh Picks for UFC 329 on PrizePicks

UFC 329’s main event goes down this Saturday from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas! Before things get underway on Paramount+, lock in your UFC predictions for the Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh fight and others.

Head over to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on 2+ fighter projections in Royval vs. Kavanagh, and lock in your Lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right. You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 35 states.

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