Canadian UFC stars will get the opportunity to show out at UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott from Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, on Saturday, April 18.
We will give you an in-depth look at every UFC Winnipeg fight, including our Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott prediction in the main event, main card fight predictions, PrizePicks picks, and model analysis for Saturday night.
Make your UFC Winnipeg predictions on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right, including on UFC fight winners, method of victory, significant strikes, and more!
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UFC Winnipeg: Burns vs. Malott Predictions for Main Card Fights
Here are the top UFC Winnipeg predictions to target for UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott on PrizePicks in every main card fight.
Below are the payouts for who will win each UFC Fight Night main card fight via PrizePicks Team Picks; for example, a 2x means that result will payout $200 on a $100 entry.
Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks; a 1.5x payout is more likely than a 2x payout, which is more likely than a 4x payout, and so on.
Swaim’s Predictive UFC Model: How It Works
For every UFC Winnipeg main card fight below, you'll see predictive stats from my UFC model.
I’ve developed a predictive UFC model that uses pre-fight stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.
To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 35 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be run through the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible.
All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers, and are not recommendations to trade.
Follow Austin Swaim for more UFC picks, predictions, and analysis.
Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott Prediction for UFC Winnipeg
Fight Winner Payouts: Gilbert Burns 3.12x | Mike Malott 1.33x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
Weight Class: Welterweight (170 lbs.)
Burns vs. Malott Model Results:
Former 170-pound title challenger Gilbert “Durinho” Burns is on a four-fight losing streak, but they’ve all come to former or future title challengers themselves. At 39 years old, it’s easy to correlate the decline with age, but the level of competition leaves doubt.
This is his last stand against Canada’s Mike Malott, an unranked fighter. Malott is 5-1 in UFC and was less than half a round from a six-fight streak, but Neil Magny – another veteran written off as “washed” at times – was able to mount a ferocious third-round comeback as Malott fatigued late.
“Proper” Mike’s UFC wins have come over foes a combined 37-35 in UFC. It’s been a slew of journeymen. Burns is a massive step up in competition compared to even Kevin Holland, who he wilted with groin strikes for an underwhelming decision win in Vancouver:
The model’s verdict is interesting when Burns hasn’t been tapped as a pro in 31 pro fights. It’s reading into Malott’s historical tendency to try submission attempts (0.8 per 15 minutes). That strength-on-strength matchup is a key turning point to watch for in the main event.
Burns vs. Malott Pick for PrizePicks
Burns vs. Malott – 12.25 Minutes Fight Time
The model projects 13.6 median minutes in this matchup, indicating a bit of value on length compared to this projection.
That is more normal for Malott against higher-level competition, as we saw against Holland and Trevin Giles. His 1.24% knockdown rate (KD%) is likely inflated at this stage, and Gilbert Burns’ durability is likely underrated because the massive, powerful Michael Morales finished him in Round 1.
Overall, Durinho’s been finished just 4 times in 31 pro fights. He is a bit older, but his historical durability could return as he steps down in difficulty to the unranked Canadian.
Make Your Burns vs. Malott Pick on PrizePicks
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Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain Prediction for UFC Winnipeg
Fight Winner Payouts: Kyler Phillips 2.12x | Charles Jourdain 1.63x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 lbs.)
Phillips vs. Jourdain Model Results:
Charles Jourdain is perhaps Canada’s most talented men’s fighter, and a 2-0 start at bantamweight has him coming for Kyler Phillips’ ranking.
Jourdain’s warts at 145 pounds were well-known. He was controlled by several on the ground due to a poor 47% striking defense, but one of the sport’s best guillotine chokes does disincentivize that approach a little.
At distance, the Canadian’s +1.23 striking success rate (SSR) is more than quality, too.
However, Phillips is one of the most talented fighters in the sport who battles endurance issues. He’s well-rounded with a +1.21 SSR and landing 2.31 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Phillips has fought 10 UFC-affiliated first rounds and won all of them; the issue is the late stages of the fight, when exhaustion takes over.
Jourdain’s guillotine success typically doesn’t fly in the rankings. It’s a basic choke that Nathaniel Wood, Shane Burgos, and Sean Woodson had no problems avoiding. “The Matrix” has also never been submitted or KO’d in UFC.
Without that magic wand to wave, Jourdain’s sneaky attrition – including a brutal KO loss to Jean Silva – could also be a factor against Phillips, whose fought tougher competition in the rankings for years.
Phillips vs. Jourdain Pick for PrizePicks
Kyler Phillips – 50.5 Significant Strikes
We haven’t seen the best of Kyler Phillips in the stats of late, but this could be the matchup to get closer to his early-career significant strike totals at UFC Winnipeg.
Phillips’ last two opponents had a striking defense of at least 57%, and they both absorb less than 3.60 significant strikes per minute. Jourdain’s efficiency (56%) is similar, but he historically absorbs 4.25 significant strikes per minute due to his own pace.
Plus, the Canadian doesn’t take down opponents at just 0.33 per 15 minutes. If anyone chooses to grapple here, it would be Phillips, but he can still score strikes using his ground-and-pound.
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Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert Prediction for UFC Winnipeg
Fight Winner Payouts: Mandel Nallo 1.53x | Jai Herbert 2.32x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs.)
Model Results: N/A – Nallo is ineligible for model.
UFC is hoping to fast-track 36-year-old debutant Mandel Nallo, who impressed on Dana White’s Contender Series with a knockout inside four minutes.
That was a great surprise when “Mango” was known regionally for working to the back and finding submissions. Of course, Nallo was also a 4-3 veteran of the now-extinct Bellator promotion, too.
Jai Herbert’s inconsistency is likely why the Canadian is projected to win here. “The Black Country Banger” is 3-5-1 in UFC, and his three triumphs have come over foes a combined 7-13-1 in UFC.
For a striker, Herbert’s -0.92 SSR is extremely poor, and he was finished in both fights where he faced a submission attempt.
The placement of this fight seems intentional, as Nallo figures to have fight-ending upside at striking range for a KO/TKO – given Herbert’s two KO losses in UFC, or if he’s able to work to the Englishman’s back as Renato Moicano did.
Herbert will need to stuff takedowns and jab his way to a decision for 15 minutes to get the nod.
Nallo vs. Herbert Pick for PrizePicks
Jai Herbert – 36.5 Significant Strikes
Nallo proved to be pretty lethal in his audition, but that’s not the only factor working against Jai Herbert’s significant strike total here.
For a boxer, Herbert lands just 3.07 significant strikes per minute. He’s probably a bit overvalued by raw totals because he’s been to decision in five straight fights, which isn’t particularly sustainable when average striking defense (53%) meets below-average grappling skills.
It's possible that even a 15-minute fight could leave Herbert short of this significant strike projection if Nallo can penetrate his 66% takedown defense.
Make Your Nallo vs. Herbert Pick on PrizePicks
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Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Karine Silva Prediction for UFC Winnipeg
Fight Winner Payouts: Jasmine Jasudavicius 1.26x | Karine Silva 3.57x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
Weight Class: Women’s Flyweight (125 lbs.)
Jasudavicius vs. Silva Model Results:
Before her last bout, Jasmine Jasudavicius was seen as Canada’s best current shot at UFC gold. Manon Fiorot squashed that hope in 74 seconds.
Jas’ limitations at distance reared their ugly head once again. Getting resigned to striking range at a -0.01 SSR has been the culprit in all three of her UFC losses. Luckily for her, Karine Silva’s 21% takedown D should provide some openings.
“Killer” Karine has lost two of three due to those particular issues, allowing nine total mat returns in this stretch.
Stepping back in competition to Jasudavicius could help Silva return to her submission offense, which produced four taps in her first four UFC-affiliated fights.
Although there are paths to Silva spending the majority of the fight on her back, Jasudavicius’ warts are well-known, and she’s not totally safe in ground exchanges, especially when Silva averages 1.5 sub attempts per 15 minutes.
Jasudavicius vs. Silva Pick for PrizePicks
Karine Silva – 27.5 Significant Strikes
Against most foes, Karine Silva is hoping to get in a position to grapple. Against Jasudavicius, she’s more likely to lean into her improving striking as she trains with the famed Fighting Nerds team in Brazil.
In extended fights against grapplers, Jasudavicius ceded at least 37 significant strikes to Mayra Bueno Silva, Ariane da Silva, Fatima Kline, and Tracy Cortez. Silva’s significant strikes per minute rate (2.48) is low by historical choice, but this matchup could change that strategy.
Silva has only eclipsed this 27.5 sig strikes mark in one of eight UFC fights.
Make Your Jasudavicius vs. Silva Pick on PrizePicks
Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young Prediction for UFC Winnipeg
Fight Winner Payouts: Thiago Moises 2.08x | Gauge Young 1.63x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs.)
Moises vs. Young Model Results:
Is a changing of the guard upon us at 155 pounds?
Thiago Moises used to have a ranking by his name, but the Brazilian has dropped three of his last five fights. He’s a dangerous submission threat (1.1 attempts per 15 minutes) that struggles at distance (-1.60 SSR).
Moises’ volume is his biggest issue at distance, landing just 2.48 significant strikes per minute.
Gauge Young is the opposite. He’s landed 5.71 sig strikes per minute in three full-length firefights, which includes a Dana White’s Contender Series bid against surging contender Quillan Salkilld.
“Gee Money” is just inexperienced, putting together a +46 striking differential in a clean win over Mahashate (2-4 UFC) for his only UFC triumph.
As winning fighter payouts indicate, this sets up to be a close fight on paper. The most pronounced danger anywhere would likely be Moises in an advantageous position on the ground, but Young is more likely to succeed the longer this fight goes at striking distance.
Moises vs. Young Pick for PrizePicks
Gauge Young – 52.5 Significant Strikes
Trey Ogden is a multi-time winner and UFC grappling specialist, and Thiago Moises was able to control him for 7:30 of their fight.
Moises’ ground game is a level above several lightweights, and though Gauge Young’s takedown defense (71%) has been solid thus far, it’s just not proven.
Salkilld landed 9 takedowns in his dominant effort against Young, and his two opponents have averaged just a combined 0.48 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Moises (1.31) is much more likely to lean on his grappling, sapping minutes to score strikes from the American.
Make Your Moises vs. Young Pick on PrizePicks
Dennis Buzukja vs. Marcio Barbosa Prediction for UFC Winnipeg
Fight Winner Payouts: Dennis Buzukja 4.34x | Marcio Barbosa 1.19x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
Weight Class: Featherweight (145 lbs.)
Buzukja vs. Barbosa Model Results: N/A – Barbosa is in eligible (UFC debut)
One of the most anticipated UFC debuts, coming up from Season 9 of Dana White’s Contender Series, is Marcio Barbosa.
Brazil’s “Ticoto” terminated his foe on the audition series, scoring two knockdowns in less than five minutes. He landed 8.27 significant strikes per minute at a hectic pace, leaving no doubt that 14 of his 17 pro wins have come via knockout.
On the other side, Dennis Buzukja of the Serra-Longo Fight Team will try to use his training and experience to avoid a firefight.
Buzukja’s lone win in four starts came in a back-and-forth brawl with Connor Matthews (0-3 UFC). He’s been dropped in two of his last three fights and has yet to show much of a wrestling prowess (0.62 takedowns landed per 15 minutes).
Fighters coming from the Contender Series aren’t always known quantities, but Buzukja could have to weather an early storm from Barbosa to drag this fight into unexpected waters.
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Buzukja vs. Barbosa Pick for PrizePicks
Buzukja vs. Barbosa – 5.25 Minutes Fight Time
Eight straight Marcio Barbosa bouts have ended inside this duration, and Buzukja’s weak striking defense and historically poor first-round durability could see that streak continue in Winnipeg.
At this point, Barbosa’s 5.71% knockdown rate would lead be second to Lerryan Douglas among active featherweights if it holds through his debut. That’s unlikely but showcases an immense level of early danger.
This bout does seem eerily similar to Douglas’ debut two weeks ago in Seattle, where Douglas was facing Julian Erosa’s poor head defense and a questionable chin. He dropped his opponent twice in under 4 minutes before finding the finish.
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Make UFC Winnipeg Predictions on PrizePicks
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott goes down this Saturday night from Winnipeg. Before the UFC Fight Night main card gets underway on Paramount+, lock in your UFC predictions on PrizePicks.
On the PrizePicks app, pick More or Less on two or more fighter projections in UFC Fight Night, headlined by Burns vs. Malott, and lock in your Lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.
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