Manchester City hosts Arsenal at Etihad Stadium on Sunday, April 19, in a match that could very well decide who wins the 2025-26 Premier League crown.
The match kicks off at 11:30 a.m. ET on NBC. According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Manchester City are favored to win at home, returning a 1.78x payout if they take all three points.
Victory for the Citizens would pull them within three points of Arsenal with a match in hand. If the Gunners were to take the win, it would give them a 98% chance of claiming their first Premier League title in 22 years.
Below, we’ll break down our Manchester City vs. Arsenal prediction and picks for Sunday’s Premier League match, including the spread, total goals, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your picks for Manchester City vs. Arsenal on PrizePicks now.
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Manchester City vs. Arsenal Prediction, Picks for Premier League – Sunday, April 19
Manchester City have been nearly unstoppable at home this Premier League campaign. They’re on a 14-match unbeaten run at the Etihad, with only an opening-day defeat to Tottenham blemishing the record. They’ve also scored multiple goals in all but two of those outings, while keeping seven clean sheets.
Arsenal hasn't lost an away fixture in the league since early December, claiming a result in eight straight. Their shocking 2-1 loss at Southampton in the FA Cup on April 4 is their only away defeat in all competitions since the calendar flipped over.
Continuing that run will require navigating some very impactful injuries. Mikel Arteta confirmed this week that RW Bukayo Saka will not make the trip, robbing them of their best attacking creator. In addition, Arsenal have multiple key players who will be match-time decisions.
RB Jurrien Timber, LB Riccardo Calafiori, AM Martin Odegaard, and RW Noni Madueke are all doubts heading into Sunday’s fixture. Should Timber and Califiori miss out, it would rob Arsenal of their two best fullbacks against a Manchester City attack that ran circles around them in the Carabao Cup final just two weeks ago.
That match resulted in a 2-0 victory for the Citizens, with LW Jeremy Doku and AM Rayan Cherki putting the Gunners repeatedly on their heels. Man City held 62% possession in the match, as they forced Arsenal into difficult passes out of the back with their 4-2-4 setup in defense.
Man City have a few injury concerns of their own, mainly in central defense. CB Josko Gvardiol is out, while CB Ruben Dias, CB John Stones, and LB Nico O’Reilly are all questionable. O’Reilly is expected to start, though, especially after scoring both goals against Arsenal in the Carabao Cup final.
Arsenal knows how valuable a single point will be here. We’re likely to see them sit in a tight block and limit City’s opportunities, as they tried to do at Wembley, while hitting through ST Viktor Gyokeres on the counterattack.
The question will be whether Arsenal’s fullbacks can handle Doku, whether they can find a way around Man City’s defensive setup, and whether they can create in the final third without Saka. GL David Raya is expected to be back between the posts for the Gunners, and he’s unlikely to make the mistakes of Kepa, who gifted City both goals in the cup final.
Arsenal are unbeaten in five Premier League meetings with Man City and have managed draws in their last two visits to the Etihad. Doing so again could very well be the point that sees them lifting the trophy that has eluded them for so long.
Don’t forget you can still make your picks on who will win the Premier League this season with PrizePicks Team Picks. Arsenal is currently returning a 1.58x payout to win the Premier League, while Manchester City is returning 2.27x to lift the trophy.
Manchester City vs. Arsenal Spread, Total Goals, Payouts – Sunday, April 19
Manchester City enters Sunday’s match as home favorites, returning a 1.78x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Manchester City vs. Arsenal match on PrizePicks.
Winner Payout: Manchester City – 1.78x | Tie – 3.33x | Arsenal – 3.7x
Spread: Manchester City -1.5 (3.33x Payout)
Total Goals: 2.5 (Over – 1.96x)
Both Teams to Score: Yes 1.78x | No 1.92x
Play the Manchester City vs. Arsenal spread or total goals on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money—available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change. Does not include extra time or penalties.
Manchester City vs. Arsenal Prediction on Total Goals – 4/19/26
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Manchester City vs. Arsenal prediction on total goals for Sunday, April 19.
Lock in your Manchester City vs. Arsenal prediction on PrizePicks before the line moves.
- Arsenal have conceded 0.72 expected goals per 90 minutes, the fewest in the Premier League.
- Manchester City sits second in that metric, conceding just 1.13 xG per 90 minutes.
- Opponents have scored 6.24 fewer goals than expected against Manchester City and GK Gigi Donnarumma, the fourth-biggest discrepancy in the Premier League.
- Arsenal have conceded just 75 shots on target in 32 league fixtures, leading the league.
- Second in that stat are Manchester City, conceding only 106 accurate shots.
- Arsenal has yet to concede a penalty this season.
- There have been fewer than 3 goals scored in five of the last seven meetings between these clubs.
- Six of Arsenal’s last eight matches have featured no more than two goals.
Manchester City vs. Arsenal Projected Lineups for Sunday, April 19
Here are the projected Manchester City vs. Arsenal lineups for today's Premier League match. Lineups are not official.
Manchester City Lineup vs. Arsenal: Projected 4-2-3-1
- Goalkeeper: Gigi Donnarumma
- Defense: Matheus Nunes, Abdukodir Khusanov, Marc Guehi, Nico O’Reilly
- Midfield: Bernardo Silva, Rodri, Rayan Cherki
- Forwards: Antoine Semenyo, Erling Haaland, Jeremy Doku
Arsenal Lineup vs. Manchester City: Projected 4-2-3-1
- Goalkeeper: David Raya
- Defense: Cristhian Mosquera, William Saliva, Gabriel, Piero Hincapie
- Midfield: Martin Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Eberechie Eze
- Forwards: Noni Madueke, Viktor Gyokeres, Leandro Trossard
Manchester City vs. Arsenal Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks: 4/19/26
Here are two Manchester City vs. Arsenal picks to target on players for Sunday, April 19. Today’s Premier League picks for PrizePicks are headlined by Rodri and Declan Rice.
Manchester City CM Rodri vs. Arsenal Projection: 84.5 Passes Attempted
- Rodri has attempted 97 or more passes in eight of his last 10 Premier League starts, with at least 102 pass attempts in four straight outings.
- Rodri attempted 93 passes in the Carabao Cup final vs. Arsenal on March 22, in a match where Manchester City held 62% possession.
- The Spanish midfielder averages 98.16 passes per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season.
- Manchester City has held 66.5% possession in the last four meetings with Arsenal outside Emirates Stadium.
Add Rodri to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Arsenal CM Declan Rice vs. Manchester City Projection: 47.5 Passes Attempted
- Declan Rice has logged the eighth-most open-play passes in the Premier League this season, according to Opta.
- The English midfielder averages 62.14 passes per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season.
- Rice attempted 48 passes in the Carabao Cup final defeat to Man City on March 22.
- In his last 10 Premier League matches, Rice has attempted 50+ passes on nine occasions while averaging 59.7 passes per match.
Add Declan Rice to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make Your Manchester City vs. Arsenal Picks on PrizePicks
The Premier League title hangs in the balance on Sunday. Manchester City are on form and breathing down Arsenal’s necks, while the Gunners and Arteta have all the pressure on them as the threat of bottling yet another title is weighing heavily on their shoulders.
Don’t wait until lock — make your Manchester City vs. Arsenal picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on match winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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