The Milwaukee Brewers (13-10) are set to put a bow on a three-game series against the Detroit Tigers (13-12) on Thursday, April 23 at 1:10 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Through the first two games of the series, each team has won once, so the victor on Thursday secures the series.
Ahead of the first pitch, the Tigers are massive home favorites, carrying a 66% implied probability to win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Below, we'll break down our Brewers vs. Tigers prediction and picks for Thursday’s MLB showdown, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your picks for Brewers vs. Tigers on PrizePicks now.
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Brewers vs. Tigers Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, April 23
While the Brewers will have inexperienced SP Brandon Sproat (4.91 xFIP across 2 starts, 2 relief appearances, and 17.0 IP in 2026) on the mound, the Tigers have ace SP Tarik Skubal (2.75 xFIP across 5 starts and 30.1 IP) getting the nod.
Sproat has had a shaky start to the 2026 MLB season, ranking in the 20th percentile in xERA (5.50) and 14th percentile in walk rate (14.9%), per Baseball Savant. That being said, he did have his best outing in his last start, logging 6 Ks and allowing 4 hits and 1 ER against the Toronto Blue Jays on April 16.
Led by 2B Brice Turang, Milwaukee’s lineup is registering the 10th-best wRC+ (103), 12th-best wOBA (.323), and 10th-lowest strikeout rate (21.3%), via FanGraphs.
Skubal has looked his dominant self over his last 2 starts, totaling 17 Ks while allowing just 6 hits and 2 ER. The left-handed hurler is currently in the 70th percentile in xERA (3.37) and 79th percentile in strikeout rate (28.0%).
The Tigers’ bats have performed similarly to the Brewers', notching the 11th-best wRC+ (103), 11th-best wOBA (.323), and 12th-lowest strikeout rate (21.5%).
Brewers vs. Tigers Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, April 23
The Tigers enter Thursday’s game as home favorites, returning a 1.42x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Brewers vs. Tigers game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers -1.5 (1.92x payout)
- Over/Under: 6.5 (1.72x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Brewers 2.7x | Tigers 1.42x
Play the Brewers vs. Tigers spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Brewers vs. Tigers Prediction to Win – 4/23/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Brewers vs. Tigers prediction on the winner for Thursday, April 23.
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- Along with Sproat’s other metrics mentioned above, he’s in the 28th percentile in barrel rate (10.6%), 22nd percentile in hard-hit rate (46.8%), and 37th percentile in groundball rate (40.4%).
- Against right-handed pitching, the Tigers have the 10th-best wRC+ (107), 12th-best wOBA (.330), and 12th-lowest strikeout rate (22.1%).
- Just a season ago, Detroit also had the sixth-best wRC+ (113), seventh-best wOBA (.332), and fifth-best ISO (.184) at home. This year, they own the best wRC+ (132), best wOBA (.367), and fifth-best ISO (.192) in that split.
- As for the Brewers, they have the 12th-worst wRC+ (89), 10th-worst wOBA (.300), fourth-worst ISO (.095), and 12th-highest strikeout rate (23.1%) when facing lefties.
- In the 31 starts Skubal made in 2025, he earned a 13-6 record, and Detroit went 21-10 overall in those contests.
- While neither of these bullpens has been great, the Tigers’ relievers have been slightly better, boasting the 15th-best xERA (4.10) and 10th-worst BABIP (.304).
- The Brewers’ bullpen has the 12th-worst xERA (4.31) and worst BABIP (.339).
Brewers vs. Tigers Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks: 4/23/26
Here are the top Brewers vs. Tigers picks to target on PrizePicks for Thursday, April 23. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include SS Kevin McGonigle and 3B Luis Rengifo.
Tigers SS Kevin McGonigle vs. Brewers Projection: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- Aside from batting leadoff against righties, Kevin McGonigle has been in fantastic form, posting at least 1 hit in nine of his last 10 starts.
- McGonigle is recording a stellar 159 wRC+, .407 wOBA, .178 ISO, and 12.5% strikeout rate across his first 104 PAs.
- It’s still early, but Sproat is producing a woeful 5.77 xFIP, 2.25 WHIP, and 2.25 HR/9 to left-handed hitters.
- Milwaukee’s relievers also have the 13th-lowest strikeout rate (21.8%) and fifth-worst WHIP (1.51).
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Brewers 3B Luis Rengifo vs. Tigers Projection: 4.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- While Rengifo does have a hit in five straight appearances, generating offense against Skubal is a daunting task.
- Through his first 72 PAs in 2026, Rengifo is accruing just a 51 wRC+, .246 wOBA, and .098 ISO.
- As a switch-hitter, Rengifo logged a 68 wRC+ and .268 wOBA against southpaws last season. Against right-handed pitchers, he had a 74 wRC+ and .276 wOBA.
- Skubal tallied an elite 2.59 xFIP, 34.1% strikeout rate, and 0.62 HR/9 at home in 2025, compared to a 2.74 xFIP, 30.2% strikeout rate, and 1.05 HR/9 on the road.
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Make Brewers vs. Tigers Picks on PrizePicks
There’s a massive pitching advantage in favor of the Tigers on Thursday, as Skubal will be making his sixth start of the new campaign. Can the Brewers secure an upset victory on the road?
Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Brewers vs. Tigers picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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