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MLB is locked and loaded today, with a 15-game slate and all 30 teams in action on Wednesday, April 22. Baseball’s best hitters will be looking to go yard, but who stands out as the most popular home run predictions today?
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB DFS picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular HR picks among users on today's slate.
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB HR predictions for Wednesday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular HR pick today.
Make your MLB HR predictions for Wednesday, April 22, on PrizePicks now.
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Top MLB HR Predictions Today – Wednesday, April 22
Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching? What direction is the wind flying? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down MLB home run predictions.
Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Wednesday's most popular HR picks are headlined by Yankees OF Aaron Judge, Twins OF Byron Buxton, Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber, and Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani.
Below, we'll break down everything you need to know to help you decide if you want to pick or fade these HR hitters in your PrizePicks Lineups.
Yankees OF Aaron Judge vs. Red Sox
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox – 6:45 p.m. ET
- Aaron Judge’s 9 home runs this season are tied for the second-most home runs in MLB.
- Most of those have come recently, with the three-time MVP smashing 6 long balls over his last nine games.
- According to Baseball Savant, he continues to carry elite metrics with a 28.3% barrel rate (100th percentile), 52.8% hard-hit rate (88th percentile), and a .660 xSLG (98th percentile).
- The Red Sox throw SP Ranger Suarez on the mound today; he sports a 3.71 xFIP over four starts and 22.1 innings pitched.
- The left-handed hurler has allowed a 9.2% barrel rate (39th percentile) and a 38.5% hard-hit percentage (52nd percentile).
- However, Suarez has only allowed a 0.81 HR/9, via FanGraphs.
- Judge is batting .259 with 5 home runs against southpaws, compared to .224 and 4 dingers against righties.
- Suarez has surrendered a 27.7% fly ball rate compared to the league average of 38.5%.
- Weather is not ideal for home run hitting; 45 degrees, with a light breeze from right to left (5-6 mph), although Fenway ranks top 10 in Baseball Savant's park factor metric for home runs.
Add Aaron Judge to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Twins OF Byron Buxton vs. Mets
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets – 7:10 p.m. ET
- Byron Buxton has only 4 HRs this season, but all 4 have come within his last seven games.
- He carries a .408 xSLG (56th percentile), a 13.6% barrel rate (82nd percentile), and a 45.8% hard-hit rate (69th percentile), compared to finishing in the 92nd percentile or better in all three categories last season.
- The Twins’ centerfielder is getting tons of lift, touting a 57.4% fly ball rate.
- Mets SP Clay Holmes will get his fifth start on Wednesday, and he sports a 4.07 xFIP over 23.0 innings pitched.
- Holmes has held opponents to 0.78 HR/9, but he’s ceded a 43.3% hard-hit rate (34th percentile).
- His 11.8% home run-to-fly ball rate allowed is slightly higher than the league average (10.6%).
- If Buxton can return to his 21.3% HR/FB from last season, he could be a matchup nightmare tonight.
- Similar to Judge above, the weather is not conducive to home run hitting in Queens tonight; 53 degrees with a 5-6 mph breeze coming in from center field.
- Citi Field is the 19th-ranked ballpark in Park Factor over the last three seasons.
Add Byron Buxton to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber vs. Cubs
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs – 7:40 p.m. ET
- One of baseball’s leaders in home runs makes the list, as Kyle Schwarber’s 8 home runs are tied for the third-most in MLB.
- That’s translated .540 xSLG (90th percentile), 23.9% barrel rate (98th percentile), 54.3% hard-hit rate (91st percentile), and 76.2 bat speed (95th percentile), per Baseball Savant.
- That, paired with his 55.1% fly ball rate, has created a home run breeding ground for Schwarber, driving his absurd 29.6% HR/FB.
- Today’s opponent, Cubs SP Matthew Boyd, has a troubling 6.75 ERA over two starts and 9.1 innings pitched.
- Those concerns are eased by Boyd’s 1.79 xFIP and 1.71 SIERA, suggesting big-time positive regression could be ahead.
- Chicago’s left-handed hurler is allowing plenty of lift with a 52.9% fly ball rate, and he’s surrendered a 17.6% barrel rate (third percentile) and 58.8% hard-hit rate (second percentile).
- Schwarber bats .175 with 1 of his 8 home runs coming against lefties.
- Again, this is not an ideal spot weather-wise for home runs; 46 degrees at first pitch, with 8 mph winds blowing in from center.
- Wrigley Field's hitting environment is very sensitive to weather; although the wind is expected to be lighter today, 10 mph winds blowing in decreases home runs by 33%, according to Baseball America.
- On average, Wrigley is the 26th-worst park for home runs, per Baseball Savant.
Add Kyle Schwarber to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani vs. Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants – 9:45 p.m. ET
- Shohei Ohtani hasn’t stacked long balls like we are used to, recording 5 home runs thus far.
- Big flies may come sooner rather than later, considering Ohtani’s 25.0% barrel rate (99th percentile) and 53.3% hard-hit rate (89th percentile).
- Furthermore, he’s still getting solid lift with a 43.5% fly ball rate, but the Japanese phenom has an 18.5% HR/FB compared to a 29.4% mark last season.
- Giants SP Tyler Mahle carries a 7.23 ERA and 3.85 xFIP over four starts and 18.2 innings pitched.
- He holds an alarming 2.89 HR/9 allowed, with opponents enjoying an 18.2% barrel rate (second percentile).
- Mahle has given up a 42.9% HR/FB thus far.
- Ohtani is 1-for-9 with 3 Ks vs. Mahle in his career.
- Winds will be blowing out to center field in San Francisco tonight, per RotoGrinders’ MLB Weather Report.
- In six games at Oracle Park last year, Ohtani hit 2 long balls.
- Since 2024, no other park is worse for home runs than the Giants' Oracle Park, with just 77 hit in that span. Oracle ranks 24th in Park Factor — not the ideal environment for home run hitting.
Add Shohei Ohtani to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Make MLB HR Predictions on PrizePicks
Among today’s most popular HR picks, will any of these sluggers go yard? Popular home run hitters like Judge, Ohtani, and Schwarber top the list, with Buxton also a popular pick against the struggling Mets.
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your HR predictions on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
Pick MLB players, predict More or Less on their stats like home runs, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can also make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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