A lot of things come into play for MLB DFS, such as starting pitching matchups and location of games. Weather is another key factor that can sway outcomes in MLB games in a few different ways — and not just with postponements.
If you’re not making a habit of checking weather before making your MLB DFS picks, you should be. We’ll explain why it’s key to know the MLB weather before building your MLB Lineups on PrizePicks.
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Impact of Rain on MLB DFS
The most obvious MLB weather factor to consider is precipitation. If there is rain in the forecast, an MLB game could be postponed. However, a postponement isn’t the only concern when filling out your lineups.
Delays are also an issue, both before and during the game. Both can ruin a pick if a starting pitcher gets scratched or yanked early due to rain.
A game being delayed before it starts isn’t ideal, especially if it’s a lengthy delay that could last multiple hours. It can throw off the routine of the starting pitchers. Wet conditions might also mean that hitters are less likely to try and steal a base because of a slick infield.
An in-game delay is also a concern, especially when attacking projections for pitcher strikeouts and outs recorded. If you were to select more for a pitcher strikeout projection, a lengthy delay early in the game usually means that the starter won’t return once play resumes.
In general, look to avoid MLB games where rain is involved, especially when it comes to pitching.
Impact of Temperature on MLB DFS
As a general rule for MLB DFS, warmer temperatures and humid air means better hitting weather.
Warm, humid air is less dense than cool air, which helps the ball travel farther. In a study of data from between 1962 and 2019, it was found that a game that is 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the average game would have nearly 20% more home runs than the average.
The same goes for humidity. A game that’s high in humidity is more conducive to home runs, as the ball will fly farther on humid days. This is because higher humidity makes the air less dense than it will on a dry day.
Impact of Winds on MLB DFS
It’s also important to factor in wind conditions for MLB DFS. If there are strong winds blowing in from the outfield, it decreases the chances of hitting home runs, and also can turn doubles into fly outs.
If there are strong winds blowing out toward the outfield, it can increase the chances for home runs. Strong winds blowing out can turn warning-track fly balls into home runs.
For hitters, wind blowing out is a huge plus, especially if you’re targeting power hitters. However, for pitchers, wind over 12 mph can be disastrous as it amplifies mistakes.
How to Use MLB Weather to Your Advantage
While winds blowing out to center, high heat, and humid conditions don’t guarantee hitters will go yard, it does help set you up for success in MLB DFS.
When starting your research for MLB DFS on PrizePicks, it’s a good idea to look into weather conditions for each game. This MLB weather tool from Swish Analytics is a great place to check on every game. including wind, rain, and temperature.
If a game is cold with the wind blowing in, it may be worth discounting hitters in that game. On the other hand, if a game is warm with the wind blowing out to the outfield, you should consider bumping up power hitters.
Use MLB Weather to Win on PrizePicks
Targeting favorable matchups is important for having success in MLB DFS. So is knowing the weather for games, including the temperatures, wind conditions, and the possibility for precipitation.
Be sure to examine the weather for each MLB game before targeting projections on PrizePicks to build your Lineup.
Just predict if an MLB player will go More or Less than their projections — like hits or strikeouts — to build your Lineup on PrizePicks and win real money if your picks are correct.
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