Top MLB Home Run Picks Today on PrizePicks – Thursday, August 20

Thursday, August 20 brings us a beautiful nine-game slate of baseball from your late-morning cup of coffee to winding down before bed. Plenty of sluggers are stepping into the box today, and we will be using hard-hit rates, weather, pitcher/batter splits, and more to analyze which ones could go yard.

PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s schedule.

Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Thursday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.

Make your MLB home run picks for Thursday, August 20, on PrizePicks now.

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Top Home Run Picks Today – Thursday, August 20

We all know hitting a home run is one of the hardest things to do in professional sports. However, with a little bit of research, we can use a variety of trends to determine which mashers could be primed to circle the bases today.

How hard is each player hitting the ball, and are those batted balls on the ground or in the air? Do they match up well against the pitcher on the mound? What direction is the wind blowing? That’s just the tip of the iceberg.

Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are Demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. You can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.

Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.

1. Braves 1B Matt Olson
2. Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
3. Braves OF Ronald Acuna Jr.
4. Orioles 1B Pete Alonso
5. Royals SS Bobby Witt Jr.
6. Rays 3B Junior Caminero
7. Yankees DH Ben Rice
8. Mariners OF Julio Rodriguez

Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher and advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.

Royals SS Bobby Witt Jr.

Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals – 2:10 p.m. ET

Athletics Starting Pitcher: Gage Jump (15 GS, 5-7, 3.98 xFIP, 41.4% hard-hit, 36.5 FB%)

MLB Weather Report: 80 degrees, clear skies, and 3 mph winds in from CF.

• Gage Jump is giving up some glorious numbers for right-handed hitters with power to take advantage of. He surrenders a 36.5% fly ball rate and a 41.4% hard-hit rate to RHB.
• Bobby Witt Jr. has a monster 47% hard-hit rate against LHP to go along with a 44% fly ball rate.
• Witt has increased his fly ball rate to 47.1% in the second half of the season and has popped a pair of home runs in his last four games.
• Ten of his 15 home runs have come in Kauffman Stadium, where his .306 average is over 40 points better than his road average of .261.
• Witt is also striking out just 11.7% of the time against left-handed pitching.
• Jump is a fastball/slider pitcher, throwing those two pitches a combined 66.1% of the time. Witt has mashed both those pitches to the tune of a 2.6 wFB/C and a 2.7 wSL/C.

Add Bobby Witt Jr. to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Mariners OF Julio Rodriguez

Seattle Mariners vs. Milwaukee Brewers – 2:10 p.m. ET

Brewers Starting Pitcher: Robert Gasser (14 GS, 3-5, 4.26 xFIP, 39.1% hard-hit, 45.9 FB%)

MLB Weather Report: This game is played in a dome.

• Gasser has been serving up the long ball to right-handed hitters all season, leading to a monster 2.02 HR/9 against them.
• He is giving up a fly ball 45.9% of the time and a hard-hit ball 39.1% of the time when seeing righties as well.
• Rodriguez has an incredible 45.4% hard-hit rate and 46.4% fly ball rate against LHP, pairing it with a 1.4 mph better exit velocity than matched up against righties.
• He also owns a better launch angle (15.9 degrees vs. 12.9 degrees) and barrel rate (12.4% vs. 7.8%) vs. southpaws.

Add Julio Rodriguez to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Astros DH Yordan Alvarez

Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros – 8:10 p.m. ET

Angels Starting Pitcher: Grayson Rodriguez (13 GS, 3-5, 4.65 xFIP, 37.7% hard-hit, 38.7 FB%)

MLB Weather Report: This game is played in a dome.

• Yordan has only hit one home run in his last 18 games. Some may find that concerning, but I see that as an elite hitter potentially due for significant positive regression in the power department.
• He gets the matchup to do it against Rodriguez, who is allowing a 37.7% hard-hit rate and a 38.7% fly-ball rate against LHH.
• Yordan has an absolutely absurd 204 wRC+ against RHP, buoyed by his ridiculous 52.9% hard-hit rate and 49% fly-ball rate against them.
• He has banged 20 of his 36 home runs at home, and his .369 home average is over 100 points better than his road average of .262.
• Rodriguez throws his fastball 53.1% of the time. Yordan has straight-up tattooed the offering to the tune of a 14.7 wFA/C, his best mark against any pitch this year.

Add Yordan Alvarez to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks

Yordan Alvarez will look to get back to his home run-hitting ways as he chases Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber (37) for the top home run total in MLB. Bobby Witt Jr. and Julio Rodriguez don’t have monster home run totals for the season but do possess immense power and beautiful matchups on Thursday.

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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