Following a week of severe storms, cooler weather has swept across the Midwest, harming the home run environment for multiple games featured in Wednesday, August 19’s slate. Reds SS Elly De La Cruz looks to combat cool weather tonight, while players like Orioles 1B Pete Alonso continue to benefit from high temperatures.
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s schedule.
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Wednesday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.
Make your MLB home run picks for Wednesday, August 19, on PrizePicks now.
{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Top Home Run Picks Today – Wednesday, August 19
Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind flying? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.
Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
- Braves 1B Matt Olson
- Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
- Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
- Orioles 1B Pete Alonso
- Cubs OF Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Rays 3B Junior Caminero
- Yankees DH Ben Rice
- Padres OF Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Reds SS Elly De La Cruz
- Mariners OF Randy Arozarena
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
Orioles 1B Pete Alonso
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles – 6:35 p.m. ET
Yankees Starting Pitcher: Will Warren (23 GS, 8-6, 3.81 xFIP, 35.6% hard-hit, 35.3 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 84 degrees, clear skies, and 3 mph winds out to RF
- Pete Alonso’s been on an absolute tear in August, sporting an absurd .373/.448/.661 slash line.
- He’s recently upped the ante for long balls, logging 5 home runs over his previous nine appearances.
- Meanwhile, Yankees SP Will Warren carries an alarming 6.09 ERA over eight starts since July. That includes yielding 9 HRs in the split and 3 big flies in his previous outing.
- Those recent struggles have inflated Warren’s numbers to 1.37 HR/9 and a 14.5% home run-to-fly ball rate (HR/FB) allowed—which are above the 1.17 and 11.7% league averages.
- Anchored by 28 taters on the season, Alonso carries a 21.4% HR/FB, .540 xSLG (98th percentile), 13.9% barrel rate (90th percentile), and 56.2% hard-hit rate (98th percentile).
- Warren’s most-used pitches are a four-seam fastball (37.0%) and a sinker (26.8%), and Alonso bats .289 and .333 against the pitches, paired with hitting 16 of his 28 HRs vs. the tools.
Add Pete Alonso to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Reds SS Elly De La Cruz
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds – 6:40 p.m. ET
Cardinals Starting Pitcher: Matthew Liberatore (24 GS, 5-10, 4.17 xFIP, 37.9% hard-hit, 40.2 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 74 degrees, 26% chance of rain, and 2 mph winds out to LF
- As usual, Great American Ball Park is a reliable target for dingers, featuring the third-most HRs (115) for Baseball Savant’s Park Factors over the last three years.
- That factor is carrying to Ballpark Pal’s +17% home run factor on Wednesday—the third-highest mark for today’s slate.
- Elly De La Cruz has several strong slugging numbers, including a .466 xSLG (81st percentile), 93.9 average exit velocity (98th percentile), 13.6% barrel rate (90th percentile), and 51.5% hard-hit rate (94th percentile).
- Cardinals SP Matthew Liberatore suggests a favorable matchup could be in store for Elly, as the left-handed hurler cedes an 8.5% barrel rate (33rd percentile).
- Liberatore’s 40.2% fly ball rate allowed (league average is 39.0%) is particularly concerning in Great American Ball Park. He allowed 3 home runs over two starts at Cincinnati in 2025.
- De La Cruz carries an exceptional .658 SLG against southpaws, compared to .403 when facing righties.
Add Elly De La Cruz to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies – 8:40 p.m. ET
Rockies Starting Pitcher: Kyle Freeland (22 GS, 4-10, 4.23 xFIP, 45.2% hard-hit, 38.7 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 84 degrees, 13% chance of rain, and 5 mph winds toward 3B
- Shohei Ohtani has dominated the Rockies with 5 hits over 10 at-bats (.500) on Monday and Tuesday. Further, he recorded 3 home runs in the split, reaching 30 long balls for his sixth consecutive season.
- The two-way superstar sports a .309/.365/.632 slash line in August. He features a 23.3% HR/FB on the season, but that’s jumped to 31.6% this month.
- Backed by his recent hot streak, Ohtani may be in store for another big night in Coors Field—which has the highest home run factor on Wednesday (+26%), per Ballpark Pal.
- Rockies SP Kyle Freeland is someone who can be exposed, proven by a 1.64 HR/9 and 14.2% HR/FB.
- However, Freeland is shining in August, including a complete game and 8.0 innings pitched in his most recent start. Over three appearances, he carries an excellent 1.27 ERA.
- But Ohtani could have the answer, as Sports Reference gives the Dodgers’ designated hitter a .563/.611/1.188 slash line over 16 career at-bats against Freeland.
- Those head-to-head numbers also feature Ohtani launching 3 home runs against Colorado’s starter.
Add Shohei Ohtani to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks
Shohei Ohtani looks to stay red-hot in a favorable environment, as he chases Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber (37) for the top home run total in MLB. Pete Alonso isn’t far from the 30-home run club either, needing only 2 taters to reach the threshold.
Don’t wait until the first pitch—make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.
Stay locked in on Playbook for daily MLB predictions, picks, and news every day all the way through the 2026 MLB season.
Team Picks and Culture Picks are event contracts offered by Performance Predictions II, LLC d/b/a PrizePicks Predict, a CFTC-registered FCM and NFA Member. All event contract customers must be U.S. residents and 18+. Some event contracts may not be available in every state.Event contract trading carries significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. No guarantee against loss is offered. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.Void where prohibited by law. Restrictions apply. For full terms of service see prizepicks.com/predict-regulatory. Team and Culture Pick Early Payouts subject to market liquidity. The content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation to trade any commodity interest.
