Best MLB Home Run Picks Today – Thursday, September 3

Thursday, September 3 brings us a quality 10-game MLB slate, with games running from early afternoon in Pittsburgh to late night in Los Angeles. We have plenty of home run sluggers stepping in the box today, and we'll be using hard-hit rates, weather, pitcher/batter splits, and more to analyze which ones may have the best chance to leave the yard. 

PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s schedule.

Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Thursday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.

Make your MLB home run picks for Thursday, September 3 on PrizePicks now.

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Best Home Run Picks Today – Thursday, September 3

We all know hitting a home run is one of the hardest things to do in professional sports. However, with a little bit of research, we can use a variety of trends to determine which mashers could be primed to circle the bases today.

How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are their batted balls on the ground or in the air? Do they match up well against the pitcher on the mound? What direction is the wind blowing? That’s just the beginning when it comes to breaking down home run projections.

Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are Demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.

Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.

1. Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
2. Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
3. Mariners C Cal Raleigh
4. Orioles 1B Pete Alonso
5. Mariners OF Julio Rodriguez
6. Rays 3B Junior Caminero
7. Dodgers 3B Max Muncy
8. Guardians 3B Jose Ramirez
9. Cubs CF Pete Crow-Armstrong
10.  White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami

Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.

Astros DH Yordan Alvarez

Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros – 2:10 p.m. ET

White Sox Starting Pitcher: Luis Castillo (22 GS, 4-10, 4.47 xFIP, 37.7% hard-hit, 48.7 FB%)

MLB Weather Report: Game played under a roof

• Alvarez has faced Castillo 24 times in his career and is 12-for-24 with 5 long balls against him.
• Yordan has been otherworldly at home this season with a .368 average and a 220 wRC+ at Minute Maid Park compared to a .262 average and 143 wRC+ on the road.
• Castillo’s worst split has been on the road against LHH, where he's allowing an absurd 3.03 HR/9 on the back of a 5.68 xFIP.
• He's also been a long-ball machine in the second half of the season, giving up 2.88 HR/9 compared to his first-half mark of 1.23 HR/9.
• Castillo is ceding a 48.7% fly ball rate and 37.7% hard-hit rate against LHB. Alvarez is mashing RHP to the tune of a 52.9% hard-hit rate and 49.3% fly ball rate.

Add Yordan Alvarez to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Cubs CF Pete Crow-Armstrong

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs – 7:15 p.m. ET

Brewers Starting Pitcher: Logan Henderson (14 GS, 9-2, 3.26 xFIP, 38.8% hard-hit, 51.7 FB%)

MLB Weather Report: 82 degrees, 22% precipitation, and 6 mph winds blowing right to left

• Crow-Armstrong has been on a power binge in the second half, owning an outstanding .388 ISO compared to his first-half mark of .240.
• He's also been tremendous at home, slugging 23 of his 38 home runs at Wrigley while hitting .309 at home compared to .252 in away games.
• Henderson's struggled with the long ball, allowing a 1.3 HR/9. That's been more pronounced in the second half, where his HR/9 has jumped to 1.69.
• Henderson is allowing a 38.8% hard-hit rate and a 51.7% fly ball rate to lefties. PCA is mashing RHP to the tune of a 45.6% hard-hit rate and a 52.9% fly ball rate.

Add Pete Crow-Armstrong to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Mariners C Cal Raleigh

Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners – 9:40 p.m. ET

Athletics Starting Pitcher: Jack Perkins (12 GS, 3-10, 4.37 xFIP, 34.1% hard-hit, 43.4 FB%)

MLB Weather Report: Game played under a roof

• Last year’s HR leader has rediscovered his power stroke, slugging 6 home runs over his last eight games.
• He has increased his ISO from .140 in the first half to .275 in the second half while also slugging 11 home runs in just 131 PA compared to 9 over 242 PAs in the first-half split.
• Raleigh has shown to be more of a power hitter when swinging the bat from the right side, which he'll be doing tonight against a LHP in Perkins. Last season, Raleigh hit .281 with 22 HR in 185 ABs against LHP compared to hitting .231 in 411 ABs against RHP.
• Perkins has struggled mightily with the long ball, giving up a 1.7 HR/9. In the second half of the year, that mark has increased from 1.56 to 1.91, in addition to his K/9 dropping from 11.24 to 8.84.

Add Cal Raleigh to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Crow-Armstrong aims to continue to make his push for NL MVP while adding to his 38 home runs in an awesome matchup at home. Despite hitting 37 jacks, Alvarez has just 1 in his last 16 games but gets a dream spot to add to that tally. Raleigh’s power stroke is back, and he will look to continue racking up the long balls at home.

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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