Friday night baseball could feature fireworks as some of the league’s best sluggers gear up for favorable matchups tonight.
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s slate.
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Friday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.
Make your MLB home run picks for Friday, April 24, on PrizePicks now.
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Top Home Runs Picks Today – Friday, April 24
Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind flying? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.
Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Friday’s most popular HR picks are headlined by White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami, Yankees OF Aaron Judge, Astros DH Yordan Alvarez, and Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani.
Below, we’ll break down each hitter’s matchup for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox – 7:40 p.m. ET
National Starting Pitcher: Miles Mikolas (3 GS, 0-3, 5.06 xFIP, 26.0% hard-hit, 37.5% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 66 degrees, clear skies, and 8 mph winds out to RF
- Munetaka Murakami has played in only 25 MLB games, and he already has one of the best nicknames in baseball, dubbed the Southside Samurai.
- It’s a well-earned nickname, as Murakami’s 10 home runs are currently tied for the second-most in baseball.
- This is laced with plenty of strong slugging numbers, such as his .649 xSLG (98th percentile), 24.5% barrel rate (99th percentile), and 64.2% hard-hit rate (99th percentile).
- His absurd 38.5% home run-to-fly ball rate (HR/FB) is well above the league average of 10.7%.
- The Nationals will put SP Miles Mikolas on the mound, and he’s allowed 6 home runs over five appearances.
- Washington’s right-handed starter is keeping lift in check with a 37.5% fly ball rate, but he’s surrendering an alarming 22.2% HR/FB.
- Murakami bats .281 with 7 of his 10 homers coming against right-handed pitching, compared to .174 and 3 big flies vs. lefties.
- Winds to right field may further aid the lefty slugger.
Add Munetaka Murakami to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Yankees OF Aaron Judge
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros – 8:10 p.m. ET
Astros Starting Pitcher: Lance McCullers Jr. (4 GS, 1-1, 4.01 xFIP, 38.9% hard-hit, 35.2% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: Weather is not a factor in the domed Minute Maid Park
- Aaron Judge’s current .571 SLG is on pace for his lowest mark since .544 in the 2021 season.
- He’s still managed to smash 9 long balls — the third-highest mark in MLB.
- Furthermore, Baseball Savant gives Judge a 25.4% barrel rate (100th percentile) and 54.2% hard-hit rate (93rd percentile).
- His 33.3% HR/FB is even better than last season’s 29.4% HR/FB that helped fuel 53 HRs.
- Astros SP Lance McCullers Jr. has a 0.89 HR/9 that’s under the league average of 1.05.
- He’s kept HRs in check thanks to a 35.2% FB% that sits under the 38.5% league average.
- Judge bats .233 with 4 dingers against right-handed hurlers, dropping from .258 and 5 home runs when facing southpaws.
Add Aaron Judge to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros – 8:10 p.m. ET
Yankees Starting Pitcher: Will Warren (5 GS, 2-0, 2.74 xFIP, 26.9% hard-hit, 32.8% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: Weather is not a factor in the domed Minute Maid Park
- Baseball’s current home run champion is Yordan Alvarez with 11 big flies.
- His Baseball Savant page is loaded with red, including an .868 xSLG (100th percentile) and a 21.2% barrel rate (96th percentile).
- This kind of HR production needs some serious lift, and Alvarez has done just that with a ridiculous 57.6% fly ball rate that’s far above the league average of 38.5%.
- Tonight features a good-on-good matchup, as Yankees SP Will Warren touts a 2.49 ERA and 2.80 SIERA.
- Warren’s yielded a 32.8% fly ball rate, and Alvarez bats .306 against righties compared to .424 vs. left-handed hurlers.
- The Yankees starter’s most-used pitches are a four-seam fastball (43.3%) and a sinker (25.1%). Only 3 of Alvarez’s 11 home runs have come against these pitches.
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Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers – 10:15 p.m. ET
Cubs Starting Pitcher: Jameson Taillon (4 GS, 1-1, 4.71 xFIP, 34.4% hard-hit, 54.0% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 67 degrees, clear skies, and 9 mph winds out to CF
- When is Shohei Ohtani not among the most popular home run picks? Winds blowing out to center field certainly help his case, too.
- Ohtani is still sitting at 5 home runs and has not sent one out of the park since April 12.
- This isn’t from a lack of hard contact, though, sporting a 22.1% barrel rate (97th percentile) and a 51.5% hard-hit rate (88th percentile).
- His 42.6% fly ball rate is on par with 40.4% and 43.9% from the 2024 and 2025 seasons, but Ohtani’s 17.2% HR/FB is a notable dip from 28.0% and 29.4% in his last two campaigns.
- Cubs SP Jameson Taillon could be exactly what the doctor ordered, as he’s yielding 2.38 HR/9, a 54.0% FB%, and a 17.6% HR/FB.
- Ohtani is hitting a dire .221 vs. righties compared to .308 when facing southpaws, giving Taillon a potential advantage.
Add Shohei Ohtani to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks
The usual faces like Judge and Ohtani are among the most popular home runs picks today, and Murakami has quickly made a name for himself as one of the best sluggers in the big leagues. Will Chicago’s first baseman launch his 11th home run of the 2026 season on Friday?
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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