The 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament is down to just four teams, and this weekend’s National Semifinals will showcase the best squads in the country.
Tipping off Saturday’s action are Illinois and UConn, who clash at 6:09 p.m. ET on TBS and truTV. While the Huskies are coming off a thrilling last-second victory over Duke, the Fighting Illini took down Iowa by a 12-point margin in the Round of 8.
The latter victory sent a clear message to the nation: Illinois intends to stick around until it’s the last team standing. There are numerous reasons why Illinois basketball can win the National Championship, but three specific justifications rise above the rest.
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2026 NCAA Tournament National Championship Winner Payouts
Below are the current payouts for each team to win the National Championship game in the NCAA Tournament, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Michigan Wolverines: 2.7x
- Arizona Wildcats: 2.77x
- Illinois Fighting Illini: 5x
- UConn Huskies: 6.25x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Why Illinois Can Win the National Championship
The Illini have one of college basketball’s best teams, making them a natural fit as a National Championship winner. Here’s why Illinois basketball can win the NCAA Tournament.
A World-Class Offensive Attack With Elite Efficiency
Simply put, it’s hard to find a more effective offense than that of Illinois. That was true coming into the NCAA Tournament, and it’s becoming even more obvious now that the Illini are one of just four teams left in the dance.
According to KenPom, head coach Brad Underwood’s crew boasts the top-ranked offensive rating at 131.7. That’s despite sitting 296th nationally in both adjusted tempo (65.3) and luck (-0.042), which are both factors that normally could sway a metric in the wrong direction.
Depending on who you ask, that pace is even lower. Per EvanMiya, Illinois is 346th in true tempo, yet still owns the highest offensive efficiency rating (20.7) of any team remaining in the field. Illinois has a winning formula.
Although the Fighting Illini are nothing special from 3-point land (34.8% mark ranks 129th), they jack up the 12th-most trey-balls per game at 30.7. They also get seemingly whatever they want inside the arc (57.9%, 22nd) and are a top-10 offensive rebounding team (12.0, seventh), which creates additional scoring chances.
Five Illini players average double-digit points, and four of those options shoot 45% or better from the field. With Consensus All-American G Keaton Wagler leading the way — more on him later — this offense is difficult to stop.
Underrated Prowess on the Defensive End
There isn’t much chatter about Illinois’ impressive defense, but there probably should be. This unit has held three consecutive NCAA Tournament foes to fewer than 60 points, flexing its muscles at the perfect time.
By KenPom standards, this is the 20th-best defense in the nation with a 97.4 rating. Bart Torvik echoes that sentiment, giving the Fighting Illini the same rating in adjusted efficiency at 97.9.
Even while playing more talented opponents in the last 10 games, Underwood’s defense is a healthy 29th. That stretch has also seen the Illini improve their forced turnover rate from 11.8% to 12.7%.
Good luck generating quality looks against this team. Via CBB Shot Charts, Illinois allows just a 56.9% conversion rate at the rim. Midrange shots are a bad idea, as evidenced by ugly marks in the short (38.9%) and long (36.1%) areas. Think extending to 3-point land is wise? Try again, as the Illini are a top-40 defense there, too.
Add in the lowest average free throw allowance of all Division I teams (12.3), and you get the gist. Illinois isn’t quite a juggernaut on this end of the floor, but it’s certainly no slouch, either.
The Keaton Wagler Effect
When elite teams play in high-stakes games, it’s oftentimes the best individual talents that make the ultimate difference. Entering Saturday’s game, the Illini have perhaps the best player for either side with Wagler.
The true freshman was under-recruited out of high school, making Illinois landing him seem like a genius discovery. He’s rewarded that faith to the tune of 17.9 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game. A 24.1 player efficiency rating is tremendous, and Wagler’s 11.2 BPM is sixth among all freshmen.
A 6-foot-6 guard, Wagler has rare control over the game. Teams have a challenging time speeding him up, as he plays at his own pace. He’s a 3-point marksman, having knocked down 40.7% of his tries on 5.8 attempts each night.
Wagler’s bucket-getting ability was on full display against Iowa, when he poured in 25 points on 6-of-10 shooting from deep. He’s been a net positive, via BPM, on both ends in each round of the NCAA Tournament.
Per Bart Torvik, 48 other players can match Wagler’s usage rate (25.6%) and share of team minutes (83.4%). In that group, he’s second in offensive rating (131.0), 11th in true shooting percentage (59.7%), and owns the ninth-lowest turnover clip (12.4).
On PrizePicks Team Picks, Wagler returns a 6.66x payout if he’s named the NCAA Tournament’s Most Outstanding Player. Ahead of the 2026 NBA Draft, his payouts to be selected in the top 10 are 1.06x for Yes and 6.25x for No.
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Make NCAA Tournament Picks on PrizePicks
If Illinois can get past a tough, tried, and true UConn team, it’ll have just one more obstacle in its way for the rest of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.
Regardless of whether you’re backing the Illini or another program as this year’s National Championship winner, you can turn your college hoops predictions into cash.
Make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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