The first pitch for the finale of the Subway Series between the New York Yankees (28-18) and the New York Mets (19-26) is set for 1:40 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 17, with the Mets returning a 1.78x payout to win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
The Mets were able to even the series with a 6-3 win on Saturday, producing 3 runs vs. Yankees SP Carlos Rodon. The Yankees had some chances for a big inning, including bases loaded with no outs in the seventh, but they came up empty.
Below, we'll break down our Yankees vs. Mets prediction and picks for Sunday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your Yankees vs. Mets picks for the Subway Series on PrizePicks — now available in New York!
{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Yankees vs. Mets Prediction, Winner, Over/Under – Sunday, May 17
The Yankees will send SP Ryan Weathers to the bump (2.85 xFIP across 9 starts and 49.1 IP in 2026), who has been stellar with at least 5 innings while allowing 2 or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts. The Mets will counter with SP Freddy Peralta (3.69 xFIP across 8 starts and 45 IP in 2026), who has allowed 3 or fewer runs in 8 straight starts.
After a rough start to the season, are the Mets turning things around? A victory today will seal the series against their crosstown rivals and could provide the motivation they need to fuel a turnaround this season.
The Mets' pitching staff has carried them throughout May, ranking fourth in xERA (3.34) and eighth in xFIP (3.66). Peralta has pitched better than expected over his last two starts, with a 1.64 ERA compared to a 3.16 xERA. While he’s putting himself in tough situations, he’s coming away with little damage, thanks to his 95.2% left-on-base percentage, according to FanGraphs.
The Yankees' rotation has been one of the best, leading the league with a .271 wOBA allowed and third with a 3.09 ERA. Weathers has played a significant role, posting some of the best stats of his career, including a 3.00 ERA, a .288 wOBA allowed, and a 29.8% strikeout rate.
It also helps when you have some of the top hitters in baseball. The Yankees have two potential MVP candidates; according to PrizePicks Team Picks, OF Aaron Judge has the shortest payout to win the American League MVP (1.96x), while 1B Ben Rice has the third-shortest payout (14.28x).
Make your MLB predictions for the 2026 season on PrizePicks Team Picks.
Yankees vs. Mets Winner Payout, Over/Under – Sunday, May 17
The Mets enter Sunday’s game as slight home favorites, returning a 1.78x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Yankees vs. Mets game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Mets -1.5 (2.63x payout)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (1.81x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Yankees 1.92x | Mets 1.78x
Play the Yankees vs. Mets winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Yankees vs. Mets Prediction on Winner for Subway Series – 5/17/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Yankees vs. Mets prediction on the winner for Sunday, May 17.
Lock in your Yankees vs. Mets prediction on PrizePicks for Game 3 of the Subway Series.
- While Weathers’ career .325 xBA and .443 wOBA against the Mets roster look bad on paper, those numbers are based on only 22 plate appearances across three players (Marcus Semien, Juan Soto, and Austin Slater).
- The two Yankees with the most experience against Peralta have had success. First baseman Paul Goldschmidt is 9-for-35 with 5 doubles and 2 home runs, and OF Cody Bellinger is 6-for-14 with 1 double and 1 home run.
- Weathers has improved his chase rate, going from 26.9% (27th percentile) in 2024 to 32.0% (64th percentile) this season. That could help against a Mets lineup that ranks 22nd in chase rate (31.4%).
- Peralta is below average in certain spots, allowing a 93.8 exit velo (37th percentile) and 9.0% walk rate (49th percentile). The Yankees lead the league with a 90.8 average exit velocity and a 12.0% walk rate.
- The Mets have struggled to close out a series, going just 4-10 in series finales this season.
Yankees vs. Mets Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 5/17/26
Here are the top Yankees vs. Mets picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday, May 17. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Ben Rice and Juan Soto.
Yankees 1B Ben Rice vs. Mets: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
- In a small sample size, Rice is 1-for-2 with a 1.297 xSLG against Peralta.
- The Yankees' first baseman has been on fire in this series, going 4-for-9, with 1 home run, 1 RBI, and 3 runs scored.
- Rice is one of the most lethal bats in baseball, as his 57.7% hard-hit rate ranks sixth in the league. That could be an advantage against Peralta’s 37.4% hard-hit rate, which only ranks in the 60th percentile.
- Peralta throws the four-seam fastball and changeup for a combined 77.4% of his pitches. Rice’s .600 wOBA against the four-seam fastball is the second-best among the eight types of pitches he’s seen this season, and his .499 wOBA against the changeup is his third-best mark.
Add Ben Rice to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Mets OF Juan Soto vs. Yankees: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- The Mets left fielder is one of the top power hitters in the league, ranking in the 96th percentile in xSLG (.574), the 90th percentile in exit velo (92.6), and the 85th percentile in hard-hit rate (48.9%).
- Soto has an excellent history against Weathers, going 4-for-8 with 1 home run.
- He sits in the 97th percentile with a 19.5% barrel rate. That’s a big advantage against Weathers, whose 11.5% barrel rate allowed ranks in just the 14th percentile.
- The former Yankee has been stellar against his old team, going 7-for-17 with 2 home runs and 4 RBI over his last five matchups dating back to last season.
Add Juan Soto to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make Yankees vs. Mets Picks on PrizePicks
After the Yankees took the first game of the Subway Series, the Mets came right back to even the series. The winner of the rubber match comes with bragging rights until they meet again in September.
Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Yankees vs. Mets picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stay locked in on Playbook for daily MLB predictions, picks, and news every day all the way through the 2026 MLB season.
