Monday night’s MLB slate is jam-packed with matchups, as all but two teams are set up to compete under the bright lights. With a ton of skilled sluggers taking the field, which ones could swat a home run to kick off the week?
Here at PrizePicks, we have plenty of home run projections on the board to add to your MLB picks today. Many hitters have already been singled out by users as popular home run picks for the day’s action.
Let’s dive into some of the most-picked MLB home run projections for Monday, May 18, including what makes each player a potential target for home run predictions.
Make your MLB home run picks for Monday, May 18 on PrizePicks now.
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Top Home Run Picks Today – Monday, May 18
A well-struck home run might be everyone’s favorite part of a baseball game. With that said, accomplishing that feat is so much easier said than done, as there’s a multitude of factors that go into it.
Players can have all the raw power in the world, but circumstances impact where a batted ball ends up. Weather, launch angle, barrel location, ballpark dimensions, pitcher dynamics and more all go into home run probability. Are some players in better positions than others entering Monday’s play?
Daily home run projections are listed as Demons on PrizePicks, coming with higher payouts as a result. With that said, home runs can only be selected as “More” than 0.5.
Let’s take a look at the most popular home run picks today on PrizePicks. Picks are listed at time of writing.
- Yankees RF Aaron Judge
- Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
- Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
- Angels CF Mike Trout
- Rays 3B Junior Caminero
- Phillies 1B Bryce Harper
- Braves 1B Matt Olson
- Twins CF Byron Buxton
Three home run picks stand out as potential targets today. Let’s dive into the list, including a weather report from RotoGrinders.
Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.
Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
Reds vs. Phillies – 6:40 p.m. ET
Reds Starting Pitcher: Nick Lodolo
MLB Weather Report: 90 degrees, clear skies, 10 mph south wind
- MLB’s home run leader has been otherworldly in the month of May, posting a .672 SLG and .433 ISO that oftentimes is only replicated in video games.
- Schwarber’s 24.0-degree launch angle and 25.9% barrel rate are both new personal highs.
- An absurd 33.33% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio puts Schwarber among some truly elite current and historical company.
- Lodolo is allowing 2.89 HR/9, well above his career average of 1.31.
- Opponents are barreling Lodolo up 20.7% of the time. His previous career high of 12.7% came back in 2023.
- According to Ballpark Pal, Monday’s matchup conditions at Citizens Bank Park are 31% more conducive for a home run to be hit.
Add Kyle Schwarber to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Braves 1B Matt Olson
Braves vs. Marlins – 6:40 p.m. ET
Marlins Starting Pitcher: Max Meyer
MLB Weather Report: Played in a dome
- With a .315 ISO and .591 SLG, Olson is having his best power season since 2023, when he clobbered 54 home runs.
- At the age of 32, Olson’s 74.6 mph bat speed and 47.8% fast-swing rate are both the highest of his career in the tracking era (2024 to now).
- The veteran first baseman is in the 90th percentile or higher in hard-hit rate (50.8%), barrel rate (17.4%), and average exit velocity (93.5 mph).
- Meyer has been a boom-or-bust pitcher this year, ranking in the 89th percentile in whiff rate (31.9%) but slotting into the 18th percentile in barrel rate (10.9%).
- After surrendering just 0.60 HR/9 in March and April, Meyer is up to 1.02 in the month of May.
Add Matt Olson to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Rays 3B Junior Caminero
Orioles vs. Rays – 6:40 p.m. ET
Orioles Starting Pitcher: Trevor Rogers
MLB Weather Report: Played in a dome
- Tampa Bay’s young star infielder has already clubbed 12 home runs to go with a .233 ISO and .488 SLG.
- The 22-year-old xSLG of .490 is right in line with his season mark, indicating that his recent performance is sustainable. He also has a .248 BABIP, 15 points lower than his career average.
- In addition to being in the 100th percentile for bat speed (79.8 mph), Caminero is in the 84th percentile for average exit velocity (91.5 mph).
- As expected, Rogers fares worse against right-handed hitters, as evidenced by jumps in his HR/9 (0.48) and SLG (.182).
- Rogers is surrendering 1.31 HR/9, the highest figure since his 28-inning cup of coffee in 2020’s debut campaign.
Add Junior Caminero to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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A wide range of players could go yard on Monday, but a select group rises to the top. Could Caminero be one of the standouts and hit jacks in back-to-back days for the Rays?
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