MLB closes out the weekend with a full 15-game slate on Sunday, August 16. The action begins with a 12:15 p.m. ET first pitch between the Baltimore Orioles and the Tampa Bay Rays and closes out with a 7:20 p.m. ET start for the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros on Sunday Night Baseball.
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s schedule.
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Sunday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.
Make your MLB home run picks for Sunday, August 16, on PrizePicks now.
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Top Home Run Picks Today – Sunday, August 16
Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind flying? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.
Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
1. Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
2. Rays 3B Junior Caminero
3. Cubs CF Pete-Crow Armstrong
4. Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
5. Braves 1B Matt Olson
6. Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
7. Yankees 1B Ben Rice
8. Red Sox OF Wilyer Abreu
9. Padres OF Jackson Merrill
10. Marlins OF Heriberto Hernandez
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
Red Sox OF Wilyer Abreu
Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - 1:35 p.m. ET
Pirates Starting Pitcher: Lake Bachar (4 GS, 1-2, 4.12 xFIP, 28.2% hard-hit, 47.1 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 78 degrees, 56% chance of rain, and 10 mph winds from RF towards LF
- Wilyer Abreu has been ripping the cover off the baseball in the month of August. His .511 ISO leads all hitters with at least 30 plate appearances—sitting miles clear of second-place Matt Olson’s .429 mark.
- Abreu has also posted a 242 wRC+ in that timeframe, while notching a .356 average and striking out just 8.8% of the time.
- The Red Sox OF comes into Sunday’s game off a 3-for-4 performance on Saturday, including a home run with a 110.8 mph exit velocity, and he’s gone yard in five of his last 12 games.
- The Pirates have pushed back the scheduled start of SP Paul Skenes, meaning this will be a bullpen game. They’ll begin the day with RP Lake Bachar, who has limited hard contact but has a FB% of 47.1% and ranks in the 17th percentile of barrel rate allowed.
- Winds will be blowing out to left field at PNC Park today, with Ballpark Pal assigning a +18% home run factor from weather conditions. That’s good news for the left-handed hitter who has sent 42.9% of his batted balls into center field this month, paired with just a 35.8% pull rate on the season.
Add Wilyer Abreu to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Marlins OF Heriberto Hernandez
Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds - 1:40 p.m. ET
Reds Starting Pitcher: Nick Lodolo (13 GS, 3-2, 4.69 xFIP, 39% hard-hit, 34.7 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 87 degrees, 72% chance of rain, and 9 mph winds towards LF
- Heriberto Hernandez has struggled since the All-Star break, but his work against LHP makes this an intriguing option. In just 100 ABs vs. LHP, Hernandez has hit 9 HR and posted a .320 ISO.
- The Marlins OF also holds a 32.1% HR/FB rate against southpaws, with a 55.4% pull rate.
- Hernandez ranks in the 89th percentile in hard-hit rate, while ranking in the 85th percentile or better in xSLG and exit velocity.
- Cincinnati is sending lefty Nick Lodolo to the bump on Sunday, whom Baseball Savant ranks in the 25th percentile in barrel rate allowed, 2nd percentile in xERA, and 8th percentile in FB run rate.
- Lodolo is making his second start after spending a month on the IL after dealing with a blister. He went just 4.0 innings on Tuesday against the White Sox, who tagged him for 3 home runs on just 70 pitches thrown. He’s posted a .486 wOBAA this season.
- Baseball Pal has extremely favorable conditions for hitters today at Great American Ball Park. While there may be a rain delay, the HR factor of +25% is the second-best of any game on the docket today.
Add Heriberto Hernandez to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Padres OF Jackson Merrill
San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians - 1:40 p.m. ET
Guardians Starting Pitcher: Tanner Bibee (25 GS, 4-12, 4.28 xFIP, 38.9% hard-hit, 41.4 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 81 degrees, 68% chance of rain, and 9 mph winds towards RF
- Since the All-Star break, Jackson Merrill ranks 9th in ISO (.315), 10th in OPS (.987), 13th in wRC+ (168), and 25th in HR/FB rate (22.5%).
- Merrill is also drilling the ball, ranked 11th in hard-hit rate in that span (48.8%), which puts him ahead of hitters like Yordan Alvarez and Pete Alonso.
- As a result, his 9 HR ranks him third among all players since the break. He’s averaging a dinger every 12 ABs and has hit 3 bombs in the last week.
- Merrill has hit 13 of his 19 HRs this season off RHP.
- Tanner Bibee has been rocked by left-handed hitters, who have notched 17 HR from just 66 hits.
- In the month of August, Bibee has already surrendered 3 HR in just 12.0 IP with an 18.8% HR/FB rate while allowing a 50.0% pull rate.
- Baseball Savant has Bibee ranked in the 34th percentile in barrel rate, 33rd percentile in exit velocity, and 27th percentile in breaking run value.
- Progressive Field has a +19% HR value today via Ballpark Pal, with weather alone adding a +21% HR value.
Add Jackson Merrill to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks
Wilyer Abreu’s 11 home runs since the All-Star break are the most of any player, and he’s a favorable option to go yard again today. Jackson Merrill and Heriberto Hernandez are also strong options to take advantage of favorable pitching matchups and the mid-August Ohio heat.
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