Brewers vs. Dodgers Prediction, MLB Picks for Sunday, August 16

The Milwaukee Brewers (76-48) vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers (74-50) is set for 4:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, August 16, with the Dodgers returning a 1.51x payout to win, via PrizePicks.

On Saturday, the Brewers had their top pitcher on the mound, and SP Jacob Misiorowski did not disappoint. The Miz allowed 1 earned run and struck out 6 batters over 6.0 innings, helping the Brewers earn a 4-1 win. In the series finale, the Brewers have a chance to secure a 3-1 series win in Los Angeles and extend their lead atop the National League.

Below, we'll break down our Brewers vs. Dodgers prediction and picks for Sunday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

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Brewers vs. Dodgers Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Sunday, August 16

The Brewers will feature SP Logan Henderson (2.99 xFIP in 56.1 IP, 11 starts) in Sunday's matchup.

Last year, right elbow inflammation cut Henderson’s rookie season short. This year, he left his first start after suffering a lower-back strain and was out until May.

Based on what we’ve seen when he’s on the mound, Henderson could become an important part of the Brewers’ rotation if he stays healthy. Milwaukee's starter has yet to allow more than 3 earned runs in any of his 16 career starts and has more strikeouts than innings pitched in 13 of those starts. 

Henderson primarily mixes his four-seamer and changeup to keep hitters unbalanced. His four-seamer averages 93.0 mph, while his changeup comes in at 82.5 mph. That velocity difference disrupts a hitter’s timing, and his 31.9% strikeout rate, which ranks in the 96th percentile, reflects how well he leans on that strength.

The Brewers are proving the Dodgers should be nervous about their title defense. Over the first three games of this series, they’ve enjoyed excellent pitching from their starters.

On Thursday night, Milwaukee erased a 2-run deficit in the ninth inning to secure a comeback win. If it wins today to take the series 3-1, it will gain a 3.0 lead above the Dodgers for first place in the National League. The Braves aren't far behind with a 2.5-game deficit before Sunday's action.

The Dodgers will counter with SP Tarik Skubal (2.68 xFIP in 107.2 IP, 18 starts) in the series finale on Sunday. He was a major trade acquisition, adding to a loaded L.A. rotation, but Skubal hasn't looked like the elite pitcher who has won the last two American League Cy Young Awards.

His fastball velocity has decreased from 97.4 mph in 2025 to 96.7 mph this year, and his first-strike rate has dropped from 71.5% last season to 67.8% in 2026. That could explain why Skubal has battled some rough patches this season, including a stretch in which he allowed 7 home runs over 4 starts. 

Even though he hasn’t been as good as in previous years, he still has a strong 3.01 xERA, which ranks in the 89th percentile.

During the marathon of a 162-game season, even the best teams hit a rough patch. That's currently the case for the Dodgers, having dropped 10 of their last 15 games. They went through a similar stretch last year, going 10-14 in July, but few remember that when the result was hoisting the World Series trophy.

Brewers vs. Dodgers Winner Payout, Over/Under – Sunday, August 16

The Dodgers enter Sunday’s game as home favorites, returning a 1.51x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Brewers vs. Dodgers game on PrizePicks.

Make your Brewers vs. Dodgers prediction on the spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 36 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Brewers vs. Dodgers Prediction on Over/Under – 8/16/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Brewers vs. Dodgers prediction on the run total for Sunday, August 16.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• The Dodgers’ game total has hit the under in 55.7% of their home games, the seventh-highest rate in the league.
• Skubal could benefit from the Brewers struggling against left-handed pitchers, including a 306 wOBA (24th) and a 6.0% barrel rate (26th) in the split.
• The Dodgers rank fifth in strikeout rate and walk rate, but this could be a challenge against Henderson, who ranks in the 96th percentiles in strikeout rate and walk rate. 
• While the Brewers have a strong 24.2% whiff rate that’s the eighth-lowest in the league, forcing swings and misses is one of Skubal’s strengths, as his 32.2% whiff rate is in the 91st percentile.
• The game total has finished at 7 runs or fewer in 8 of Henderson’s 11 starts this season.

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Brewers vs. Dodgers Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 8/16/26

Here are the top Brewers vs. Dodgers picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday, August 16. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Jackson Chourio and Shohei Ohtani.

Brewers LF Jackson Chourio vs. Dodgers: 5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Chourio has a history of success against Skubal, going 2 for 6 lifetime.
• Skubal is allowing a 7.5% barrel rate, which only ranks in the 50th percentile. Chourio excels in this category, posting a 13.5% barrel rate that sits in the 87th percentile.
• Chourio has performed better against left-handed pitchers, including a .383 wOBA against lefties compared to .335 vs. righties.
• Skubal throws the four-seamer on 40.0% of his pitches to right-handed hitters—which carries his highest mark. Chourio will look for that four-seamer, as he has a .562 xSLG and .424 wOBA against the pitch.

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Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani vs. Brewers: 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Ohtani is 1 for 2 lifetime against Henderson, providing some comfort for this hitter fantasy score.
• Henderson struggles with an 8.9% barrel rate allowed, placing him in the 28th percentile. Ohtani is among the best at getting the ball on the barrel, with a 16.6% barrel rate in the 96th percentile.
• The National League MVP candidate has recorded an extra-base hit in five of his last six games.
• Henderson will throw mostly changeups and four-seamers, which account for 82.0% of his pitches to left-handed hitters. Ohtani has no problem against either pitch, posting a .421 wOBA against the changeup and a .358 wOBA against the four-seamer.

Add Shohei Ohtani to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Brewers vs. Dodgers Picks on PrizePicks

In what could be a playoff series preview, the Brewers and Dodgers have headlined an exciting series in Los Angeles. The Brewers have a 2-1 series lead, but the Dodgers have their big trade acquisition, Tarik Skubal, on the mound in an attempt to split the series.

Don’t wait until the first pitch happens—make your Brewers vs. Dodgers picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

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