All 30 MLB teams will be in action on Sunday, May 17, headlined by a rubber match in the Subway Series. The day begins with the Marlins vs. the Rays at 12:15 p.m. ET and ends with the Padres vs. Mariners at 7:20 p.m. ET on Sunday Night Baseball.
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s slate. After hitting 2 home runs in the Crosstown Classic vs. the Cubs, will White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami hit another big fly as one of the most popular HR picks on PrizePicks?
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Sunday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.
Make your MLB home run picks for Sunday, May 17, on PrizePicks now.
{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Top Home Run Picks Today – Sunday, May 17
Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind flying? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.
Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
- Yankees OF Aaron Judge
- Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
- Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
- Braves 1B Matt Olson
- Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
- White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami
- Yankees 1B Ben Rice
- Angels OF Mike Trout
- Cardinals OF Jordan Walker
- Orioles 1B Pete Alonso
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox – 2:10 p.m. ET
Cubs Starting Pitcher: Colin Rea (6 GS, 2-1, 3.78 xFIP, 36.0% hard-hit, 31.1% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 78 degrees, 17% chance of rain, and 17 mph winds toward home plate
- After launching 2 dingers in Saturday’s 8-3 win over the Cubs, Munetaka Murakami may take a step back on Sunday afternoon.
- The weather is not helping the slugger’s cause, proven by strong winds blowing toward home plate.
- Cubs SP Colin Rea has allowed 1.28 HR/9, which is above the 1.06 league average.
- However, positive regression could be ahead, as Rea’s 36.0% hard-hit and 31.1% flyball rates allowed are well under the 33.3% and 38.6% league averages.
- According to Baseball Savant, Rea’s most-used pitches are a four-seam fastball (38.4%) and splitter (19.6%).
- Murakami, “The Southside Samurai,” bats only .255 against four-seamers and has yet to record a hit when seeing splitters this season.
Add Munetaka Murakami to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels – 4:07 p.m. ET
Angels Starting Pitcher: Grayson Rodriguez (20 GS, 13-4, 3.57 xFIP, 32.5% hard-hit, 38.1% FB% in 2024)
MLB Weather Report: 72 degrees, clear skies, and 9 mph winds out to LF
- After batting .284 with a .537 SLG in April, Shohei Ohtani has struggled with a .188 average and .354 SLG in May.
- However, the two-way superstar finally found his footing with 5 hits over 12 at-bats (.417) over his last three games.
- This split included 2 doubles, 1 triple, and 1 HR, producing an elite 80.0% extra-base hit rate.
- Angels SP Grayson Rodriguez hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since 2024 due to a wide range of injuries.
- Rodriguez typically leans on a four-seam fastball and changeup, and Ohtani bats .288 against heaters throughout his career and is raking to the tune of .348 against changeups in 2026.
- We may see a shortened start from Rodriguez, and the Angels’ bullpen allows a 12.6% HR/FB (27th).
- Ohtani carries an exceptional 27.5% HR/FB across his career.
Add Shohei Ohtani to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Angels OF Mike Trout
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels – 4:07 p.m. ET
Dodgers Starting Pitcher: Roki Sasaki (7 GS, 1-3, 4.96 xFIP, 34.0% hard-hit, 43.8% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 72 degrees, clear skies, and 9 mph winds out to LF
- After posting a 5.67 xERA and 5.53 xFIP last season, Dodgers SP Roki Sasaki continues to struggle with a 5.66 xERA and a 4.96 xFIP this season.
- He allowed an above-average 13.6% HR/FB in 2025, and that’s further elevated to an alarming 19.6% through seven starts in his second campaign.
- According to Baseball Savant, Sasaki resides in the 11th percentile of barrel rate allowed (12.3%) and 15th percentile of hard-hit rate allowed (46.2%).
- Mike Trout has the tools to make the Dodgers’ starter pay in a crosstown rivalry, proven by his .587 xSLG (97th percentile), 22.6% barrel rate (98th percentile), and 51.4% hard-hit rate (91st percentile).
- Trout’s 19.6% HR/FB could spell trouble for Sasaki, who has yielded a pitiful 2.41 HR/9.
- Furthermore, the L.A. starter has permitted a big fly in six consecutive starts, averaging 1.5 home runs allowed per outing in the split.
Add Mike Trout to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks
Munetaka Murakami may cool off in the Crosstown Classic on Sunday. In another rivalry on the West Coast, Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout carry favorable matchups to go yard today.
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stay locked in on Playbook for daily MLB predictions, picks, and news every day all the way through the 2026 MLB season.
