The Miami Marlins vs. the Tampa Bay Rays will take the spotlight on Peacock, with the first pitch set for 12:15 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 17. The Rays enter as home favorites, returning a 1.58x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
The interstate rivals will clash in two three-game series this season. Today caps the first series of the season. The two South Florida teams have split the first two meetings of the series, with Tampa Bay winning game one 7-2, followed by Miami responding with a 10-5 victory last night.
Below, we'll break down our Marlins vs. Rays prediction and picks for Sunday’s MLB game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your Marlins vs. Rays picks on PrizePicks now.
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Marlins vs. Rays Prediction, Winner, Over/Under – Sunday, May 17
The Marlins are currently second-to-last in the NL East with a 21-25 record. They are 5-5 over their last 10 games with a -10 run differential on the season, the latter of which is the seventh-worst in the NL.
The Rays are currently 29-15 and lead the competitive AL East by two games over the New York Yankees. They have won 17 of their last 21 games and are a legitimate threat to win the division for the first time since 2021.
Tampa Bay has been a true surprise story this season. The club consistently ranks near the bottom of the league in payroll, yet overperforms every season, which is a major hat tip to manager Kevin Cash.
Marlins vs. Rays Winner Payout, Over/Under – Sunday, May 17
The Rays enter Sunday’s game as home favorites against the Rays, returning a 1.58x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Marlins vs. Rays game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (2.27x payout)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (2x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Marlins - 2.27x | Rays - 1.58x
Play the Marlins vs. Rays winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Marlins vs. Rays Prediction on Spread – 5/17/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Marlins vs. Rays prediction on the run line for Sunday, May 17.
Lock in your Marlins vs. Rays prediction on PrizePicks before the first pitch.
- Tampa Bay is a stellar 28-17-0 (62.2%) against the spread (ATS) this season, the second-best covering record in baseball.
- Miami is a pitiful 20-26-0 (43.5%) ATS so far.
- Tampa Bay has the more potent offense today with a 100 wRC+, which ranks 12th and is six spots ahead of the Marlins at 18th, per FanGraphs.
- The starting pitcher matchup may favor Tampa Bay as well, with Rays SP Drew Rasmussen (2.99 xFIP) toeing the rubber against Marlins SP Eury Perez (4.35 xFIP).
- Miami’s bullpen is just .23 points better in xFIP compared to the Rays, but Miami’s pen has the lowest BABIP in baseball (.243). This suggests they have been incredibly lucky with balls in play and are likely due for some negative regression.
Marlins vs. Rays Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks – 5/17/26
Here are the top Marlins vs. Rays picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday, May 17. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Eury Perez vs. Drew Rasmussen.
Marlins SP Eury Perez vs. Rays: 5 Strikeouts
- Eury Perez has shown tremendous strikeout upside in his young career, but today he catches a matchup against one of the lowest strikeout teams in baseball.
- The Rays are striking out just 18.9% of the time, sitting as the second-lowest rate in the majors.
- Over the last 14 days, that number drops even further to 17.9%.
- Perez has struggled on the road this year, with this marking the third consecutive season in which he's posted a significantly higher xFIP away from Miami.
- For context, he has a 3.89 xFIP in Miami compared to 5.03 on the road this season.
Add Eury Perez to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Rays SP Drew Rasmussen vs. Marlins: 5 Strikeouts
- This projection feels a tad low for Drew Rasmussen, who has been nothing short of magnificent with a 2.99 xFIP and 2.97 SIERA.
- He has an impressive 9.07 K/9, backed by a fairly legit 10.8% SwStr%.
- In tandem with his swinging strike rate, he has an unbelievable 71.8% first-strike percentage, which is roughly 15.0% above the league average. This means he is consistently getting into favorable counts and putting hitters on the back foot from the minute they step into the batter's box.
- Miami is a pretty average team in terms of striking out, ranking 17th with a 21.6% K%.
- Rasmussen has met or exceeded this projection in six of his eight starts this season (75%).
Add Drew Rasmussen to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make Marlins vs. Rays Picks on PrizePicks
Enjoy some daytime Sunday baseball before the best two words in sports this evening: Game 7. Before the Cavaliers and Pistons battle in the NBA Playoffs, the Marlins vs. Rays is just one of the games you can make your predictions on PrizePicks.
Don’t wait until lock — make your Marlins vs. Rays picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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