Top MLB Home Run Picks Today on PrizePicks – Friday, August 14

Nearly all of MLB is bringing its hard hats to work on Friday, as 14 games bring 28 of the league’s 30 teams into the spotlight to usher in another weekend. With several elite sluggers taking the field from afternoon through the night, there could be quite a few long balls crushed.

Here at PrizePicks, we have plenty of home run projections on the board to add to your MLB picks today. Many hitters have already been singled out by users as popular home run picks for the day’s action.

Let’s dive into some of the most-picked MLB home run projections for Friday, August 14, including what makes each player a potential target for home run predictions. 

Make your MLB home run picks for Friday, August 14 on PrizePicks now.  

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Top Home Run Picks Today – Friday, August 14

As August nears its midpoint, seven players have already slugged 30 home runs and another three are within striking distance of crossing that threshold. Some players naturally find themselves boasting advantages in the power department, but it comes from much more than just sheer strength.

Multiple elements are out of the hitter’s dominion. Weather, ballpark dimensions, pitcher tendencies, and more can be accounted for but not changed in the batter’s box. Things that can be controlled, however, include bat speed, barrel quality, swing path, launch angle, and the like. 

Which players could be in good positions to swat a homer on Friday? Daily home run projections are listed as Demons on PrizePicks, coming with higher payouts as a result. With that said, home runs can only be selected as “More” than 0.5. 

Let’s take a look at the most popular home run picks today on PrizePicks. Picks are listed at the time of writing.

1. Rays 3B Junior Caminero
2. Braves 1B Matt Olson
3. Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
4. Orioles 1B Pete Alonso
5. Tigers C Dillon Dingler
6. Astros 1B Christian Walker
7. Yankees 1B Luis Garcia Jr.
8. White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami

Three home run picks stand out as potential targets today. Let’s dive into the list, including a weather report from RotoGrinders.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani

Brewers vs. Dodgers – 10:10 p.m. ET

Brewers Starting Pitcher: Robert Gasser

MLB Weather Report: 72 degrees, clear skies, 9 mph southwest wind

• Ohtani’s power production may not be reaching 2024 or 2025 heights, but he’s still one of the best in the business. He enters Friday with a .252 ISO, .408 wOBA, and 150 wRC+ in 116 games.
• For the third straight season, the Japanese superstar is holding a pull-air percentage of at least 20%. His 20.1% clip this year highlights his ability to tap into same-field pop.
• Ohtani ranks in the 92nd percentile in launch angle sweet-spot share (39.5%), as well as the 95th percentile in hard-hit rate (52.4%) and the 96th in barrel rate (16.7%). 
• Gasser has allowed 1.49 HR/9 in 72.2 innings over the last two seasons, sporting a 4.69 FIP in that span.
• The veteran lefty throws his sweeper more often than any pitch (26.6%) to the tune of a .472 opponent SLG. Ohtani owns a commanding .578 SLG when seeing the offering on 152 tries. 

Add Shohei Ohtani to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Orioles 1B Pete Alonso

Orioles vs. Rays – 7:10 p.m. ET

Rays Starting Pitcher: Steven Matz

MLB Weather Report: Played in a dome

• Alonso has been on fire since the start of June, posting a .527 SLG, .246 ISO, and 157 wRC+.
• The Polar Bear’s average exit velocity of 94.2 mph is by far the highest of his career, and his 56.5% hard-hit rate eclipses 2025’s 54.4% mark as a new personal best as well.
• The star first baseman may be in for some positive regression, as his xSLG of .536 is significantly higher than his actual SLG of .480.
• In his age-35 campaign, Matz is showing some signs of slowing down, evidenced by 12 home runs given up in just 62.2 innings of work. 
• Matz routinely gets clobbered, ranking in just the fourth percentile in barrel rate at 11.8%. That, paired with a 20th-percentile chase rate of 27.7%, could leave him vulnerable against a premier power bat. 

Add Pete Alonso to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Yankees 1B Luis Garcia Jr.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays – 7:15 p.m. ET

Blue Jays Starting Pitcher: Shane Bieber

MLB Weather Report: Played in a dome

• The Garcia power breakout is here in full force. He’s already topped his previous career high in home runs and owns a .271 ISO that’s a huge increase over his lifetime .163 mark.
• This is the first time Garcia has achieved a double-digit launch angle (11.5 degrees) or a double-digit barrel share (12.0%). 
• Speeding up the bat has helped the former Washington Nationals standout in a big way. His average bat speed of 74.2 mph is 1.8 higher than a year ago, and his 42.8% fast-swing rate has increased by 14.8% year over year.
• Garcia has a massive lefty-righty platoon split. He has an ugly .344 SLG and 56 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this year but respective benchmarks of .590 and 147 when facing right-handed hurlers.
• Bieber has struggled in limited action, sitting in the first percentile in xERA (7.24), the ninth percentile in barrel rate (10.7%), and the 10th percentile in hard-hit clip (44.3%). 

Add Luis Garcia Jr. to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Under the Friday night lights, which stars will be able to add to their impressive home run totals? The likes of Ohtani, Alonso, and Garcia Jr. might just do so given their friendly matchups as the weekend approaches. 

Don’t wait until first pitch — make your MLB home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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