The Atlanta Braves (32-15) will begin a four-game series against the Miami Marlins (21-26) on Monday, May 18 at 6:40 p.m. ET.
This is the second series between Atlanta and Miami this season, as the Braves won the first three-game set 2-1 in early April. Ahead of the first pitch, the Marlins are narrow home favorites with a 1.85x payout if they defeat the Braves, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Below, we'll break down our Braves vs. Marlins prediction and picks for Monday’s MLB contest, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your Braves vs. Marlins prediction on PrizePicks for today’s game.
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Braves vs. Marlins Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, May 18
To get this series between National League East foes underway, it'll be the Braves’ JR Ritchie (5.17 xFIP across 4 starts and 21.2 IP in 2026) and the Marlins’ Max Meyer (3.48 xFIP across 9 starts and 47.2 IP) toeing the rubber.
Ritchie, who is one of the top prospects for the Braves, has gotten off to a shaky start. According to Baseball Savant, Ritchie resides in the 33rd percentile in xERA (4.54) and the fifth percentile in walk rate (16.1%), while his 80th-percentile xBA (.215) is a positive.
Despite RF Ronald Acuna Jr. missing time, Atlanta’s lineup has produced the second-best wRC+ (116), second-best wOBA (.340), and second-best ISO (.179), per FanGraphs. This has helped them record the best record in the league up to this point.
Entering Monday’s showdown, the Braves are tied with the second-highest payout (6.25x) to win the World Series, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
As a former first-round pick, Meyer is showing signs of potentially turning a corner, though his 41st-percentile xERA (4.27) and 37th-percentile xBA (.251) are slight concerns. Meyer’s 3.21 ERA and 1.15 WHIP are career-best marks at the moment.
In the early going this season, Miami’s lineup has been a below-average unit, tallying the 13th-worst wRC+ (97), 13th-worst wOBA (.315), and sixth-worst ISO (.129). As a result, the Marlins have lost four of their first five series in May.
Braves vs. Marlins Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, May 18
The Braves enter Monday’s game as road favorites, returning a 1.85x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Braves vs. Marlins game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Miami Marlins -1.5 (2.7x payout)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (1.88x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Braves 1.88x | Marlins 1.85x
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Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Braves vs. Marlins Prediction on Winner – 5/18/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Braves vs. Marlins prediction on the winner for Monday, May 18.
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- Against right-handed pitching, the Braves have the best wRC+ (121), best wOBA (.349), and best ISO (.187).
- While Ritchie is an inexperienced starter, the Marlins have the 12th-worst wRC+ (98), 12th-worst wOBA (.316), and third-worst ISO (.127) when facing righties.
- The Braves don’t mind playing away from home, as they have the third-best wRC+ (118), third-best wOBA (.344), and best ISO (.194) in road contests.
- Atlanta has a slight edge in the bullpen, as their relievers are recording the fourth-best xERA (3.52), 10th-best xFIP (3.88), and second-best WHIP (1.13).
- As for Miami’s bullpen, they possess the 13th-worst xFIP (4.19), 11th-best xERA (3.91), and 15th-worst WHIP (1.29).
- Although it’s still early, the Braves have the highest win rate as road underdogs (66.7%). They also have the highest win rate on the road (69.6%) with a 16-7 record in that split.
- The Marlins have been average at home, posting the 15th-best win rate (53.9%) at loanDepot park.
Braves vs. Marlins Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks: 5/18/26
Here are the top Braves vs. Marlins picks to target on PrizePicks for Monday, May 18. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include 1B Matt Olson and 3B Austin Riley.
Braves 1B Matt Olson vs. Marlins: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- Among hitters with 100+ PAs, Matt Olson has the 12th-best wRC+ (158), 14th-best wOBA (.403), and eighth-best ISO (.315).
- Olson is crushing righties to the tune of a 183 wRC+, .439 wOBA, and .363 ISO in 2026.
- While Olson has gone hitless in three straight games, he’s also registering a stellar 193 wRC+, .455 wOBA, and .427 ISO in road outings.
- Meyer's coughed up at least 6 hits and multiple ER in back-to-back starts.
Add Matt Olson to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Braves 3B Austin Riley vs. Marlins: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
- Despite Austin Riley getting off to a sluggish start, he’s coming off a multi-hit outing where he totaled 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 double, and 2 runs on Sunday.
- Similar to Olson, Riley has better numbers on the road this year, earning a 102 wRC+ and .320 wOBA compared to a 75 wRC+ and .280 wOBA at home.
- Just last season, Riley had better metrics against righties, notching a 105 wRC+, .321 wOBA, and .172 ISO in that split. He had a 97 wRC+, .309 wOBA, and .156 ISO against lefties.
- Meyer has reverse splits on the mound, permitting a 3.52 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP, and 1.23 HR/9 to right-handed hitters. He has a 3.44 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, and 0.35 HR/9 to left-handed hitters.
Add Austin Riley to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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The Braves have been the best team in baseball so far, and they’ll look to continue rolling against the Marlins on Monday. Can Miami slow down Atlanta, or will the Braves emerge victorious as the visiting team?
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Braves vs. Marlins picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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