The first pitch of Game 2 of the Subway Series between the New York Yankees (28-17) and the New York Mets (18-26) is set for 7:15 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 16, televised by FOX. The Yankees are favored with a 1.75x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
The Yankees dominated the first game of the series, taking a lead with a 3-run third inning and never letting it go in the 5-2 win. Starting pitcher Cam Schlitter continued his dominance, going 6 innings, allowing 1 earned run on 2 hits, and 9 strikeouts. This was the fifth-straight start Schlitter has allowed 1 or fewer runs in at least 5 innings pitched.
Below, we'll break down our Yankees vs. Mets prediction and picks for Saturday’s Subway Series matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your Yankees vs. Mets picks for the Subway Series on PriePicks — now available in New York!
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Yankees vs. Mets Prediction, Winner, Over/Under – Saturday, May 16
On Saturday, the Yankees will send up SP Carlos Rodon (6.07 xFIP in his first start of 2026), who struggled to find the zone in his season debut with 5 walks in 4.1 innings pitched. Today is a bullpen day for the Mets, as they open with RP Huascar Brazoban (4.13 xFIP across 18 appearances, 2 starts, and 21 IP in 2026), who has not pitched more than 3 innings this season.
The Yankees are on a mission this year following an early exit in the 2025 Wild Card Round. They are starting the season as one of the hottest teams in baseball, with the second-best record in the American League and the second-best run differential in MLB at +72.
The Yankees have unfortunately lost some key players to the IL. Shortstop Jose Caballero will miss time with a finger injury, DH Giancarlo Stanton is out with a calf strain, and it was announced on Friday that SP Max Fried is on the shelf with a bone bruise in his left elbow.
When you have the highest payroll in baseball, there is an expectation to be a championship contender. The Mets have come nowhere close to that as they sit in last place in the NL East.
After suffering a 12-game losing streak a few weeks ago, the Mets have a mountain to climb. They have improved of late, winning 8 of their last 12 games, but those victories were against four teams with losing records, including three who are in last place in their divisions (Angels, Rockies, Tigers).
Yankees vs. Mets Winner Payout, Over/Under – Saturday, May 16
The Yankees enter Saturday’s game as road favorites vs. the Mets, returning a 1.75x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Yankees vs. Mets game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Yankees -1.5 (2.22x payout)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (1.88x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Yankees 1.75x | Mets 1.96x
Play the Yankees vs. Mets winner over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Yankees vs. Mets Prediction on Spread for Subway Series – 5/16/26
Here are the key game stats and trends to know for our Yankees vs. Mets prediction on the run line for Saturday, May 16.
Lock in your Yankees vs. Mets prediction on PrizePicks before the first pitch.
- The Yankees have been able to beat up on the bad teams this season, going 26-9 against teams under .500.
- The Mets' .230 winning percentage (3-13 record) against teams above .500 is the second-worst in the league.
- The Yankees are one of the top power offenses in baseball, leading the league in hard-hit rate (45.2%), exit velocity (90.7), and barrel rate (11.7%), per Baseball Savant.
- The Mets may not like seeing the lefty Rodon on the mound. They are 2-9 this season when facing a left-handed starter.
- Furthermore, they rank 27th in wOBA (.279) and 26th in wRC+ (78) against left-handed pitchers, via FanGraphs. The Yankees have three left-handed relief pitchers who could play a factor later in the game.
- Rodon's walk rate may improve in his second start of the season; the Mets rank 24th with an 8.2% walk rate.
Yankees vs. Mets Player Picks,Stats for PrizePicks – 5/16/26
Here are the top Yankees vs. Mets picks to target on PrizePicks for Saturday, May 16. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Cody Bellinger and Bo Bichette.
Yankees OF Cody Bellinger vs. Mets: 5 Hitter FS
- Bellinger is red-hot, with a hit in 12 of his last 15 games, and his .458 wOBA ranks sixth in MLB since April 28.
- He's had success against the Mets' pitching staff with a career 1.015 OPS, including a hit and 2 walks over 6 plate appearances vs. Brazoban.
- Backed by a minuscule 17.6% whiff rate (85th percentile), Bellinger could have success early in this game against Brazoban, whose 25.6% whiff rate is only in the 52nd percentile.
- Bellinger loves playing at Citi Field, with a career .615 SLG and .929 OPS. Each mark is his second-highest total for road ballparks where he's played at least 20 games.
Add Cody Bellinger to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Mets SS Bo Bichette vs. Yankees: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- Bichette has recently struggled against Rodon, with just 2 hits in his last 11 at-bats.
- According to Baseball Savant, Bo is posting some of the worst numbers of his career in his inaugural season in Queens, including career lows in wOBA (.252) and barrels per plate appearance (3.2).
- Bichette has lacked discipline at the plate, with a 39.3% chase rate that ranks in the eighth percentile. That could be trouble against Rodon, whose 29.3% chase rate last season ranked in the 61st percentile.
- Last season, Rodon threw the four-seamer more than any other pitch (41.8%). According to FanGraphs, Bichette has a -3.3 wRAA against that pitch, which is the worst among the eight pitch types of pitches he’s seen this season.
- The slider was Rodon’s second-most thrown pitch. Bichette’s 13.7% swinging-strike rate is the second-worst of the eight pitch types he’s seen in the 2026 campaign.
Add Bo Bichette to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make Yankees vs. Mets Picks on PrizePicks for the Subway Series
Carlos Rodon had a tough 2026 debut, allowing 3 earned runs and 5 walks, as he hopes to rebound against the Mets. Will Rodon turn in a solid start and help the Yankees clinch the Subway Series on Saturday night?
Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Yankees vs. Mets picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right for the Subway Series.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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