First pitch for the Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres game is set for 9:40 p.m. ET on Monday, May 18, with the Dodgers entering as road favorites and returning a 1.63x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win.
Today’s game is the first of 13 matchups between these two heated division rivals this season. The Padres will be looking to have a better showing against the Dodgers this season after Los Angeles won last year’s head-to-head series with a 9-4 record.
Below, we'll break down our Dodgers vs. Padres prediction and picks for Monday’s MLB game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
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Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, May 18
The Dodgers are 29-18 and have started to find their stride recently, winning their last five games. They are second in baseball with a +94 run differential and are the favorites to be back-to-back-to-back World Series champs, something that has only been done by four other teams in the history of MLB.
The Padres, meanwhile, are putting together a quality season of their own, sitting at 28-18 and just half a game back of the Dodgers for the lead in the National League West. Their +7 run differential suggests the wins haven’t been as dominant as those of their California counterparts, but all that matters is the final result.
San Diego has been carried this season by a dominant bullpen, which ranks second in baseball with a 3.41 xFIP. If the Padres intend to upset the Dodgers for the division title or in the playoffs, they'll need more from their offense, which has been lackluster a quarter of the way through the season.
Dodgers vs. Padres Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, May 18
The Dodgers enter Monday’s game as road favorites against the Padres, returning a 1.63x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Dodgers vs. Padres game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (2.08x payout)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (1.81x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Dodgers - 1.63x | Padres - 2.17x
Play the Dodgers vs. Padres spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction on Spread – 5/18/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Dodgers vs. Padres prediction on the spread for Monday, May 18.
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- The most glaring advantage for the Dodgers comes offensively, where they boast the highest wRC+ in the majors at 120 while the Padres rank fifth-worst at 91.
- Despite San Diego's elite bullpen, L.A.'s is no slouch, ranking seventh in baseball with a 3.82 xFIP.
- The starting pitcher matchup also favors the Dodgers. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a 3.36 xFIP, and many of his advanced metrics indicate he could be due for some positive regression in strikeouts and earned run average.
- Michael King is the opposite. While his ERA is impressive, his advanced metrics indicate he could soon be in for a healthy amount of negative regression in future starts.
Dodgers vs. Padres Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 5/18/26
Here are the top Dodgers vs. Padres picks to target on Monday, May 18. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include SPs Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Michael King.
Dodgers P Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Padres Projection: 6.5 Strikeouts
- The Padres are ranked 10th in baseball with a strikeout rate of 23.2%. Over the last seven days, that number jumps even higher to 26.8%, the third-highest in baseball.
- Yamamoto has had more than this projection in four of his last five starts.
- Yoshi only has an 8.64 K/9 this season, compared to 10.42 last year and 10.5 the year prior. If his fortune turns around, he may end the season with strikeout rates similar to his first two seasons in LA.
- Yamamoto's swinging strike rate of 13% is higher than his previous two seasons. He also has a 63.1% first-strike percentage, which is about 12% better than the average pitcher and roughly 1.5% better than his last two seasons.
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Padres P Michael King vs. Dodgers Projection: 95.5 Pitches Thrown
- King owns a nice 2.63 ERA, albeit with a 3.93 xFIP. He also has a BABIP of .240, which is significantly lower than both the league average and his career mark.
- His HR/FB% of 8.7% compared to his career average of 10.9% suggests that fly balls aren't turning into home runs as they have in the past.
- King has already gone below this projection in six of his nine starts this season.
- The Padres only used two low-leverage arms out of the bullpen last night, so they should have a fresh pen ready to go for tonight’s massive matchup against L.A. That could shorten King's leash if he struggles.
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Today’s 14-game slate is an absolute banger with entertaining matchups up and down the board — none more so than Dodgers vs. Padres. That's just one of the games for you to follow along with here at PrizePicks.
Don’t wait until lock — make your Dodgers vs. Padres picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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