Sunday Night Baseball features a series finale between the San Diego Padres (27-18) and the Seattle Mariners (22-25) on Sunday, May 17, at 7:20 p.m. ET. For the primetime clash televised by NBC and Peacock, the Mariners are home favorites with a 1.58x payout if they win, per PrizePicks Team Picks.
Following back-to-back wins, San Diego has already clinched the series and is hunting a sweep tonight. For the third consecutive matchup, the Padres are in the underdog role. Will San Diego pull off the sweep, winning all three games as an underdog?
Below, we'll break down our Padres vs. Mariners prediction and picks for Sunday Night Baseball, including the winner payouts, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your Padres vs. Mariners picks for Sunday Night Baseball on PrizePicks now.
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Padres vs. Mariners Prediction, Winner, Over/Under – Sunday, May 17
Following a 2-0 final in favor of the Padres in Game 1, Saturday’s contest featured a higher run total in San Diego’s 7-4 win.
In line with the Mariners’ 4.2 runs per game (22nd), they’ve struggled with only 2.0 runs per contest in this series. Seattle may have a favorable matchup against Padres SP Lucas Giolito, who is making his season debut after being signed last month.
Mariners SP George Kirby is a known commodity, carrying a strong 2.84 ERA and 2.88 xERA over nine starts and 57.0 innings pitched this season, per FanGraphs. Seattle is 6-3 in Kirby’s starts, fueling the Mariners in the favored role tonight.
Padres vs. Mariners Winner Payout, Over/Under – Sunday, May 17
The Mariners enter Sunday Night Baseball’s matchup as a home favorite against the Padres, returning a 1.58x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Padres vs. Mariners game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners -1.5 (2.22x payout)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (1.92x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Padres 2.27x | Mariners 1.58x
Play the Padres vs. Mariners winner of over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Padres vs. Mariners Prediction on Winner for Sunday Night Baseball – 5/17/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Padres vs. Mariners prediction for the winner on Sunday, May 17.
Lock in your Padres vs. Mariners prediction on PrizePicks before the first pitch.
- According to Baseball Savant, Mariners SP George Kirby regularly keeps hits in the dirt, touting a 57.0% ground ball rate (93rd percentile).
- The Padres had struggled in this category, featuring a 45.1% ground ball rate (fourth-highest).
- Furthermore, San Diego’s 16.0% soft-hit rate is tied for the 10th-highest mark in MLB. Kirby does an excellent job of limiting hard contact with his 3.6% barrel rate allowed (89th percentile) and 0.63 HR/9.
- The Padres have tallied only 3.0 runs per game over their last 10 games. Those struggles could continue against one of the American League’s best starters.
- Meanwhile, Padres SP Lucas Giolito had an alarming 5.01 xERA over 26 starts last season.
- He’s given up 1.42 HR/9 over his nine-season career in the majors, and Seattle’s .412 xSLG (12th) and 1.2 home runs per game (10th) could expose that weakness.
Padres vs. Mariners Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks – 5/17/26
Here are top Padres vs. Mariners picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday, May 17. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Xander Bogaerts and George Kirby.
Padres SS Xander Bogaerts vs. Mariners: 5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- While George Kirby has been excellent, he’s permitted a 40.0% hard-hit rate (46th percentile) and 88.9 average exit velocity (54th percentile).
- Xander Bogaerts has a solid 34.4% hard-hit rate that’s above the league average of 33.3%.
- Bogaerts rarely strikes out with a 16.4% K rate (79th percentile), further supported by a 26.5% chase rate (68th percentile) and 21.4% whiff rate (68th percentile).
- San Diego’s shortstop could have the tools to combat Kirby’s impressive 36.2% chase percentage (92nd percentile).
- Kirby’s most-used pitches are a four-seam fastball (32.1%), sweeper (25.7%), and sinker (19.9%), and Bogaerts bats .275, .313, and .268 against the pitches this season.
Add Xander Bogaerts to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Mariners SP George Kirby vs. Padres: 94.5 Pitches Thrown
- Led by a 36.2% chase rate (92nd percentile) and 6.2% walk rate (83rd percentile), George Kirby has a knack for controlling pitch counts.
- The Padres have an 8.7% walk rate (21st) and a 35.0% chase rate (seventh-highest), feeding Kirby’s strengths.
- If the Mariners’ starter continues to keep pitch counts low, that should mean lower volume. For example, he threw only 88 pitches over seven innings of work on May 5.
- In fact, Kirby has reached 95 pitches in only four of nine starts this season.
- Backed by the Padres’ struggles in walk and chase rates, paired with 3.0 runs per game over the last 10 matchups, Kirby could be in store for a deep, efficient start on Sunday Night Baseball.
Add George Kirby to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make Padres vs. Mariners Picks on PrizePicks
Will the Mariners avoid the sweep with George Kirby toeing the rubber on Sunday Night Baseball? The Padres swept Seattle from April 14 to 16, winning all three games in the underdog role.
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Padres vs. Mariners picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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