USC vs. Michigan: CFB Picks & Predictions
In CFB Week 4, we’ll start seeing teams get into conference play. Looking at this USC vs. Michigan showdown, it's hard to believe it’s a Big Ten conference game.
The 2024 college football conference realignment will take some getting used to, but it potentially means we'll see these powerhouse programs facing off every season.
Let’s break down the top CFB DFS picks for this top-25 matchup between USC and Michigan at The Big House, featuring two teams seemingly headed in different directions.
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No. 11 USC vs. No. 18 Michigan: Time, TV, Location
Date: Saturday, September 21, 2024
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff
Location: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor. Mich.
TV: CBS
After only three weeks, one thing is clear: Michigan is unlikely to defend its National Championship. Everything went right for them in 2023 with their offense and defense, allowing them to maintain a lead on 95% of their snaps.
This year, things are much different in Ann Arbor. The defense has been good, as their 79.6 PFF defensive grade is 41st, but that is nowhere near their 95 rating last year, which led the FBS.
USC had some rebuilding to do as they lost players, including star quarterback Caleb Williams to the NFL Draft. The Trojans have looked great so far, including beating a ranked LSU team. Another signature win on the road here could elevate their buzz even further.
Michigan QB Alex Orji — Less Than 127.5 Passing Yards
The Michigan quarterback position looks different this year as they try to replace J.J. McCarthy. The battle in spring and summer practices was between Davis Warren and Alex Orji.
Warren won, but he has been the laughing stock of the Big Ten, throwing for only 444 yards, two touchdowns, and a whopping six interceptions in three games.
It’s Orji’s turn to start under center, and let’s be honest: his mobility and potential RPO-style might be a better fit for this offense.
He’s not going to light up the scoreboard. USC hired former UCLA defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn to overhaul the defense, and it’s working. The secondary has improved, and the defensive front is playing up to its potential, with ten tackles for loss through two games.
Orji didn’t start in Week 1 due to concerns over his passing ability. The Trojans will be in his face, and he will either take off or throw on the run. Either way, the passing yards won’t be there.
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USC QB Miller Moss — More Than 299.5 Passing Yards (Demon)
Going into this season, the question was whether Moss could fill the shoes of Caleb Williams. It’s early, but USC fans must like what they see. Through two games, he's thrown for 607 yards, 2 touchdowns, zero interceptions, with a 73.9 quarterback rating — 34th in the nation, per PFF.
What might be surprising is his ability to connect on deep throws. Per Sports Info Solutions, Moss has completed 14 of 17 passes with ten or more air yards.
Michigan’s secondary hasn’t posted great numbers so far. Michigan CB Will Johnson is supposed to be their best defensive back, but he’s allowed 12 catches and 11.7 yards per completion this year.
Texas QB Quinn Ewers has a lot to do with those number, but Fresno State QB Mikey Keene also completed seven passes of 10+ yards. Moss has a good shot to get north of 300.
USC WR Kyron Hudson — More Than 24.5 Receiving Yards (Goblin Pick)
If Michigan is expected to give up a lot of passing yards, then we have to mention a USC receiver. Moss has done a great job spreading the ball, as seven players have four or more catches.
We will lock in on Hudson, who looks like his best receiver. Hudson is third on the team in pass snaps, playing alongside Ja’Kobi Lane and Zachariah Branch. He put up an impressive performance last week against LSU, with five catches for 83 yards.
Hudson typically lines up on the left side, with 37 of his 44 snaps out wide, which is where Johnson often covers. These two will see each other throughout the game. Because Moss spreads the ball around, let’s make Hudson our safety play with the Goblin.
Michigan RB Kalel Mullings — Less Than 64.5 Rushing Yards
Michigan played a slow-paced, conservative offense with Jim Harbaugh, and that has not changed with new coach Sherrone Moore. This season, the Wolverines are running the ball on 55.1% of their plays, which is 44th in college football; last week, they ran on 68% of plays.
To try and expose USC's defensive scheme, that number could be similar. The Trojans run a 3-3 and 2-5 defense, which means they have fewer players in the box and more dropping back in coverage. Two high safeties play more freely, so they could come down in coverage.
On early downs, we'll likely see those safeties in the box to stop Mullings, so they can force the Wolverines into third-and-long situations, where Michigan RB Donovan Edwards would play.
While Mullings has been more effective, he’s splitting carries Edwards — each backs have 36 rushes so far this year. Now, he’ll also have to compete with Orji for rushes. Given USC's ability to get tackles in the backfield, Michigan's offense may struggle to get positive chunk plays.
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USC wants to come out and prove they can win in The Big House, just like Texas did. This is their chance to prove that they're legitimate National Championship contenders. If Michigan can pull off this win with Orji under-center, they could silence the fans who have been disappointed with how the season has started.
The easiest way to get real money action on the USC vs. Michigan showdown is on PrizePicks. With PrizePicks, you simply pick more or less on at least two CFB player projections, lock in your lineup, and watch the game.
Just stay in the green to win cash when it’s all said and done.
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