There are 10 movies nominated for best picture at the 2026 Oscars, and the winner will be announced during Sunday’s 98th Academy Awards show.
Sinners leads the charge with a historic 16 nominations at this year’s Oscars, but One Battle After Another is currently favored to win Best Picture, according to user picks on prediction markets like PrizePicks.
For those who want to make Oscars predictions on winners for every award, PrizePicks Culture Picks is the place to do it, available in 48 states. On Culture Picks, you can make predictions and real-money payouts, if you're right, including on best picture, best actor, best actress, and more.
Let’s take a look at the Oscar for Best Picture nominees, favorites, and our best picture prediction.
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2026 Oscars Best Picture Nominees: One Battle After Another Favored to Win
One Battle After Another is the current favorite to win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars, according to real-money user picks on PrizePicks Culture Picks — a prediction market available in 48 states.
Sinners is currently slotted in as the expected runner-up and lone contender to One Battle After Another.
The numbers below represent the real-money payout multipliers for predictions on the Oscars Best Picture winner; a $100 entry on One Battle After Another to win the award pays out $123 if you’re right on PrizePicks.
One Battle After Another: Yes 1.23x | No 3.84x
Sinners: Yes 4.54x | No 1.17x
Hamnet: Yes 22.22x
Sentimental Value: Yes 33.33x
Frankenstein: Yes 33.33x
The Secret Agent: Yes 33.33x
F1: Yes 33.33x
Train Dreams: Yes 33.33x
Bugonia: Yes 33.33x
Tie: Yes 33.33x
Marty Supreme: Yes 33.33x
Note: Payout multipliers are based on the implied probability of each outcome; these payouts reflect market value and user predictions. Lower multipliers indicate the public believes that outcome is more likely.
2026 Oscars Best Picture Winner Favorites
Here are the favorites to win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars. Check out more of our 2026 Oscars predictions and Culture Picks on Playbook.
One Battle After Another
To Win: Yes 1.29x | No 3.57x
Leading up to this year’s Oscars ceremony, One Battle After Another has taken home quite a few prestigious trophies at other award shows. Most notably, OBAA has secured the BAFTA Award for Best Film, the Critics’ Choice Movie Award for Best Picture, and the Golden Globe Award for Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy).
Sinners
To Win: Yes 4.16x | No 1.23x
Although Sinners has been bested by One Battle After Another in the majority of the most prestigious Best Picture awards ahead of the Oscars, it’s done well in other categories. While Sinners does have the overall edge in total nominations and has momentum with Michael B. Jordan gaining steam for Best Actor, it’s still considered a decent-sized underdog.
2026 Oscars Best Picture Prediction
Here is our Best Picture prediction for the 2026 Oscars. To get real-money action and earn real money on your Oscars, head over to PrizePicks Culture Picks — available in 48 states.
2026 was undoubtedly a stellar year for movies, and plenty of the nominees are worthy of taking home the Academy Award for Best Picture. However, the Oscar for Best Picture goes to… One Battle After Another.
Over the years, of the 97 films that have won Best Picture, 70 of them have also won Best Director. The most recent movies to fit this description are Anora (2025), Oppenheimer (2024), and Everything Everywhere All at Once (2023).
Seeing that Paul Thomas Anderson — the director of One Battle After Another — is also the clear favorite to win Best Director, with a 1.06x payout if he wins on PrizePicks' prediction market. The writing is on the wall for OBAA to take the stage when the winner is announced.
Make Real-Money 2026 Oscars Predictions on PrizePicks
Will One Battle After Another be given the Academy Award for Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars? Or will Sinners or another long-shot film pull off a major upset?
You can make your 2026 Oscars predictions on PrizePicks Culture Picks and earn real money. With Culture Picks, make predictions on various subject matters, and cash in if you’re correct, now available in 48 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued 2026 Oscars predictions and other pop ulture picks.
