The 98th Academy Awards features a list of notable names looking to secure their first major award. This applies to a star-studded 2026 Oscars nomination list for Best Actor.
What should we expect for Sunday, March 15’s Academy Awards, televised by ABC at 7:00 p.m. ET? Let’s look at the nominees and make a 2026 Oscars Best Actor prediction.
For those who want to make Oscars predictions for every award, PrizePicks Culture Picks is the place to do it, available in 48 states. On Culture Picks, you can make predictions on each Oscar category to earn real-money payouts if you’re right, including Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, and more.
{{core_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
2026 Oscars Best Actor Nominees: Michael B. Jordan Stars in Sinners
Before circling the favorites and our prediction for Best Actor, let’s look at the full list of five nominees.
PrizePicks Culture Picks lists Michael B. Jordan from “Sinners” as the favorite to take home Best Actor at the 2026 Oscars, featuring a 1.63x payout if he wins the award. Timothee Chalamet is closely behind thanks to his lead role in “Marty Supreme,” with a 2.85x payout to win Best Actor at the 2026 Oscars.
The numbers below represent the real-money payout multipliers for predictions on the Oscars Best Actor winner; a $100 entry on Michael B. Jordan to win the award pays out $156 if you’re right on PrizePicks.
Michael B. Jordan: Yes 1.56x | No 2.43x
Timothee Chalamet: Yes 3.22x | No 1.35x
Wagner Moura: Yes 14.28x | No 1.02x
Leonardo DiCaprio: Yes 16.66x | No 1.01x
Ethan Hawke: Yes 22.22x
Tie: Yes 33.33x
Note: Payout multipliers are based on the implied probability of each outcome; these payouts reflect market value and user predictions. Lower multipliers indicate the public believes that outcome is more likely.
Culture Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
2026 Oscars Best Actor Winner Favorites
Best Actor for the 98th Academy Awards is trending toward a two-horse race between Michael B. Jordan and Timothee Chalamet, proven by the lowest payouts for the award on PrizePicks Culture Picks.
All 2026 Oscars predictions are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Culture Picks payout multipliers, and are not recommendations to trade.
Michael B. Jordan
To Win: Yes 1.56x | No 2.43x
The 2026 Oscars features Michael B. Jordan’s first nomination. He took on a unique double role in “Sinners,” portraying twins named Elijah “Smoke” Moore and Elias “Stack” Moore.
He’s already added to his award case for the role, winning Best Actor at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards.
Timothee Chalamet
To Win: Yes 3.22x | No 1.35x
Timothee Chalamet is no stranger to a Best Actor nomination, as he fell short for the award in 2025 for “A Complete Unknown” and in 2018 for “Call Me by Your Name.” This time Chalamet is a nominee for his colorful portrayal of Marty Reisman, a larger-than-life American table tennis player, in “Marty Supreme.” His performance already earned a 2026 Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy Film.
The 30-year-old star made history as the youngest male actor to earn three Best Actor nominations since Marlon Brando in 1954. But he’s still chasing sweet victory. Will Chalamet finally win Best Actor at the Academy Awards?
2026 Oscars Best Actor Prediction
Here is our Best Actor prediction for the 2026 Oscars. To get real-money action and earn real money on your Oscars, head over to PrizePicks Culture Picks — available in 48 states.
Leonardo DiCaprio in “One Battle After Another,” Wagner Moura in “The Secret Agent,” and Ethan Hawke in “Blue Moon” are all worthy nominees, although Jessie Plemons in “Bugonia” still feels like a snub. With that said, this may come down to Chalamet or Jordan.
Previous award shows can be a good way to assess what’s to come, and Jordan won Best Actor at the Actor Awards — formerly known as the SAG Awards. Neither actor won the BAFTA Award, with Robert Aramayo reigning supreme thanks to his role in “I Swear,” which will be eligible for the 2027 Oscars.
Jordan could have the best argument with “Sinners” carrying the second-lowest payout to win Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars (4.54x), per PrizePicks Culture Picks. “Marty Supreme” also received a nomination for Best Picture but carries a 33.33x payout to win the award.
“Sinners” is beyond just Best Picture, setting an all-time Oscars record with 16 nominations, including Delroy Lindo for Best Supporting Actor. The film directed by Ryan Coogler even had five nominations at the Grammy Awards.
If there’s a big winner at the 2026 Oscars, it could be “Sinners.” Jordan is one of the anchors of the film as the lead, drawing well-deserved flowers for his performance.
{{core_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Make Real-Money 2026 Oscars Predictions on PrizePicks
Will Michael B. Jordan or Timothee Chalamet win Best Actor at the 2026 Oscars, or could a big name like Leonardo DiCaprio crash the party?
You can make your 2026 Oscars predictions on PrizePicks Culture Picks and earn real money. With Culture Picks, make predictions on various subject matters, and cash in if you’re correct, now available in 48 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued Culture Pick predictions.
