Ohio State has been the No. 1 team in college football all season long, cruising to an 11-0 record behind QB Julian Sayin, star WR Jeremiah Smith, plus a shutdown defense that hasn't allowed more than 16 points all season.
But Ohio State's record will hardly matter if the Buckeyes’ regular season doesn’t end in a win over Michigan in the Big House in Ann Arbor, Mich., on Saturday at 12 p.m. ET.
Below, we’ll break down the Ohio State vs. Michigan prediction for The Game – arguably the greatest rivalry in all of college football — plus PrizePicks CFB picks for Saturday’s game to win real money when you pick More or Less on player stats to win real money if you’re right.
Ohio State vs. Michigan Prediction, Preview for The Game
Who can forget Michigan’s upset in Columbus in 2024? A shocking win for the Wolverines — who held the Buckeyes to just 10 points — turned into a blessing for the Buckeyes, who shifted their offensive style to be more aggressive as they entered the College Football Playoff.
This year, No. 15 Michigan will undoubtedly be No. 1 Ohio State’s toughest test in Big Ten conference play. Although the Wolverines are on the outside of the College Football Playoff picture, they have beat rival Ohio State four-straight times.
It has been 2,191 days since Ohio State defeated Michigan in college football. And you can bet that Ohio State coach Ryan Day is ready to put that stat to rest, even if the forecast calls for a 68% chance of snow in Ann Arbor before the game’s end.
Michigan has been mostly unimpressive so far in 2025 though. With true freshman QB Bryce Underwood at the helm, the Wolverines are winless (0-2) vs. ranked teams, putting up 13 points in each of their two games vs. ranked opponents.
Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have a 26.3 point margin of victory this season, third best in college football.
However, none of those Ohio State wins have come vs. a ranked team, save for a 14-7 win vs. Texas in Week 0.
Is this the year the Buckeyes make a statement and shut down their longtime rivals? Or will Michigan shock the nation at home?
Let’s dig into The Game in our Ohio State vs. Michigan prediction and picks for Saturday, November 29.
Ohio State vs. Michigan Spread, Over/Under for The Game
Between 2012 and 2019, Ohio State defeated Michigan in eight straight games. But the script was flipped in 2021; the Wolverines have won four straight games vs. the Buckeyes coming into The Game in 2025. Overall, The Game record stands at 52-51-4, in favor of the Buckeyes
The Wolverines come into this matchup as home underdogs in a key Big Ten matchup.
Ohio State is a 10.5-point favorite vs. Michigan, returning a 1.23x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if the Buckeyes win outright.
The Wolverines are 10.5-point home underdogs with a 3.7x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Ohio State -10.5 (1.96x payout)
- Total: 44.5
- Game Winner Payout: Ohio State 1.23x | Michigan 3.7x
Ohio State Preview vs. Michigan
There’s little doubt that Ohio State is the most well-rounded college football team in the country. The Buckeyes’ weak resume is the only hole you can poke, but even then, Ryan Day’s team has cleaned up week after week.
The key for Ohio State comes in the wide receiver room, where Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate are both questionable to play. Smith missed last week vs. Rutgers but seems likely to play here, while Tate has been out for the last three weeks and looks more uncertain to play.
Both will be needed in this rivalry game; both traveled to Ann Arbor, without further elaboration from head coach Ryan Day on Friday night about their availability.
If they do play — check back on Saturday morning for the final word, it’s a huge boost to the Ohio State offense, as Michigan is the toughest test yet. Michigan ranks eighth in yards per play allowed (4.77) — the next best the Buckeyes have faced in Penn State (20th, 5.17).
The Penn State data point is the best reference for Ohio State in this matchup; in that game, the Buckeyes cruised in Columbus after a few first-half errors. QB Julian Sayin completed 20 of 23 passes for 316 yards and 4 TDs, while Tate and Smith combined for 11 receptions, 147 yards, and 3 TDs.
Sayin has a great case to be a frontrunner for the Heisman; he’s third in EPA/dropback, with 27 TDs to 4 INTs.
On paper, Ohio State’s defense has been shut down — No. 1 in yards per play allowed (4.08), yards allowed per dropback (4.41), and third in expected points added (EPA) per rush (-0.16),
But the Buckeyes also haven’t faced a real top-tier offense, thanks to soft scheduling; the only top-50 offenses they’ve faced are Rutgers (29th in EPA/play) and Penn State (37th). In those games, Ohio State’s defense allowed a combined 23 points, while Sayin threw 6 TDs.
Michigan Preview vs. Ohio State
While Ohio State’s defense hasn’t faced a real test this year, it’s hard to make a case that this Michigan offense will be a difficult test for the Buckeyes. We know exactly what the Wolverines want to do; run the ball, which they do nearly 60% of the time — 17th highest rate in college football.
In last year’s Big Game, RB Kalel Mullins rushed 32 times for 116 yards a TD. In 2023, Blake Corum rushed 22 times for 88 yards, and Donovan Edwards added 10 more rushes. Before that in 2022, it was Edwards who rushed 22 times for 216 and 2 TDs vs. Ohio State.
This year, the Wolverines have been wildly successful on the ground this year; 6.08 yards per rush (8th), and 45.5% success rate on the ground (19th). Outside of a mediocre rushing game vs. Oklahoma’s No. 2 rush defense (3.45 yards/rush), Michigan has averaged 232.5 yards per game on the ground.
That’s different than any team the Buckeyes have faced this year, which may pose a challenge.
However, this offense hasn’t necessarily blown over teams. Removing the 45-point outburst vs. Maryland (72nd in yards per play) and 63-point game vs. Central Michigan (5-2 in the MAC), Michigan is averaging 23.8 points per game this year.
Overall, Michigan is just 23rd in adjusted EPA/play (Ohio State is 5th) on offense, and 21st on defense (Ohio State is 5th there, too).
Michigan will only win this game by slowing it down, grinding out first downs, giving Underwood easy, short throws, and taking care of the football. And it’s likely that’s exactly what the Wolverines will try to do — win a rock fight, just like they did last year in a 13-10 win in Columbus.
Unfortunately, Michigan will be without two captains: safety Rod Moore is out, and FB Max Bredeson is unlikely to play after he was seen in a boot through this week. However, they do get RB Jordan Marshall back after he missed the Maryland game.
Ohio State vs. Michigan Picks for PrizePicks: The Game 2025
Here are the top Ohio State vs. Michigan picks for the Big Game on Saturday, November 29, 2025, on PrizePicks CFB. Win real money if your picks are right in the Ohio State vs, Michigan game on PrizePicks by simply picking players and predicting More or Less on their stats.
Michigan RB Jordan Marshall vs. Ohio State: 84.5 Rush Yards
- Marshall has rushed for 110+ yards in four straight games, averaging 127.6 yards per game in his last five.
- Michigan starting RB Justice Haynes is still out vs. Ohio State and will miss the rest of the season.
- Marshall is returning from a shoulder injury, which forced him to sit out vs. Maryland.
- The sophomore RB from Cincinnati, Ohio, has tallied 7 TDs in his last four games.
- The freshman RB is averaging 3.76 yards after contact, per PFF — 32nd among RBs with 100+ carries.
- In 2024, Michigan RB1 Kalel Mullings carried the ball 32 times vs. Ohio State, while QB David Warren passed just 16 times.
Michigan QB Bryce Underwood vs. Ohio State: 157.5 Pass Yards
- Ohio State has not allowed a QB to pass for 158+ yards in five straight games.
- The Buckeyes have not allowed a team to score 17+ points this season.
- Only one QB has passed for more than 175 yards vs. the Buckeyes this season — Illinois QB Luke Altmyer (248 yards).
- Ohio State’s defense ranks. No. 12 in EPA allowed per dropback (-0.17), but first in yards allowed per dropback (4.41).
- Underwood is averaging 25 pass attempts per game, as the Wolverines operate a run-first offense, including utilizing their QB’s legs.
- Oklahoma is right below Ohio State in the same metric (-0.16); vs. Oklahoma (in his second career start), Underwood completed just 9-of-24 passes for 142 yards in a 24-13 loss.
- Underwood’s success rate comes in at 47.8% — 30th among college QBs, per Game on Paper.
- The Wolverines may be without FB Max Bredeson, which could leave Underwood vulnerable in pass-protection.
- Underwood is averaging just 177.4 pass yards per game, with 7 TDs and 5 INTs on the season.
- TE/FB Max Bredeson is expected to sit out in this game — his pass blocking grade is best on the team, per PFF.
Ohio State QB Julian Sayin vs. Michigan: 239.5 Pass Yards
- Ohio State scored just 10 points vs. Michigan at the end of last season; since then, the Buckeyes have scored 28+ points in 13-of-15 games.
- Sayin is third in the nation with an EPA/dropback of 0.44, per Game on Paper.
- The sophomore QB has passed for 300+ yards in six games this season.
- WRs Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate — arguably the best WR duo in the country — are expected to play vs. Michigan (not officially confirmed).
- Nebraska QB Dylan Raiola is the best QB that Michigan has faced this year (4th in EPA/dropback); Raiola pass for 308 yards and 3 TDs vs. the Wolverines.
- Michigan fails to get off the field on key downs vs. the pass; the Wolverines defense ranks 63rd with a 42.4% success rate on dropbacks.
Make Ohio State vs. Michigan Picks on PrizePicks
It's been over 1,000 days since coach Ryan Day’s Ohio State Buckeyes have won vs, Michigan. But that could end on Saturday, sending the No. 1 Buckeyes to the Big Ten championship.
Meanwhile, Michigan will need to control the clock, move the chains, and keep freshman QB Bryce Underwood comfortable with successful runs vs. one of the best defenses in college football.
No matter how you think The Game plays out, you can make your Ohio State vs. Michigan predictions on PrizePicks and win real money if you’re right — from Julian Sayin passing yards to Jeremiah Smith to score a touchdown.
Ohio State vs. Michigan picks are available now on the PrizePicks CFB board,
