It’s time to get ready for the Week 1 NFL matchups, where each team will deploy their new offensive weapons and new players are set to break out or bust in NFL DFS.
This week, all eyes are on two bottom tier teams from 2024 — Jaguars and Panthers — going head-to-head in what could be a high-scoring affair; plus a classic NFC South matchup between the Michael Penix Jr.-led Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
This PrizePicks Cheat Sheet for NFL DFS is your ultimate resource for the top NFL picks for PrizePicks, projections to target, and matchup insights for the Week 1 main slate.
From must-watch games to high-upside matchups, we've got everything you need to get your picks right on PrizePicks in Week 1.
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Just go to the PrizePicks NFL board, pick your players, and predict if they’ll have More or Less than their projected stats to get in on all of the Week 1 action.
Week 1 Matchups & NFL DFS Cheat Sheet for PrizePicks
Find the top picks, matchups to target, and player predictions for NFL Week 1 below in the PrizePicks Cheat Sheet, including player picks for NFL DFS.
- Top Week 1 Games to Target
- Week 1 Matchups: Top OL/DL Mismatches
- Week 1 WR/CB Matchups to Target
- Cardinals WR Zay Jones vs. Saints CB Alontae Taylor
- Bengals WR Ja’marr Chase vs. Browns CB Greg Newsome
Top NFL Week 1 Matchups for NFL DFS
Jaguars vs. Panthers — 1 p.m. ET
The Jaguars enter the 2025 season with renewed optimism under new head coach Liam Coen, a proven offensive mind as seen in Tampa Bay. After a disappointing four-win season in 2024, QB Trevor Lawrence is looking to bounce back from an injury-riddled campaign where he threw just 11 TDs and 7 INTs — the worst statistical year of his young NFL career.
Jacksonville bolstered its weapons in the offseason by adding top-tier talents like Brian Thomas Jr. and the two-way phenom Travis Hunter, who is expected to make an impact on both offense and defense.
RB Travis Etienne returns to the spotlight after a down year. Notably, one of his only explosive outings came against these same Panthers — he went for 100+ yards rushing and receiving in that 2023 matchup.
To highlight how poor Carolina’s run defense was, Etienne only topped 100 rushing yards in one other game during the entire 2023 or 2024 seasons.
Carolina’s linebacker corps continues to be a major liability. Trevin Wallace ranked 83rd out of 86 qualified linebackers in run-stop grade, while Christian Rozeboom wasn’t much better, coming in at 69th, per PFF.
Together, they form one of the worst run-stopping duos in the league, which Etienne and the Jaguars' ground game are primed to exploit.
Panthers QB Bryce Young faced heavy criticism early last season but quietly ended the year strong. Over his final five games, Young 226 passing yards and chipped in an additional 20 rushing yards per game, often scrambling in key moments due to a lack of offensive weapons. That’s changing this year.
The Panthers invested heavily in their receiving corps, using a top-10 pick on 6-foot-5 WR Tetairoa McMillan out of Arizona.
He’ll likely draw coverage from 6-foot CB Montaric Brown, a former seventh-round pick who ranked 166th out of 166 corners in coverage last season via PFF, allowing a passer rating north of 100. This is a clear mismatch in size and ability in McMillan’s debut.
Despite their struggles in the win column, Carolina’s offensive line is quietly one of the better units in the NFL. RT Taylor Moton ranked inside the top 20 in pass-blocking last year, allowing just one sack and two QB hits all season. RG Robert Hunt was equally impressive, surrendering only eight QB hits over nearly 1,000 snaps.
PrizePicks NFL Week 1 Picks: Travis Etienne 39.5 Rush Yards / Tetairoa McMillan 65.5 Receiving Yards / Bryce Young 210.5 Pass Yards
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Buccaneers vs. Falcons — 1:05 p.m. ET
A pivotal Week 1 NFC South showdown puts the Buccaneers in Atlanta to take on the Falcons.
Atlanta finally hands the keys to the offense over to first-round QB Michael Penix Jr., the gunslinger out of Washington. Penix now gets a full season to build chemistry with WR1 Drake London, who ranked top 10 last season in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns.
Last season, the Falcons went 2-0 against Tampa Bay, scoring 30+ points in each contest. Offensively, they averaged nearly 23 points per game across the season.
To ease Penix into the NFL, the Falcons could follow a similar passing progression as seen in the preseason: 27, 35, and 38 pass attempts in his last three outings, each resulting in increased yardage.
Tampa Bay has historically struggled to contain TE Kyle Pitts. In his last two games against the Bucs, Pitts recorded two of the best performances of his career, racking up 91 and 88 receiving yards on 11 total receptions.
Despite being one of the league’s best linebackers, Lavonte David allowed a passer rating north of 100 in coverage last year. He’ll now be paired with SirVocea Dennis, a 2023 fifth-round pick making his first real contribution, putting added pressure on a shaky linebacker group.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield returns as the NFL's true gunslinger. He finished second in passing TDs (41) and 3rd in pass yards (4,500) last season. In his final matchup against the Falcons in 2024, Mayfield lit them up for 330 yards, his third-highest total of the season.
Atlanta's biggest defensive issue last year was generating pressure. EDGE Leonard Floyd only produced 26 QB hurries and 44 total pressures. They hope to fix that with explosive first-round rookie Jalon Walker out of Georgia, who brings major upside.
With injuries plaguing Tampa Bay’s receiving corps, WR Mike Evans has re-established himself as Mayfield’s go-to target. In their last matchup against Atlanta, Evans caught two TDs and posted 13 total targets. He closed the season with three near-100-yard performances.
With rookie WR Jalen McMillan on IR and new Ohio State rookie Emeka Egbuka lining up opposite, Evans is in line for a heavy target share once again, especially given his prior dominance against this Falcons secondary.
PrizePicks NFL Week 1 Picks: Mike Evans 5.5 Receptions / Kyle Pitts 39.5 Receiving Yards / Baker Mayfield 242.5 Pass Yards
Week 1 Matchups: Ol/DL Mismatches
Raiders OL vs. Patriots DL
The Las Vegas Raiders could quietly feature one of the NFL’s strongest offensive lines this season. LT Colton Miller ranked 13th out of 81 tackles last year, while left guard Dylon Parham placed 18th among 136 guards and only allowed two quarterback hits.
Center Jordan Meredith was especially impressive, finishing 5th out of 77 centers, per PFF, and giving up zero sacks across more than 390 offensive snaps.
On the other side, the Patriots' defensive front lacks proven production. Christian Barmore, a second-round pick in 2021, has yet to live up to expectations. He’s joined by seventh-rounder Khyiris Tonga from BYU, who has yet to establish any consistent threat inside.
The edge presence is also underwhelming: Harold Landry III ranked 106th out of 109 defensive ends last season via PFF and recorded just 15 quarterback hurries, ranking 78th league-wide. His partner, Keion White, led the team in sacks but totaled only five, failing to crack the top 40 in NFL pass rushers.
Steelers DL vs. Jets OL
The Steelers return what might be the league’s best defensive line. TJ Watt remains one of the most disruptive edge rushers in football; last season, he ranked top 10 in total sacks with 12 and inside the top 25 in QB hits with 53.
Cameron Heyward — who uncertain to play amid a contract dispute — anchors the interior and finished second among 118 defensive linemen, racking up 10 sacks (4th most among DTs) and 12 QB hits (8th). EDGE Alex Highsmith also continues to rise, finishing 8th out of 109 edge defenders, per PFF, and tallying six sacks and 33 pressures, ranking well inside the top 25.
The New York Jets’ offensive line, however, is filled with inexperience. Left tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu, a first-round pick in 2024, enters the league with only 372 career pass-blocking reps. He committed seven penalties, allowed one sack, and gave up 23 total pressures all concerning numbers. Center Josh Myers ranked 38th out of 40 NFL centers via PFF and allowed 29 pressures on 500 pass-block snaps, making him one of the lowest-graded players at his position. On the right side, they’ll start another rookie in Armand Membou from Missouri, adding even more uncertainty to a shaky unit.
WR vs. CB Matchups
Cardinals WR Zay Jones / Michael Wilson vs. Saints CB Alontae Taylor
Saints slot CB Alontae Taylor was statistically the worst coverage cornerback in the NFL last season. He ranked 116th out of 116 corners and allowed a passer rating over 117 along with 12 yards per reception.
This sets up a great opportunity for Cardinals’ new weapon Zay Jones, who should play some snaps out of the slot for the Ravens (19% of snaps out of slot in 2024). Michael Wilson will also find himself with a role out of the slot, as he played 35% of his pass snaps out of the slot in 2024.
How the Cardinals slot WR share will shake out is a bit of a question mark, but whoever we see lining up against Taylor could have a leg up.
Bengals WR Ja’marr Chase vs. Browns CB Greg Newsome
Browns CB Greg Newsome had the worst season of his career. The former first-round pick ranked 99th out of 116 corners, allowing a 120+ passer rating and more than 15 yards per reception. He surrendered 33 total receptions and now faces the daunting task of lining up against Ja’Marr Chase, who he has faced before.
Chase led the league last season in receiving yards, receptions, and touchdowns — topping 1,700 yards and averaging 13.4 yards per catch. If Newsome's 2024 form carries into this season, this could be one of the biggest mismatches of the week.
Lock in for Week 1 NFL DFS on PrizePicks
Week 1 is finally here, bringing us our first Sunday packed with exciting NFL matchups and divisional games. Use the PrizePicks NFL Cheat Sheet to sharpen your takes and build out your winning Lineups for Sunday.
PrizePicks is the simplest way to win real money with your NFL predictions all season long. Pull up the PrizePicks NFL board, pick at least two players, prediction More or Less on their projections — like yards or receptions — and win real money when you’re right.
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