Every state thinks it knows sports. But the data can prove it.
Hundreds of millions of picks on PrizePicks over the past year revealed which states actually know their sports — and the answers aren't always obvious.
Does Minnesota's love for hockey translate to smarter picks? Do Dodger fans know baseball, or is their team just running hot? Does Indiana — the home of basketball — really know their sport?
We used PrizePicks picks data to rank the smartest sports states in America by their pick win rate across the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL in daily fantasy sports.
On PrizePicks, you pick More or Less on two or more players' projected stats, and win if your picks are correct.
What states proved they know ball this year? Let’s dig into the rankings for each major sports league to find what states were the smartest in 2025-26.
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The States Making The Smartest Sports Picks, According to PrizePicks
Before diving into the numbers of the states making the smartest sport picks, here’s how we built the rankings.
After pulling the picks data over the last year, we corrected for sample size differences by applying a statistical adjustment that pulls small-state win rates toward the national average.
We applied a Bayesian adjustment to pull small-state win rates toward the national average — so a state with 100,000 picks doesn't outrank one with tens of millions on a lucky run.
The margin between a “winning” state and “losing” one is relatively small — less than 1.5 percent across the sports we analyzed.
Throughout this article, note that win rate = the percentage of individual picks that were correct, unless otherwise noted.
With that said, check out the smartest states with the highest win rates from the past year of sports picks, according to PrizePicks data.
5 States with the Highest Sports Pick Win Rates on PrizePicks
Here are the five states with the highest Bayesian-adjusted win rates on single picks from February 24, 2025, to February 24, 2026, for picks on PrizePicks.
1. Illinois
2. Indiana
3. Kansas
T-4. Florida
T-4. Tennessee
The Midwest did most of the heavy lifting, with Illinois, Indiana, and Kansas boasting the highest adjusted win rates for player picks on PrizePicks, followed by Florida and Tennessee in the South.
In short, Illinois and Indiana found most of their success thanks to basketball and baseball, while Kansas thrived in NFL and MLB picks. Florida and Tennessee showcased high success across several sports, but they do not match some of the dominant win rates from Illinois and Indiana.
Below, we’ll have in-depth looks at the highest win rates for the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL picks.
Among the top five highest win rates, Florida had the highest market share (or total volume of picks), the fourth-highest volume among all 32 states. For context, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, and Tennessee all finished far behind Florida’s total market share.
Hitting on one pick is good, but you need at least two picks to cash a winning Lineup on PrizePicks. That’s where Lineup win rate comes in.
5 States with Highest Lineup Win Rates on PrizePicks
Although some of these states didn’t get the most picks right, they did cash the highest rate of Lineups, based on adjustments.
These states don't just get individual picks right — they build Lineups that cash on PrizePicks.
- California
- Utah
- Illinois
- Minnesota
- Nebraska
California tops the charts as the state cashing the highest adjusted percentage of Lineups on PrizePicks. The Golden State ranked top three in NBA, MLB, and NHL win rates, including leading all states in NHL win rate.
Utah comes in second with adjusted win-rate, and also has the third-highest win rate pre- adjustments — the only state that placed over 1 million Lineups to hit that mark. Utah cashed the highest percentage of Lineups in NBA, and ranked second in NHL.
Interestingly, Utah had the third-lowest pick win rate in NFL, but ranked fifth-highest in Lineup win rate. This suggests Utah users favor smaller Lineups — fewer picks per entry, higher implied probability of cashing.
Illinois led the United States in NFL ball knowledge, with the highest adjusted win rate across all NFL Lineups. Minnesota’s strong suit was MLB (first) and NBA (third).
5 States with Lowest Pick Win Rates on PrizePicks
Although the margins are less than 2%, not all states fell on the winning end of the rankings. These six states stand out with the five lowest win rates, including a tie for the fifth-lowest win rate.
1. South Carolina
2. Georgia
3. Arkansas
4. Wisconsin
T-5. Rhode Island
T-5. Missouri
Arkansas, Wisconsin, and Missouri all posted similar market shares to the top five highest win rates — so it’s not a sample size issue.
Rhode Island's low volume makes its bottom-five finish statistically notable, as most low-volume states are among the top performers in raw win rate.
High volumes may have harmed South Carolina’s and Georgia’s win rates. In fact, Georgia was third in overall pick volume, while South Carolina ranked fifth in the category.
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Which State Has the Best NFL Pick Win Rate? North Carolina Leads
Now, let’s move our attention to the highest win rates on picks by leagues, beginning with the country’s most popular sports league: the NFL. Here are the top five states in NFL ball knowledge:
1. North Carolina
2. New Mexico
3. Florida
4. Kansas
T-5. Tennessee
T-5. California
Looking for region trends by sport can be one of the most interesting tidbits from this data. However, we aren’t getting that from the NFL. The top five NFL states span the full map, with no regional pattern.
California, Florida, and North Carolina had the highest NFL market share of all picks among the six mentioned states.
Despite not making it on the list for picks, Illinois was No. 1 in Lineup win rate, followed by Wisconsin and Indiana. That means they know how to build Lineups that win — not just get a few picks right.
South Carolina, Georgia, Utah, Minnesota, and Texas finished with the five lowest NFL picks win rates on PrizePicks, with Georgia ranked last in adjusted Lineup win rate.
Smartest States for NBA Picks: Indiana, Illinois Up Top
Unlike the NFL, the NBA picks rankings by state on PrizePicks featured a specific region for the top win rates.
1. Indiana
2. Illinois
T-3. Florida
T-3. Tennessee
5. Kentucky
Most of these states go hand-in-hand with major basketball programs, whether it’s the NBA or college basketball. For example, Indiana has always been known as a basketball state, led by the Indiana Hoosiers, Purdue Boilermakers, and Indiana Pacers.
Illinois features the Chicago Bulls, while Florida certainly has a winning culture between the Miami Heat and Florida Gators. Tennessee and Kentucky have diehard fan bases for the Tennessee Volunteers, Kentucky Wildcats, and Louisville Cardinals.
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However, when it came to Lineups, Utah and California led the way in adjusted Lineup win rate.
In SEC country, South Carolina, Georgia, and Arkansas formed the bottom three win rates for their NBA picks. In terms of Lineups, you can add Missouri to the list, which ranked last out of the 32 eligible states.
Smartest States for MLB Picks: Florida Tops the Rankings
The smartest states in the NFL and NBA continued to thrive with their MLB picks. Here are the top five states for MLB picks:
1. Florida
2. Illinois
3. Indiana
4. California
T-5. Tennessee
T-5. Kansas
Despite tying in the top five win rate rankings across other categories, among 32 states, Florida boasts the top win rate on their picks for two major sports, including MLB.
As one of seven states with two MLB teams — the Tampa Bay Rays and Miami Marlins, Florida had the fourth-highest market share for MLB picks. For reference, Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, and Kansas finished far behind Florida in volume.
Despite that, Florida may have been swinging for the fences with their Lineups, ranking just 22nd in adjusted Lineup win rate; Minnesota, Oregon, and California were tops in that category.
However, California led MLB market share across all states, as it’s built a reputation as a baseball state, with its year-round warm weather and massive Dodger fanbase.
Smartest States for NHL Picks: Florida's Hockey Boom Leads the Rankings
Rounding out the four major league sports, let’s look at the best states for NHL picks.
1. Florida
2. Minnesota
3. New Hampshire
T-4. District of Columbia
T-4. Tennessee
Florida makes its second appearance as the top winner for a sport. Florida's hockey culture has exploded in recent years — the Panthers have back-to-back Stanley Cups, and the Lightning went back-to-back in 2020 and 2021. Four titles in five years has a way of sharpening fan knowledge.
The Sunshine State’s No. 1 NHL pick win rate, paired with the fourth-highest market share for NHL picks, suggests Florida may have become a hockey state in the post-LeBron James era.
Minnesota lived up to its name as a hockey state, finishing second in pick win rate with the sixth-highest volume.
Excluding Florida, the remaining top five winners are no strangers to a brutal winter — sitting in line with hockey stereotypes.
However, the highest percentage of winning NHL Lineups came from California – and by a wide margin, even with a higher market share than any other state. Texas also knows hockey, ranking fourth in overall Lineup win rate.
Make Your Sports Picks on PrizePicks
Illinois and Indiana have the ultimate bragging rights as the big winners among 32 states for picks on PrizePicks Player Picks. Florida and Tennessee held their own, too, finishing among the top five win rates for all four major professional sports leagues.
From NBA to NFL to MLB and more, the possibilities are endless on PrizePicks. With Player Picks, simply pick More or Less on two or more players' projected stats across sports on the board, and earn money if you're right.
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