The Los Angeles Lakers (50-27) and the Dallas Mavericks (24-53) will be forever linked by a league-shifting trade, but Lakers F Luka Doncic will not suit up against his former team due to a hamstring injury.
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, the Lakers are 3.5-point favorites on the spread for the fourth and final head-to-head meeting of the season. The Mavericks are still searching for their first win over Los Angeles this season.
Lakers vs. Mavericks tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET tonight, live on NBC and Peacock.
Below, we’ll break down our Lakers vs. Mavericks prediction and Sunday NBA picks for PrizePicks. Use PrizePicks NBA to make picks on player projections and win real money if you’re right.
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Lakers vs. Mavericks Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
A promising late-season run by the Los Angeles Lakers came to a screeching halt when G Luka Doncic came up limping in the third quarter of their last game against OKC. It’s now being reported that Luka has suffered a grade 2 hamstring strain, with an average time to return of five weeks.
With this being the same hamstring Luka injured earlier this season, any potential return this season could be questioned, even if the Lakers were to win one playoff round without him. If Luka cannot return, the Lakers’ season is all but finished. Los Angeles sits half a game above the Denver Nuggets for the No. 3 seed in the West, but that could now fall out of its grasp.
The Dallas Mavericks were mostly expected to take a step back, but few predicted the seventh-worst record in the NBA. Considering Mavericks PG Kyrie Irving's and PF/C Anthony Davis' absences early in the season, this may have been unavoidable.
The future could be bright, though, primarily thanks to F Cooper Flagg flashing his All-NBA and MVP-level upside. With a bit of luck in the NBA Lottery, the Mavs may be able to pair him with another dynamic young talent, given the depth of this year’s NBA draft.
Lakers vs. Mavericks Spread, Over/Under
The Lakers enter Sunday’s game as 3.5-point road favorites, returning a 1.78x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Mavericks are home underdogs with a 2x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Los Angeles Lakers -3.5 (2.12x payout)
- Over/Under: 232.5 (1.78x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Lakers 1.78x | Mavericks 2x
Team Picks payouts are live as of writing and are subject to change.
Lakers vs. Mavericks Injury Report
Let’s dive into the full Lakers vs. Mavericks injury report for Sunday, via NBA.com.
Lakers Injury Report
- G Marcus Smart (ankle): OUT
- PG Luka Doncic (hamstring): OUT
- SG Austin Reaves (oblique): OUT
- PF Jarred Vanderbilt (calf): Questionable
Mavericks Injury Report
- PF Marvin Bagley III (shoulder): Probable
- PF Tyler Smith (back): Questionable
- SF Caleb Martin (foot): OUT
Lakers vs. Mavericks Prediction on Spread – 4/5/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Lakers vs. Mavericks prediction on the spread for Sunday, April 5, on PrizePicks.
- We have to take many of the Lakers' strong against-the-spread (ATS) trends this season with a grain of salt tonight, given their injury situation.
- The Mavericks' struggles are still consistent, going 33-44-0 (42.9%) ATS, the third-worst record in the NBA.
- Despite Flagg’s heroics, the Mavericks have played terrible basketball of late, ranking 22nd in net rating over the last 10 games (-8.7), a full 11.5 points worse than the Lakers over that same span, per NBA Advanced Stats.
- The Lakers are 3-0 straight up and ATS vs. Dallas this season.
- Ranked as the 10th-worst defensive rating (115.1), that spells trouble for the Mavericks vs. a Lakers’ offense that is second in effective field goal percentage (57.2%) and true shooting percentage (60.9%).
Lakers vs. Mavericks Picks for PrizePicks Today: 4/5/26
Here are two of the top Lakers vs. Mavericks to consider for Sunday, April 5, on PrizePicks. Today’s NBA picks for PrizePicks are headlined by Lakers F LeBron James and Mavericks F Cooper Flagg.
Lakers F LeBron James vs. Mavericks Projection: 43.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- LeBron could be set to absorb a ton of offensive work without Reaves and Doncic in the lineup.
- His usage rate jumps from 27.1% to 35.5% without those two on the court.
- Additionally, his assist percentage rises from 31.4 to 47.5%, suggesting he is a major piece of the Lakers offense, via Add More Funds.
- This is a pace-up matchup for LeBron and the Lakers, who rank 22nd in the league in pace, going against the Mavericks (fourth).
- The Mavericks' defense gives up the second-most rebounds (46.7) and fourth-most assists (28.4) per game.
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Mavericks F Cooper Flagg vs. Lakers Projection: 37.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Flagg is making a late-season push for Rookie of the Year, but this projection may be too high with his average of 31.9 points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) per game.
- In his two matchups vs. Los Angeles this season, he has gone for just 29 and 31 PRA.
- This is a pace-down matchup for the Mavs, who are top five in pace, against the Lakers (22nd).
- Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves are two of the worst defenders on the Lakers. Without them in the lineup, the Lakers' defense could drastically improve compared to the unit's season-long numbers.
- In fact, without Luka and Reaves on the court, the Lakers’ defensive rating drops from 116.1 to 114.0, and their defensive true-shooting percentage drops from 57.8 to 57.3%, according to databallr.
Make Lakers vs. Mavericks Picks on PrizePicks
Can the Mavs crack the season series scoreboard vs. a Lakers team that is decimated by injuries? Lakers vs. Mavericks picks aren’t the only way hoops fans can get in on the daily NBA action.
You can make your Lakers vs. Mavericks picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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