The king of the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest is back. 15-time contest champion Joey Chestnut will return to take back his crown at the 2025 Hot Dog Eating Contest after his one year ban in 2024 and a Netflix special where he set a new record.
Below, we’ll breakdown Joey Chestnut’s projections for hot dogs eaten and his history in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. According to PrizePicks projections, no other competitor is expected to finish within 20 hot dogs eaten of Chestnut, who is projected to eat 71.25.
On PrizePicks, you can make Hot Dog Eating Contest predictions on competitors to eat More or Less than their hot dogs eaten projections to win real money. With the Joey Chestnut free pick — one hot dog eaten = one win — don’t miss your shot to get in on the glizzy action.
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Joey Chestnut Projection: 71.25 Hot Dogs Eaten
Joey Chestnut is projected to eat 71.25 hot dogs in the 2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, according to PrizePicks.
The projection is near his average over the last 10 years — 71.6 hot dogs, including the 83 that wasn’t at Nathan’s. If you remove the Netflix special, Chestnut is averaging 69.2 hot dogs eaten per contest over his last nine.
It’s worth noting that Patrick Bertoletti’s projection is second highest, at 51.25 hot dogs eaten, which means Chestnut is projected to eat 20 more than the second-best Hot Dog Contest Competitor.
Joey Chestnut Free Pick on PrizePicks
It’s time to lock in on the 2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. This year, PrizePicks is giving out a Joey Chestnut free pick for the July 4 event. If Chestnut eats one hot dog, he'll cash his free pick — a near guarantee.
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Joey Chestnut Hot Dog Contest Results, Year-by-Year
Here are Joey Chestnut’s results in Nathan’s Hot Dog Contest in every contest since 2005 until his one-year ban in 2024.
- 2005: 32 hot dogs (3rd)
- 2006: 52 hot dogs (2nd)
- 2007: 66 hot dogs (1st)
- 2008: 59 hot dogs (T-1st)
- 2009: 68 hot dogs (1st)
- 2010: 54 hot dogs (1st)
- 2011: 62 hot dogs (1st)
- 2012: 68 hot dogs (1st)
- 2013: 69 hot dogs (1st)
- 2014: 61 hot dogs (1st)
- 2015: 60 hot dogs (2nd) – def. by Matt Stonie (62)
- 2016: 70 hot dogs (1st) – Stonie ate 53
- 2017: 72 hot dogs (1st)
- 2018: 74 hot dogs (1st)
- 2019: 71 hot dogs (1st)
- 2020: 75 hot dogs (1st)
- 2021: 76 hot dogs (1st)
- 2022: 63 hot dogs (1st) – contest interrupted by a protestor, who Chestnut casually put in a chokehold in an iconic Hot Dog Contest moment
- 2023: 62 hot dogs (1st)
- 2024: 83 hot dogs – in Netflix’s Chestnut vs. Kobayashi: Unfinished Beef special. Kobayashi finished 66. Chestnut was banned from participating in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest in this year.
Joey Chestnut is Back in the Hot Dog Eating Contest
Joey Chestnut is back on the Fourth of July stage, and this time, it’s personal. After a year away from Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, the 15-time champ is returning with one goal: remind everyone why he’s the glizzy GOAT.
With a PrizePicks projection of 71.25 hot dogs eaten, Chestnut is projected to dominate the field — just like he has nearly every year since 2007. With the Chestnut free pick on PrizePicks, it’s even easier to cash in on July 4 action this year.
Whether you’re tuning in for the chaos, the competition, or the pure American spectacle, PrizePicks makes it easy to get in on the action. Make your picks for the Hot Dog Eating Contest — and don’t forget the Chestnut free pick that cashes if he eats just one.
