Falcons vs. Commanders: Sunday Night Football Picks & Predictions

Playoff hopes are on the line as the Atlanta Falcons and rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. take on top Rookie of the Year candidate Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders on Sunday Night Football tonight.

Below, we’ve got the top Sunday Night Football picks for Falcons vs. Commanders for NFL DFS and PrizePicks. 

PrizePicks makes it simple to turn your NFL predictions into cash. Just choose "more" or "less" on player stats for Sunday Night Football, and win real money if your picks hit.

Let’s get into our expert Sunday Night Football picks for Falcons vs. Commanders.

‍

Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Picks for Falcons vs. Commanders

Here are the top Sunday Night Football picks for Falcons vs. Commanders on 

• Commanders QB Jayden Daniels 14.5 yards Longest Rush — More
• Commanders K Zane Gonzalez 1.5 FGs Made — Less
• TD Scorer Pick: Commanders WR Terry McLaurin (Demon)
• Goblin Pick: Falcons QB Michael Penix 0.5 Pass TDs — More
• SNF Prediction: Commanders 27, Falcons 21

Sunday Night Football: Falcons vs. Commanders Preview

Date: Sunday, December 29, 2024

Time: 8:20 p.m. ET 

Location: Northwest Stadium, Landover, Md.

Where to Watch: NBC

The Atlanta Falcons currently have a 56% chance of making the NFL Playoffs heading into Sunday in Week 17. With a loss, here their chances plummet to 40%, but a win provides a 86% chance to make it. 

This game is really make or break for Atlanta, as the Falcons look to end their season strong. In just his second NFL start, the Falcons may get a better look at their potential franchise quarterback, Michael Penix Jr., as he had a cakewalk against the Giants in his first start.
The Washington Commanders are nearly locked into a playoff spot, with a 94% chance of going to the NFL Playoffs. A loss in this game would drop their chances to 84%, but a victory would boost their odds to 99%. This makes the game critical for Washington, as the Commanders look to lock in their playoff spot and position themselves strongly for the final stretch of the season.

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels is the frontrunner for Offensive Rookie of the Year, with 3,303 passing yards and 22 passing touchdowns, plus another 727 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground. His performance in a comeback win against the Eagles was impressive —  258 passing yards, 5 touchdowns, and 75+ rushing yards. This game against the Falcons is another chance to further solidify his claim to the Rookie of the Year award.

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels 14.5 yards Longest Rush — More

Jayden Daniels has been a powerhouse in the ground game this season, racking up 737 rushing yards and averaging over 49 yards per game. Among quarterbacks, he ranks second in rushing yards, trailing only MVP contender Lamar Jackson.

In his last five games, Daniels has averaged 19 yards on his longest runs, surpassing 14.5 yards in three of those contests. He also averages an impressive 3.77 yards after contact per attempt, consistently making defenders miss. Expect him to maintain this level of performance and run in a game that has huge stakes.

Commanders K Zane Gonzalez 1.5 FGs Made — Less

Commanders starting kicker Austin Seibert is on injured reserve with a groin injury. Zane Gonzalez has been his replacement, though he is averaging just 0.75 field goals over the four-game stint in Seibert’s stead. Last week against the Eagles, Gonzalez did not even attempt a field goal; in the week previous against the Titans, he missed both opportunities.

While the Falcons rank seventh in field goals allowed per game at 1.93, they also are giving up the second most passing touchdowns with 1.87 allowed per game. The Falcons are also one of the worst red zone teams in the NFL, giving up a touchdown on 62% of opponent red-zone possessions.

It’s evident that Washington head coach Dan Quinn places more trust in QB Jayden Daniels than in his backup kicker. With the Commanders boasting the second-highest fourth-down conversion rate at 84.21%, it’s reasonable to expect them to remain confident in their ability to keep converting, especially in such a key game.

TD Scorer Pick: Commanders WR Terry McLaurin (Demon)

As mentioned earlier, the Falcons allow the second-most passing touchdowns in the league, averaging 1.87 per game.

Commanders WR Terry McLaurin enters Week 17 on a hot streak, having scored 12 touchdowns over the past 15 weeks. In just the last four weeks, he’s found the end zone six times. McLaurin is on a roll, and he’s poised to keep it going against the Atlanta Falcons, a team that has consistently struggled to defend against wide receivers.

Averaging nearly eight targets per game over the past four weeks, McLaurin is clearly Daniels' WR1 and favorite target. With Daniels' dynamic ability as a runner, cornerbacks can only hold up for so long before receivers like McLaurin find opportunities to get open.

Falcons QB Michael Penix 0.5 Pass TDs — More (Goblin)

During Michael Penix Jr.’s final two seasons at Washington, he averaged nearly 2.4 passing touchdowns per game, amassing 37 total passing touchdowns across 28 games.

In his first start against the Giants, Penix faced some struggles, finishing without a touchdown and throwing an interception. However, he showed flashes of potential. The Commanders rank ninth in passing touchdowns allowed per game, giving up an average of 1.6.

As Penix continues to develop chemistry with his talented arsenal of targets — including Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney, and Bijan Robinson — he’ll improve his ability to connect with them downfield and in the end zone.

Sunday Night Football Prediction: Commanders 27, Falcons 21

This is a must-win game for the Falcons, but they’re likely to come up short as the Commanders extend their dominance and lock up a playoff spot. Playing at home gives Washington the edge they need to secure the victory.

While the Falcons hold an 18-10-1 series lead all-time, the Commanders are an emerging force with rookie QB Jayden Daniels. A loss for Atlanta would deal a blow to their NFL Playoffs hopes, but it won’t entirely eliminate them from contention.
With two exciting rookie quarterbacks, can either of these teams make a playoff run and secure a chance to reach the Super Bowl? We’ll get a good look at both sides on Sunday Night Football tonight.

‍

Build Your Sunday Night Football DFS Lineup on PrizePicks

With two intriguing rookie quarterbacks leading the way on Sunday Night Football, the Falcons and Commanders aim to secure a win in Week 17. Use the picks above to build your NFL DFS Lineup for Sunday Night Football between the Falcons and Commanders.

Whether you’re backing the Falcons or the Commanders in this game, both teams are looking to secure a victory in a must-win as they’re both in the playoff hunt. Sunday night is your opportunity to join the action and cash in on PrizePicks. 

It’s the easiest way to add real-money stakes to Sunday Night Football here on PrizePicks. Simply select "more" or "less" on player stats, set your lineup, and play for your chance to win big.