Following the NFL’s first game in France, the 1:00 p.m. ET slot has seven games ahead on Sunday, October 25. Following back-to-back divisional games, the Houston Texans (2-4) play host to the New York Giants (3-2-1).
Despite a worse record, the Texans are a notable 10.5-point favorite for the spread on PrizePicks. Houston’s 0-4 start was one of the biggest surprises in the early going, but it comes off back-to-back wins, including last week’s 34-31 dub over the Jaguars.
The Giants, meanwhile, began 3-1 but were plagued by injuries. New York tied vs. the Commanders in Week 5 (27-27), followed by a failed comeback attempt in a 34-27 loss vs. the Saints last week.
Below, we’ll break down the matchup in our Giants vs. Texans prediction, followed by player projections for PrizePicks for Week 7.
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Giants vs. Texans Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, October 25
Despite a 2-4 start, the Texans have been favored in four of their last five games. That continues in Week 7, with Houston in its largest favored role of the season at 10.5 points for the spread.
Here are the full payouts for the Giants vs. Texans on PrizePicks, including winner payouts, the spread, and the over/under. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Make your Giants vs. Texans prediction on the over/under on PrizePicks.
Following an exciting 3-1 start to the season, the Giants are quickly unraveling. Season-ending injuries to QB Jaxson Dart and EDGE Brian Burns were brutal blows, and New York continues to deal with injuries for Week 7.
On defense, CB Greg Newsome II (concussion) and LB Tremaine Edmonds (shoulder) are out, while S Jevon Holland (concussion) and S Tyler Nubin (neck) are questionable. Plus, starting OT Jermaine Eluemunor (calf) is questionable.
If the Giants are short-handed yet again, that’s only making the task even more difficult for QB J.J. McCarthy in his first start of the season. With the G-Men trailing 34-10 vs. the Saints last week, McCarthy replaced QB Jameis Winston and nearly marched New York all the way back in a 34-27 final.
Alongside 243 passing yards, 11.6 yards per passing attempt, 1 passing TD, and 1 INT, McCarthy’s 61.9% success rate was the highest among QBs in Week 6, per RBSDM. New York may have found something with the former first-round pick, and he’s supported by quality targets in WR Malik Nabers and TE Isaiah Likely.
The Giants have also been altering the workload in the backfield. RB Cam Skattebo posted snap shares above 58.0% in the first five games, and that fell to 7.8% last week. RB Devin Singletary (40.3%) and RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. (37.7%) led in snaps.
New York is tasked with facing one of the league’s most talented defenses. But the Texans remain a far cry from last season’s unit, allowing 23.8 points per game (20th). However, a 42.0% success rate allowed (10th) still points to positive regression.
Houston’s secondary — which has given up 7.3 yards per passing attempt (17th) — is likely the Giants’ angle for success — especially with Texans S Reed Blankenship (concussion/hand) and NB Jalen Pitre (shoulder) out today.
They’re also dealing with injuries on offense, as RB David Montgomery (groin) is set to miss his second straight game. The passing attack may keep improving, as WR Tank Dell is expected to play in his first game since a devastating knee injury in December of 2024. Plus, newly acquired WR Marvin Harrison Jr. should see more snaps in his second game as a Texan.
Now that availability is laid out for each squad, let’s get into our Giants vs. Texans prediction.
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Giants vs. Texans Prediction on Over/Under – 10/25/26
Perhaps the most important injury to watch is Giants right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor. He’s allowing only 3 pressures over 161 pass block reps this season, via Pro Football Focus.
Houston still has one of the most feared pass-rushing duos in EDGE Will Anderson Jr. (10 sacks, 33 pressures) and EDGE Danielle Hunter (4 sacks, 27 pressures). If McCarthy has time to pass, this Texans secondary is vulnerable — especially with Nabers and Likely more than capable of exposing the weakness.
McCarthy was one of the most successful QBs across the NFL in one quarter vs. the Saints in Week 6, and Houston yields 0.096 dropback EPA (21st). In the last three games, New York posted 30.0 PPG.
On the other side of the ball, the Texans sport 24.0 PPG (14th), 5.7 yards per play (11th), and a 44.1% success rate (13th). QB C.J. Stroud has been terrific, backed by a 50.4% success rate (eighth), a 3.9% completion percentage over expectation (10th), and 9.2 air yards per attempt (fifth).
Houston compiled 30.0 PPG in its previous three, and Stroud boasts a 55.6% success rate (second) and 0.392 adjusted EPA per play (second) in that split.
As mentioned, the Giants have a beat-up secondary, and they allow 5.0 yards per carry (31st). The Texans’ 3.6 YPC (29th) has been perhaps the team’s biggest weakness, but they tallied 114 rushing yards and 4.6 YPC in RB Woody Marks’ first game as the starter last week.
The over is 2-1 in Houston’s last three, while it’s 4-2 on the season for New York.
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Giants vs. Texans Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 10/25/26
Here are the top Giants vs. Texans picks to target on Sunday, October 25. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include WR Malik Nabers and WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
Giants WR Malik Nabers vs. Texans: 68.5 Receiving Yards
- It often takes time for a player to find their footing following a significant injury, and we’ve seen just that with Nabers.
- After logging 32.0 receiving yards per game in his three games, Nabers is up to a whopping 132.7 yards per contest in his last three.
- Since Week 5, the former LSU Tiger boasts an absurd 17.5 targets per game and a 37.1% target share.
- Even with that volume, he’s still getting targets downfield, proven by a 41.9% air yards share and 10.8 average depth of target (aDOT) in the two-game split.
- The change at QB had minimal impact on Nabers last week, as he finished with 15 targets, 12 receptions, and 165 receiving yards.
Add Malik Nabers to your PrizePicks lineup.
Texans WR Marvin Harrison Jr. vs. Giants: 2.5 Receptions
- In his first game since landing in Houston via trade, Harrison posted 4 targets, 3 catches, and 34 receiving yards.
- While that’s another underwhelming stat line for the former No. 4 pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, he was featured for only 10 pass snaps and had a 19.0% snap share.
- With another week under his belt, more snaps should be ahead on Sunday, and Harrison’s 40.0% target per route run rate was very encouraging.
- Over his first four games in Arizona, Harrison didn’t reach 1.00 yards per route run in one game. He posted 3.78 yards per route run in his first game as a Texan.
- Houston’s 62.23% pass play rate (seventh) means there’s plenty of catches to go around, and the Texans will likely keep looking to get the ball to Harrison — especially when they traded a second-round pick for the wideout.
Pick Marvin Harrison Jr. + Texans to win on PrizePicks!
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Despite major season-ending injuries, the Giants still sit at 3-2-1 and are in first place in a weak NFC East. New York looks to keep its head above water when it travels to battle the Texans, who suddenly have a pulse following back-to-back wins.
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