One of the top games on the Thursday night college football slate involves a pair of American Conference teams seeking a 2-0 start in league play, with the Tulane Green Wave (4-1) returning home after consecutive road games to host the East Carolina Pirates (3-2).
Let’s dive into this East Carolina vs. Tulane prediction for this showdown in the American, kicking off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN tonight.
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East Carolina vs. Tulane Prediction, Preview for Week 7
The Pirates have won three of their last four games since falling to North Carolina State in the season opener. ECU has allowed a total of 9 points in its three victories, capped off by a 28-6 blowout of Army on September 25.
Tulane has picked up a pair of solid non-conference home wins over Northwestern and Duke. The Green Wave bounced back from its lone loss at Ole Miss to rout Tulsa 31-14 on September 27 for its first conference victory.
East Carolina Pirates
- ECU has performed considerably better in the passing game compared to their work on the ground. The Pirates rank 28th in the country in EPA/Pass, but sit 119th in EPA/Rush.
- Since rushing for 30 yards on 29 carries against N.C. State in the season opener, the Pirates are averaging 168.7 yards per game on the ground.
- Tulane ranks 95th in the nation in defensive EPA/Rush. That marks the third team that ECU will face this season which ranks 75th or worse in this category.
Tulane Green Wave
- The Green Wave starts scoring drives in favorable spots. In fact, Tulane ranks first in the country in starting field position, averaging at their own 40-yard line.
- Although Tulane has scored more than 31 points in three of the past four games, their passing game, led by QB Jake Retzlaff, hasn't clicked. The senior hasn’t thrown a TD pass in three consecutive games and has completed less than 58% of his pass attempts on four occasions.
- The passing EPA ranks 88th in the country and their passing success rate sits at 103rd. The only two teams from the American Conference that rank lower than Tulane in passing success rate are UTSA and Army.
East Carolina vs. Tulane Picks & CFB DFS
East Carolina QB Katin Houser vs. Tulane Projection: 255.5 Passing Yards
- Houser’s passing yardage output has declined in each of the first five games. He torched N.C. State for 366 yards in the opener, but is coming off a 251-yard performance in the recent victory over Army.
- The senior faces a Tulane defense that sits 31st in the country in EPA/Pass. However, the Green Wave is 68th defensively in yards per dropback (6.61). Houser has compiled an average of 8.12 yards per dropback.
- Houser didn’t throw an interception in the first two games, while getting picked off 4 times in the last three contests. Tulane intercepted 4 passes against Northwestern in the opener, but has racked up only 2 interceptions in the past four games.
- Against Army, Houser posted his top passing grade of the season at 86.0 according to PFF. It was also his best game from a yards per attempt standpoint at 11.0, doing so on only 25 dropbacks.
Tulane RB Javin Gordon vs. East Carolina Projection: 45.5 Rushing Yards
- The freshman had his breakout performance against Tulsa, scoring 3 TDs and rushing for 78 yards in a 31-14 rout.
- Gordon produced more than 46 yards in one of his first four games, coming against South Alabama with 80 rushing yards in Week 2.
- East Carolina is one of the top teams in defensive EPA/Rush, ranking seventh in the country. Four of five teams Tulane has faced sit 92nd or lower in this category as the best team was Duke at 70th.
- Gordon is the leading running back on Tulane in yardage with 235, but Retzlaff is the top rusher on the team with 368 yards on the ground.
East Carolina WR Anthony Smith vs. Tulane Projection: 60.5 Receiving Yards
- Smith has picked up 61 or more receiving yards in three of five games this season. In ECU’s rout of Army, the senior delivered 87 yards, including a 40-yard TD catch.
- In each of the first three games, Smith hauled in more than 6 receptions. However, he has been limited to 5 catches in the past two contests.
- Tulane allowed two Tulsa receivers to top 70 yards two weeks ago. Nine opposing receivers have compiled more than 61 yards this season.
- Smith’s yards per play has dropped off significantly from 2024. Last season, he put up 17.84 YPP, but that number has slipped to 8.60 this season.
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Both East Carolina and Tulane enter Thursday’s crucial American Conference contest at 1-0 in league play. Tulane won the last two meetings in 2022 and 2023, and ECU seeks revenge for those defeats.
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