The 2026 F1 season has been all Mercedes through two races — but the Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka Circuit is where that story gets stress-tested.
McLaren is lurking, as Oscar Piastri led all drivers in Practice 2 on Friday. Ferrari isn’t going away. Ultimately, the 2026 Japan Grand Prix qualifying results and grid position will be a major deciding factor on this track, and Kimi Antonelli will start in pole position, with teammate George Russell right behind.
The new F1 overtake boost is untested at this kind of circuit, leaving a lot to learn when the race gets underway on Sunday, March 29, at 1 a.m. ET (or late Saturday night).
Below, we’ll break down everything you need to know for the F1 Japan GP, including official qualifying results, key track info, starting grid, winner predictions, and payouts on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your F1 predictions in every race.
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2026 F1 Qualifying Results: Japan Grand Prix 2026
Here are the F1 Qualifying results from Saturday's qualifying session at Suzuka Circuit. Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) will again start from pole position and is , with Russell behind him, and Piastri rounding out the top three.
Antonelli — who is coming off a win at the Chinese Grand Prix two weeks ago — was the fastest driver by nearly three-tenths of a second, winning his second pole of the season. Meanwhile, Max Verstappen was knocked out of qualifying in Q2 by Arvid Lindblad; Verstappen will start in 11th.
Grid position is everything at Suzuka, with only 15 overtakes in last year’s race — use these qualifying results to make your F1 predictions.
2026 Japanese Grand Prix Starting Grid
- Kimi Antonelli – Mercedes – 1:28.778
- George Russell – Mercedes – +0.298s
- Oscar Piastri – McLaren – +0.354s
- Charles Leclerc – Ferrari – +0.627s
- Lando Norris – McLaren – +0.631s
- Lewis Hamilton – Ferrari – +0.789s
- Pierre Gasly – Alpine – +0.913s
- Isack Hadjar – Red Bull – +1.200s
- Gabriel Bortoleto – Audi – +1.496s
- Arvid Lindblad – Racing Bulls – +1.541s
- Max Verstappen – Red Bull – Eliminated in Q2
- Esteban Ocon – Haas – Eliminated in Q2
- Nico Hulkenberg – Audi – Eliminated in Q2
- Liam Lawson – Racing Bulls – Eliminated in Q2
- Franco Colapinto – Alpine – Eliminated in Q2
- Carlos Sainz – Williams – Eliminated in Q2
- Alex Albon – Williams – Eliminated in Q1
- Oliver Bearman – Haas – Eliminated in Q1
- Sergio Perez – Cadillac – Eliminated in Q1
- Valtteri Bottas – Cadillac – Eliminated in Q1
- Fernando Alonso – Aston Martin – Eliminated in Q1
- Lance Stroll – Aston Martin – Eliminated in Q1
Starting in pole, Antonelli is the current favorite to win the 2026 Japanese Grand Prix (1.61x payout on PrizePicks), with Russell as the only other real contender (2.85x). The Mercedes duo of Russell and Antonelli were fastest in Practice 1. However, Oscar Piastri led all drivers in Practice 2, followed by the Mercedes drivers.
2026 Japan GP Lap Time Projections from Practice
In 2025, Max Verstappen won pole here with a 1:26.983 lap time — the fastest lap in Suzuka’s F1 history. However, in Practice 2, Piastri’s fastest lap of 1:30.133 was over three seconds off that pace.
Based on Friday’s Practice 2, lap times at the 2026 Japan GP are almost certain to be slower than 2025. The dip can be attributed to the new regulations reducing downforce and forcing energy management through high-speed sections of the track.
2026 F1 Japan Grand Prix Winner: Favorites, Payouts
Mercedes’ George Russell opened as the favorite to win the 2026 Japanese Grand Prix. Below is a full breakdown of the latest favorites and payouts to win the race on Sunday, March 29, at 1:00 a.m. ET.
Payouts indicate real-money earnings if a F1 Japan GP pick is correct; for example, 2x on a $100 entry would pay out $200 on PrizePicks Team Picks. “Yes” payouts represent the payouts if the driver wins; “No” payouts indicate payouts if they do not win.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli – Yes 1.61x | No 2.17x
George Russell – Yes 2.85x | No 1.38x
Charles Leclerc – Yes 14.28x | No 1.01x
Oscar Piastri – Yes 16.66x
Lewis Hamilton – Yes 22.22x
All Other Drivers – 33.33x
2026 F1 Japan GP Podium Finishers: Favorites, Payouts
Here are the 2026 F1 Japan Grand Prix podium finishers favorites and payouts for Sunday’s F1 race. A lower number on “Yes” represents a greater implied probability.
George Russell (Mercedes) Andrea Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes), and Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) each have over a 50% implied probability to finish on the podium as favorites.
George Russell – Yes 1.07x | No 2x
Andrea Kimi Antonelli – Yes 1.12x | No 4.76x
Charles Leclerc – Yes 1.53x | No 2.08x
Oscar Piastri – Yes 2.22x | No 1.38x
Lewis Hamilton – Yes 3.84x | No 1.2x
Lando Norris – Yes 6.66x | No 1.08x
Max Verstappen – Yes 11.11x | No 1.03x
Isack Hadjar – Yes 22.22x
All Other Drivers – Yes 33.33x
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2026 F1 Predictions for Japanese Grand Prix: Back Mercedes Again?
F1 Japan GP Winner: Andrea Kimi Antonelli (Yes 1.61x / No 2.17x)
F1 Japan GP Podium: Charles Leclerc (Yes 1.53x / No 2.08x)
Suzuka is a track that rewards qualifying position — and Mercedes has the front row locked down. Antonelli is in first, with Russell in second, exactly where they started and finished last race.
The front row has won at Suzuka every year since 2011, and while there are some unknowns about this track with 2026 regs, nothing about this weekend suggests that changes in a big way.
At Suzuka, the key is to trust the starting grid. Antonelli starts from the front for the second consecutive race and is coming off a win in China. He was fastest in qualifying by nearly three-tenths of a second — that's not a close call by any means.
Due to McLaren's energy-harvesting issues, it's hard to trust their team for the entirety of a race, which will have to happen to keep Oscar Piastri in third, where he'll start.
And with Piastri's car, just about everything has gone wrong this season — he hasn't completed a single Grand Prix lap in 2026, with a crash on the reconnaissance lap in Australia followed by an electrical failure in China that pulled him off the grid before lights out.
The pace is real, though — Piastri topped FP2 and nearly split the Mercedes pair in Q3 on Saturday. But Norris called McLaren the third-best team right now and said that the car isn't where he wants it to be. If that's their own drivers, it might not be the best time to back this team.
Norris had yet another ERS issue at FP3 on Saturday — so the pattern hasn't stopped for McLaren quite yet. But they do seem to be getting closer.
The 2.22x payout for Piastri on the podium is pricing in his grid position heavily, but it's not pricing in the reliability risk of McLaren, the lack of race data with the new car, or the fact that he'll be managing energy at a circuit he's never navigated under these regs in a live race.
Piastri goes into 53 laps at Suzuka essentially, despite his qualifying success and what looks to be the best car right now outside of the Mercedes duo.
Leclerc rounds out our podium predictions. He qualified P4 at 0.627s off pace — close enough to capitalize on anything that goes sideways ahead of him. Leclerc has already had a fourth-place start turn into a podium finish once this year, and turned in a podium finish after starting outside the top three two times in 2025.
At 1.53x payout, Lecler's a sharper play if you think McLaren's issues follow them into race day.
F1 Japan GP Track: Everything You Need to Know About Suzuka Circuit
The Japanese Grand Prix is held at the Suzuka Circuit in Suzuka City, Mie Prefecture, Japan. The iconic 5.807-km, 18-corner track is the only figure-of-eight circuit in F1.
Qualifying position is everything at Suzuka. In 2025, 11 of 20 drivers finished the Japan Grand Prix exactly where they started — but could new regs change that at this legendary track?
2026 F1 Japan GP Track Map: Suzuka Circuit
Across its 18 turns, the Japan Grand Prix track is known best for its high-speed S Curves (turns 3-7), Degner Curves (turns 8-9), Spoon Curve (turns 13-14), and the high-speed 130R (turn 15).
The Suzuka Circuit's unique figure-of-eight configuration means it crosses over itself via an overpass, creating direction changes unlike any other track on the F1 calendar.
The west course section (turns 7 to 17) was resurfaced ahead of this race, meaning grip levels off the racing line are a question mark heading into the weekend.
Where Will Passing Happen at the Japanese Grand Prix?
Overtaking has become rare at the Japan GP, which is why qualifying is extremely crucial in this race. Track position should not be expected to change much once the field settles on the first lap.
With a long approach from 130R, traditionally the most overtakes are at the chicane, between turns 16 and 18.
2026 Japan GP: Will the New Rules Fix Suzuka's Overtaking Problem?
After 48 total overtakes in the 2024 Japan GP, there were just 15 in the 2025 race — the third fewest among last year’s F1 races. That made Suzuka one of the most low-action races of last season.
"This has always been one of the favorite driver circuits, but not necessarily great racing, because there's a struggle to overtake,” Ferrari driver Lewis Hamilton said.
Now, Suzuka Circuit will be “a good test” for the new 2026 FIA regulations, according to Mercedes driver George Russell. The FIA explicitly designed the 2026 regs to benefit overtaking at circuits like Suzuka.
The new overtake boost — which replaced the DRS system — could make this stretch an even more likely spot for overtaking, as the extra power when drivers are within one second of the car ahead will be crucial.
On the other hand, cars will still lose power through the 130R itself due to super-clipping — even with the straight mode zone on the approach. That compresses the speed differential between chasing and leading cars into the chicane braking zone, making a clean pass that much harder to execute.
F1 Japan Grand Prix Track History
Suzuka Circuit has hosted the Japanese Grand Prix since 1987. It’s the only F1 track in history to run both clockwise and counter-clockwise. In the modern era, this race has belonged to two teams: Red Bull and Mercedes.
Mercedes — who has won both races of the 2026 season — won six straight here from 2014-2019, with Lewis Hamilton (now with Ferrari) claiming four of those. Then Red Bull took over, with Max Verstappen winning four straight Japan GPs from 2022-2025.
No driver has won from outside the front two rows at Suzuka since 2011.
Who Won the 2025 F1 Japan Grand Prix?
Verstappen won the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix from pole position, holding off Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri across 53 laps. The McLaren duo rounded out the podium, with both finishing less than 2.2 seconds off the lead in 2025.
It wasn’t exactly a thrilling race in Japan last year: the top 10 qualifying order was nearly untouched by the checkered flag. 11 of 20 drivers finished exactly where they started.
Although Mercedes is the favorite to win another race on Sunday, the team struggled at Suzuka under previous regulations. In 2025, Russell — the favorite to win in 2026 — finished fifth (+17.362s), while Kimi Antonelli finished sixth (+18.671s).
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Make Your 2026 F1 Japan GP Picks on PrizePicks
If the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix results are any indication, the 2026 race may be one of the most pick-friendly races on the F1 calendar. Last year, qualifying told us almost everything we needed to know, with little movement happening on the track.
Mercedes is the current team to beat, but with McLaren showing race-winning pace and Suzuka's new surface adding uncertainty, there's plenty of opportunity to make your F1 predictions.
Lock in your F1 Japan GP predictions on PrizePicks Team Picks before Sunday's 1 a.m. ET race start — and check out our full F1 predictions hub for winner picks across every race this season.
