Ladies and gentlemen, after a busy weekend in Miami, the main event is finally here, The 2026 Miami Grand Prix will take place on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, streaming on Apple TV.
The Miami Sprint race ran on Saturday afternoon, with McLaren's Lando Norris taking the win; qualifying wrapped up later in the day, with Kimi Antonelli winning pole for Sunday's F1 Miami Grand Prix.
The F1 Miami Grand Prix was originally scheduled to start at 4 p.m. ET, but the race has been moved to 1 p.m. ET, due to forecasted inclement weather.
Below, we'll break down our Miami F1 Grand Prix predictions to win and finish podium (top 3) for Sunday, May 3, including qualifying results, race predictions, and F1 picks for PrizePicks.
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Miami F1 Qualifying Results for Miami Grand Prix 2026
Naturally, F1 predictions for the first race since the Japan Grand Prix in late March are wide open. The break has given the F1 season a restart of sorts. Some teams have improved, some have regressed a little, and others are just a question mark.
All in all, Saturday in Miami had a little bit of everything.
McLaren turned the Sprint into a statement with a Lando Norris-Oscar Piastri 1-2, but disappointed in qualifying, as Kimi Antonelli kept his qualifying heater alive with another pole in brutal South Florida heat.
Antonelli became the third driver to take his first three poles in Formula 1 consecutively. At only 19 years old, Antonelli is starting to prove that his early-season dominance was no fluke.
The Italian delivered for Mercedes in Q3, holding off Max Verstappen (Red Bull) and Charles Leclerc (Ferrari), who will start second and third on Sunday, respectively. Lando Norris made a bid as well, but ended up qualifying in fourth.
Below are the F1 Miami qualifying results to utilize in making your F1 predictions on PrizePicks. Keep in mind that Miami is notorious for overtaking, with 80 in 2025; it wouldn't be a surprise to see the results see a massive shake-up from the starting order.
2026 Miami Grand Prix Starting Grid for Sunday
Here's how the drivers qualified for the F1 Miami Grand Prix, from front to back. These qualifying results also make up Sunday's Miami Grand Prix starting grid.
Payouts equal real-money earnings if your F1 Miami GP pick is right. For example, 3x on a $100 entry pays out $300 on PrizePicks Team Picks. “Yes” payouts represent the payouts if the driver wins; “No” payouts indicate payouts if they do not win. Payous are live as of writing, but are subject to change.
- Kimi Antonelli – Mercedes – 1:27.798
- Max Verstappen – Red Bull – +0.166s
- Charles Leclerc – Ferrari – +0.345s
- Lando Norris – McLaren – +0.385s
- George Russell – Mercedes – +0.399s
- Lewis Hamilton – Ferrari – +0.521s
- Oscar Piastri – McLaren – +0.702s
- Franco Colapinto – Alpine – +0.964s
- Isack Hadjar – Red Bull – +0.991s
- Pierre Gasly – Alpine – +1.012s
- Niko Hulkenberg – Audi – Eliminated in Q2
- Liam Lawson – Racing Bulls – Eliminated in Q2
- Oliver Bearman – Haas – Eliminated in Q2
- Carlos Sainz – Williams – Eliminated in Q2
- Esteban Ocon – Haas – Eliminated in Q2
- Alexander Albom – Williams – Eliminated in Q2
- Arvid Lindblad – Racing Bulls – Eliminated in Q3
- Lance Stroll – Aston Martin – Eliminated in Q3
- Fernando Alonso – Aston Martin – Eliminated in Q3
- Valtteri Bottas – Cadillac – Eliminated in Q3
- Sergio Perez – Cadillac – Eliminated in Q3
- Gabriel Bortoleto – Audi – Eliminated in Q3
Starting in pole, Antonelli is the updated favorite to win the 2026 Miami Grand Prix, with a 1.61x payout on PrizePicks to win the race.
Several other contenders now lurk behind him, including four-time champion Max Verstappen (2.85x payout). Charles Leclerc and Max Verstappen were fastest in Practice 1. However, Lando Norris won the Sprint with Oscar Piastri right behind him.
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2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix Winner Favorites, Payouts
Mercedes’ Kimi Antonelli opened as the favorite to win the 2026 Miami Grand Prix.
Below is a complete breakdown of the Miami Grand Prix favorites to win, and payouts if drivers win the race on Sunday, May 3, at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Kimi Antonelli – Yes 2.43x | No 1.31x
Max Verstappen– Yes 3.33x | No 1.28x
Lando Norris – Yes 6.66x | No 1.07x
Charles Leclerc – Yes 6.66x | No 1.08x
George Russell – Yes 11.11x | No 1.03x
Lewis Hamilton – Yes 16.66x | No 1.01x
Oscar Piastri – Yes 22.22x
All Other Drivers – Yes 33.33x
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2026 F1 Miami GP Podium Finishers: Favorites, Payouts
Here are the favorites for the F1 Miami Grand Prix podium finishers for Sunday’s F1 race. A lower number on “Yes” represents a greater implied probability.
Lando Norris (McLaren), Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes), and Max Verstappen (Red Bull) each have over a 50 percent implied probability to finish on the podium as favorites.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli – Yes 1.19x | No 3.12x
Max Verstappen – Yes 1.61x | No 2.09x
Lando Norris – Yes 1.69x | No 2.06x
Charles Leclerc– Yes 1.92x | No 1.61x
George Russell – Yes 2.08x | No 1.42x
Oscar Piastri – Yes 3.57x | No 1.23x
Lewis Hamilton – Yes 5.26x | No 1.08x
Pierre Gasly – Yes 7.69x
Isack Hadjar – Yes 10x
Franco Colapinto – Yes 10x
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2026 F1 Miami Predictions: Back Norris And Verstappen?
Lando Norris to win the Miami Grand Prix: Yes 6.66x | No 1.07x
Max Verstappen to finish on Miami Grand Prix podium: Yes 1.61x | No 2.09x
Miami does not reward qualifying position to the extent that other circuits do; no drover from the starting pole position or front row has won the Miami GP in the four years of its existence. Antonelli has the pole, but that doesn't mean a win is locked up.
The front row has seen its share of podium results in Miami; however, Max Verstappen looked much better throughout practice, in the Sprint, and at qualifying on Saturday. At Miami, the most vital thing may be to trust late-run speed in practice.
Antonelli starts from the front for the second consecutive race and is coming off a win in Japan. The Mercedes youngster was fastest in qualifying by only 0.166 seconds ahead of Verstappen. Verstappen was faster in Q2 and arguably had better late-run speed at times during the Sprint.
Due to McLaren's energy-harvesting issues, there were concerns about problems during the Sprint event. However. Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri went 1-2. Norris did turn in some better laps during the second half ot the Sprint.
In the first three races on the season, McLaren has had its share of issues with a crash on the reconnaissance lap in Australia, followed by an electrical failure in China that pulled Piastri off the grid before lights out. Norris has not had a single podium, and Piastri’s best finish was third in Japan.
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The pace has proven to be there, though — Norris and Piastri ran away with the Sprint. Norris was close in practice and in qualifying, too. Piastri did fall off from Q2 to Q3, but Norris seemed to be pushing all of the right buttons and kept improving.
McLaren did not have another ERS issue; the hope is that the team has put those issues behind them. The 6.66x payout for Norris to win the Miami GPs is reasonable given his grid position (4th) and Sprint finish (1st).
Norris has put a lot of laps in on this track (39 at Miami essentially) on Saturday, and outside of Antonelli and maybe Verstappen, Norris has looked the best among all the cars this weekend.
After qualifying in the No.2 spot, Verstappen is the best look for our F1 podium predictions. He qualified P2 at 0.166s off pace — close enough to pounce on any potential Antonelli mistakes should he make one.
Verstappen has won twice on the Miami track and has a second-place finish as well. It is truly hard to count the four-time world champion out.
F1 Miami GP Track: Racing at Miami International Autodrome
The Miami Grand Prix is held at the Miami International Autodrome in Miami Gardens, Miami, Florida. The 5.412-km, 19-corner track features some fast racing and more than enough overtakes (typically in the 40’s).
Qualifying position is again not a guarantee of success on the track. Drivers like Max Verstappen and Lando Norris can be an exception.
2026 F1 Miami GP Track Map: Miami International Autodrome
Over its 19 turns, the Miami Grand Prix track is best known for its three long straightaways, the Yacht Corner, and, naturally, all those overtakes. Also, there is the overtake detection and activation areas between Turns 17 and 19.
The Miami International Autodrome’s purpose-built configuration means it races on roads that only intersect public roads. The course itself is all around the Hard Rock complex, basically.
The super-long straightaway (between Turns 16 and 17). It makes for the chance that a car can get that little extra juice to make more passes on Sunday.
Where Will Overtaking Happen at the Miami Grand Prix?
Overtaking can occur just about anywhere on the Miami GP track, which is why qualifying is not completely crucial in this race. Track position could be changeable with a fast car, as passing can happen in what feels like a half-dozen places or more.
With a long approach, traditionally, the most overtakes are at the chicane and the straightaway before it.
2026 Miami GP: Will the Weather Cause Issues In Miami?
After overtakes in the 40’s at the 2023 and 2024 Miami GP, there were a whopping 80 in the 2025 race — one of the highest among last year’s F1 races. That made Miami one of the high-action race tracks of the season.
One worry with Miami has always been the rain. It could really rear its ugly head on Sunday afternoon with a 75 to 90 percent chance of thunderstorms from the late afternoon into the evening. Scattered thunderstorms (a 40 to 60 percent chance is forecast for early in the afternoon (1 to 3 pm window).
The move to a 1 p.m. start should help avoid the worst of the rain, but it's certainly no guarantee.
The new overtake boost, combined with the new harvesting rules, should help a little with safety issues. Rain will cause changes and make drivers want to drive much more cautiously. Track conditions are expected to be wet.
On the other hand, cars will still lose power even with only a one-stop strategy. Tire wear is pretty minimal in Miami. Those long straightaways will lead to quite a few passes, especially early, provided the weather holds in the early portions of the race.
F1 Miami Grand Prix Track History and Past Winners
Miami International Autodrome has hosted the Miami Grand Prix since 2022. It’s the only F1 track that is built around a stadium and its grounds. As of 2026, this race has belonged to two teams: Red Bull and McLaren.
Mercedes — who has won all three races of the 2026 season, only has one podium, and that was in 2025, Max Verstappen won the first two editions of the race and has a second and a fourth to go along with it. Verstappen has the best history among all drivers in Miami.
Winning is possible from outside the two rows. Max Verstappen charged from 9th to win in 2023.
Who Won the 2025 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
Oscar Piastri won the 2025 Miami Grand Prix from the fourth position, holding off Lando Norris and George Russell across 57 laps. The McLaren duo were 1-2 on the podium, finishing a mere 4.63 seconds away from each other.
It did not end very thrillingly, with Russell more than 37 seconds off the pace in third, but there was quite a bit of excitement in the race. Four drivers had to retire from the race, and only three drivers ended in the same position they started.
Although Mercedes is the favorite to win yet another race on Sunday, the team has been challenged in Miami under previous regulations. In 2025, Antonelli — the favorite to win in 2026 — finished fifth (+17.362s), while Kimi Antonelli finished sixth (+55.502s).
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Make Your 2026 F1 Miami GP Picks on PrizePicks
If the 2025 Miami Grand Prix results are any indication, the 2026 race may be one of the most intriguing races for picks on the F1 calendar. Last year, qualifying told us almost nothing we needed to know, given how much movement there was on the track.
Mercedes has been the current team to beat, but with McLaren showing race-winning pace and Miami being Miami, there's plenty of opportunity to make your F1 predictions.
Lock in your F1 Miami GP predictions on PrizePicks Team Picks before Sunday's 1 p.m. ET race start — and check out our full F1 predictions hub for winner picks across every race this season.
