The Cincinnati Reds (20-12) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (17-16) collide for the second matchup of their three-game series on Saturday, May 2, at 4:05 p.m. ET. According to PrizePicks Team Picks, the Pirates are a home favorite with a 1.69x payout if they win.
Pittsburgh dominated in the series opener with a 9-1 win on Friday night, taking the Pirates to 3-1 against the Reds this season. Will that success continue this afternoon?
Below, we'll break down our Reds vs. Pirates prediction and picks for Saturday’s MLB game, including the winner payouts, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your picks for Reds vs. Pirates on PrizePicks now.
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Reds vs. Pirates Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Saturday, May 2
The NL Central is shaping up to be a tight race with all five teams carrying winning records. Pittsburgh sits in last place, but it’s only 3.5 games back from the Reds and Cubs in first place with 20-12 records.
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, the Cubs (2.12x) have the shortest payout for “Yes” to win the NL Central, followed by the Reds (4.16x). The Pirates (5.55x) have the second-longest payout to win the division. Predict your NL Central winner on PrizePicks now.
After snapping a five-game losing streak on Friday, the Pirates are looking to hand Cincinnati its first series loss since April 12. Before this series, the Reds won five consecutive series.
Today’s starting pitcher matchup features Reds SP Rhett Lowder (4.31 xFIP across 6 starts and 34.0 IP) and Pirates SP Carmen Mlodzinski (3.50 xFIP across 5 starts and 28.1 IP).
Reds vs. Pirates Winner Payout, Over/Under – Saturday, May 2
The Pirates enter Saturday’s game as a home favorite against the Reds, returning a 1.69x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Reds vs. Pirates game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (2.43x payout)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (1.92x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Reds - 2.08x | Pirates - 1.69x
Play the Reds vs. Pirates winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Reds vs. Pirates Prediction on Winner – 5/2/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Reds vs. Pirates prediction for the winner on Saturday, May 2.
Lock in your Reds vs. Pirates prediction on PrizePicks before the line moves.
- The over is 8-2 in the Reds’ last 10 games and has delivered in seven consecutive games. Cincinnati averaged 5.3 runs per contest in the last seven matchups.
- Pittsburgh also brings a hot streak, going over the run total in four straight matchups. In that split, the Pirates have posted 6.3 runs per game.
- On the season, Pittsburgh has a .247 batting average (11th) and posts 4.9 runs (ninth) and 8.6 hits per game (sixth).
- Furthermore, the Pirates have elevated their 1.2 home runs per game (12th) to 2.3 per contest over the last four games.
- According to FanGraphs, Reds SP Rhett Lowder has done an excellent job of limiting big flies with 0.26 HR/9 and a 2.4% home run-to-fly ball ratio.
- Lowder’s most-used pitches are a sinker (30.7%), slider (24.8%), four-seam fastball (24.1%), and changeup (20.4%), per Baseball Savant.
- Pittsburgh ranks 18th, 27th, and 25th in runs above average against sinkers, sliders, and fastballs.
- Meanwhile, Pirates SP Carmen Mlodzinski has allowed 5 and 4 earned runs over his last two starts and 8.0 IP, leading to a 10.13 ERA in the split.
Reds vs. Pirates Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks – 5/2/26
Here are top Reds vs. Pirates picks to target on PrizePicks for Saturday, May 2. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Sal Stewart and Carmen Mlodzinski.
Reds 1B Sal Stewart vs. Pirates Projection: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
- Sal Stewart’s swinging a heavy bat this season, sporting a .554 xSLG (94th percentile), 91.1 average exit velocity (76th percentile), and a 19.8% barrel rate (96th percentile).
- Pirates SP Carmen Mlodzinski has yielded a .267 xBA (24th percentile), 91.9 average exit velocity (seventh percentile), and 55.4% hard-hit rate (second percentile).
- Mlodzinski’s most-used pitch is a four-seam fastball (28.3% usage rate), and Stewart is raking to the tune of .346 against this pitch.
- The Reds’ star rookie has posted 2.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs per game.
- Stewart bats in the clean-up spot behind Reds SS Elly De La Cruz, who is third in the lineup. De La Cruz also carries strong slugging, including a 52.9% hard-hit rate (92nd percentile), that could burn Mlodzinski.
Add Sal Stewart to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Pirates SP Carmen Mlodzinski vs. Reds: 4.5 Hits Allowed
- Over six starts this season, Mlodzinski has given up at least 5 hits in five starts.
- The Pirates’ right-handed hurler has ceded 11 hits in his last two starts, leading to a 5.5 per-game average in the split.
- Despite recording only 7.2 hits per game (30th), the Redlegs have increased their production to 8.4 hits per contest over the last 12 games.
- Cincinnati’s 33.5% hard-hit rate is tied for the 10th-highest mark in baseball, potentially exposing Mlodzinski’s 55.4% hard-hit rate allowed (second percentile).
Add Carmen Mlodzinski to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make Reds vs. Pirates Picks on PrizePicks
Will the Reds avoid losing their first series since April 12? The Pirates are looking to add to their 3-1 head-to-head record against their NL Central foe.
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Reds vs. Pirates picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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