2026 Miami Grand Prix Predictions, Sprint Picks, Winner This Weekend for PrizePicks

Miami is an F1 Sprint weekend, which means the additional race takes free practice (FP) out of the picture — leaving us, admittedly, with less data for our F1 predictions as we enter Saturday.

Miami's FP2 was replaced by Sprint Qualifying, and FP3 was replaced by the Sprint race on Saturday, 12 p.m. ET.

F1 teams and drivers will be greeted by a Miami Grand Prix track that goes around the Hard Rock Stadium and complex in South Florida. Without a race in over a month, F1 teams are anxious to get back at it.

Sunday's Miami Grand Prix race starts at 4:00 pm ET, live on Apple TV. Below, we'll break down our F1 predictions and Miami Grand Prix picks for PrizePicks, including picks for Saturday's Sprint.

Mercedes pair of drivers entered as the favorites for Miami, but money has moved toward McLaren's pair of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri after both qualified in the top three for the Sprint. We could see payouts shift again on PrizePicks after more racing on Saturday.

Without further ado, let's get into our top Miami Grand Prix predictions for Sunday's race and Saturday's Sprint.

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2026 Miami Grand Prix Predictions: Back the Favorites?

After Friday's practice and Sprint qualifying, the favorite to win the Miami Grand Prix is Lando Norris, entering Saturday's qualifying (12 p.m. ET), according to PrizePicks Team Picks.

Norris — the pole sitter for the Sprint — currently has a 3.03x payout ($100 pays out $303) if he wins the main Grand Prix race, while several other drivers, including Kimi Antonelli and teammate Oscar Piastri, are right behind him.

Friday's FP1 was extended 30 minutes (90 minutes in total) due to the layoff. That might help with collecting some extra data as we get back to racing, but not a lot.

The Miami GP is on a 3.363-mile track has 19 turns in all. Between turns 16 and 17 is the longest straight on the course, with a specific overtake zone after that should add some excitement.

At the Miami International Autodrome, drivers will need to get an idea of where the best angles to pass, and those three long straightaways will vital. Qualifying always matters in F1 because track position is so valuable. Granted, no one at Miami has won from the pole or Row 1 — but there can always be a first time.

In 2025, this race saw an insane 80 overtakes on this track. Expecting that this year may be questionable because of Mother Nature — drivers may be a bit more cautious if it is wet.

Payout multipliers listed below (like 2x) indicate real-money earnings if your F1 predictions are correct on PrizePicks; for example, 4x on a $100 entry pays $400 if correct on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 35 states, including Florida. “Yes” payouts represent a specific outcome occurring, whereas "No" payouts indicate the opposite. Lower payouts indicate more popular picks; higher payouts are less popular.

2026 Miami GP Predictions on Winner: Favorites, Payouts

Here are the favorites to win the Miami Grand Prix on PrizePicks Team Picks as of Saturday at 6 a.m. ET.

1. Lando Norris – Yes 3.03x | No 1.35x
2. Kimi Antonelli – Yes 3.22x | No 1.31x
3. Oscar Piastri – Yes 6.25x | No 1.08x
4. George Russell – Yes 6.66x | No 1.08x
5. Charles Leclerc – Yes 7.14x | No 1.07x
6. Lewis Hamilton – Yes 14.28x | No 1.28x
7. Max Verstappen – Yes 16.66x | No 1.01x
8. All Other Drivers – Yes 33.33x

Predict the 2026 Miami Grand Prix winner on PrizePicks now and earn money if you're right

Only two teams have won a race at the Miami International Autodrome — Red Bull and McLaren. Max Verstappen has won twice. Lando Norris won the 2024 race, and Oscar Piastri triumphed in 2025.

Winners have qualified third, ninth, fifth, and fourth. Each win showed a driver carrying immense pace at some point during qualifying and/or the later sprint process.

The last two years have seen McLaren’s ability to go faster later in runs show up in Miami at the most crucial time — and that may be the case again this year after improving their car over the break.

First, Norris showed great racing form, and then it was Piastri’s turn. Last year, Piastri held something back between Q2 and Q3, which was different. One thing to watch for is how teams use the sprints to get into race shape, especially considering the break.

An extended FP1 favors a team like McLaren over Ferrari. Furthermore, this may help Red Bull and Verstappen with their handling issues.

Then, there is Mercedes. Mercedes held a nice gap over the first couple of races, but Japan saw a lowering of the guard. Ultimately, 19-year-old Kimi Antonelli won again, but Oscar Piastri’s first podium of 2026 showed McLaren’s upside that could continue to close the gap.

It will be intriguing to see how close any driver gets to the 100-kilometer form that McLaren showed in 2025. McLaren’s new package could contend, and some believe it has a chance over Mercedes as soon as this week. Others think this is still Mercedes’ race to lose, which is what PrizePicks payouts indicated before FP1.

Who Will Win the 2026 Miami Grand Prix?

George Russell to win the Miami GP: Yes 6.66x | No 1.08x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

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2026 Miami Grand Prix Top 5 Predictions, Favorites for Sunday, May 3

Here are the favorites to finish in the Top 5 in the Miami Grand Prix on Sunday via PrizePicks Team Picks, as well as two picks to consider to finish Top 5. You can also choose "No" if you think they won't finish Top 5 and receive the payout.

PrizePicks Team Picks also offers Top 10 markets for F1 races, available in 35 states, including Florida.

1. Kimi Antonelli – Yes 1.02x
2. Lando Norris – Yes 1.03x | No 1.19x
3. Oscar Piastri – Yes 1.05x
4. Charles Leclerc – Yes 1.07x | No 1.96x
5. George Russell – Yes 1.09x | No 1.36x
6. Lewis Hamilton – Yes 1.28x | No 1.03x
7. Isack Hadjar – Yes 1.92x | No 1.09x
8. Pierre Gasly – Yes 2.22x | No 1.03x
9. Max Verstappen – Yes 2.7x | No 1.36x

Max Verstappen to Finish Top 5?

Max Verstappen to Top 5 at the Miami GP: Yes 2.7x | No 1.92x

It is strange to see the four-time former Drivers' Champion Verstappen in the mid-tier range, but Red Bull has had a laundry list of issues in 2026.

It's not out of the question that Verstappen can manufacture speed in Miami, where has won twice, and won a Sprint. Add in a few poles, and the “mid” driver is far from it.

Verstappen finished fifth in SQ on Friday, an encouraging sign compared to where this car started the F1 season.

Predict Max Verstappen's Miami Grand Prix finishing position on PrizePicks

Pierre Gasly to Finish Top 5?

Pierre Gasly to Top 5 at the Miami GP: Yes 2.22x | No 1.03x

Gasly has had a solid start to the 2026 season. He has come close to a Top 5 result twice before the break, placing sixth and seventh. The Alpine has a Mercedes engine, which has been shown to deliver power late and sustain well on longer runs.

The fewer cautions, the better for a driver like Gasly. Gasly tested at Silverstone in January in the rain. He kindly found it challenging, so Gasly is ready.

Predict Pierre Gasly's Miami Grand Prix finishing position on PrizePicks

2026 Miami Grand Prix Fastest Lap Prediction

Lando Norris to have fastest lap in Miami Grand Prix: Yes 2.94x | No 1.23x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Lando Norris and McLaren came in with a plan and mission in Friday's practice. Norris edged Kimi Antonelli by 0.222 seconds for the best lap there. and It was clear that the car felt a better level of grip. When a driver feels confident, he can drive with speed within a race, Sprint, or lap.

Predict Miami Grand Prix Fastest Lap on PrizePicks

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2026 Miami Grand Prix Sprint Prediction, Picks to Win

Here are the payouts for drivers to win the Miami Grand Prix Sprint at 12 p.m. ET on Saturday from PrizePicks Team Picks. Favorites to win the Sprint are listed up top, with McLaren's Lando Norris starting in pole position.

The Sprint is a shortened, 100-km race, where speed trumps most everything else. A few new wrinkles ironed themselves out after Sprint Qualifying.

1. Lando Norris – Yes 1.88x | No 1.78x
2. Kimi Antonelli – Yes 3.12x | No 1.28x
3. Charles Leclerc –Yes 6.66x | No 1.07x
4. Oscar Piastri – Yes 7.69x | No 1.04x
5. George Russell – Yes 14.28x | No 1.01x
6. Max Verstappen – Yes 22.22x

Max Verstappen

Max Verstappen to Win the Miami GP Sprint: 22.22x

Verstappen enjoys an average starting position at Miami of 3.25 over the four years of the Miami Grand Prix, and he'll start fifth on Saturday. The Red Bull driver has won the last two poles, and the good news is that dry weather is expected on Friday and again on Saturday.

Any handling issues should be fewer, and he can be one to watch as the Sprint goes along. One lap is one thing, but 19 laps could be a different story.

Oscar Piastri

Oscar Piastri to Win the Miami GP Sprint: Yes 7.69x | No 1.04x

The McLaren driver has been another force in Sprint and qualifying at the Miami International Autodrome. Again, McLaren’s package should show improvement from early in the 2026 campaign, particularly with those ERS issues. Piastri was showing solid form in Japan and a good deal of late-run speed.

The Sprint is one-third of the length of the race. With more areas to pass, Piastri could run well in the closing laps. It is clear that McLaren has shown some improvement in Miami already.

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Make Miami Grand Prix Predictions & Claim $50 on PrizePicks

New users on PrizePicks get $50 instantly in Lineups as a signup bonus after they play $5 when they sign up with promo code PLAYBOOK.

Now, to make your real-money F1 predictions for the Miami Grand Prix, here's how to get started:

1. Download the PrizePicks app and create your account
2. Enter promo code PLAYBOOK to unlock $50 instantly in Lineups — or click here to claim your new user offer
3. Verify your identity — required to play, usually takes less than 60 seconds
4. Make your first deposit
5. Navigate to the F1 board and choose your Player Picks, or tap the dropdown to go to Team Picks (if available in your state)

With Player Picks and Team Picks available for every Formula 1 race, there are always different ways to take on the race to get paid if you're right, from winners to fastest lap, to starting positions, and much more.

Stay locked on Playbook for F1 predictions, news, and picks every week — including more picks after Saturday's qualifying for the Miami Grand Prix.

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