A massive showdown between welterweight strikers awaits the diehard MMA fans of Western Australia as UFC caters to their time zone for the first time. American fight fans will need a cup of coffee for this instant classic, though.
We will give you an in-depth preview of every main card fight for UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, including our UFC Perth predictions, model analysis, and PrizePicks UFC picks. The UFC Perth main card is set to start at 7:00 a.m. ET on Paramount+.
Make your UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates predictions on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right on every fight, including on winners, method of victory, significant strikes, and more!
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UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates Predictions for Main Card Fights
Before we get into our UFC Fight Night predictions for Saturday night, a brief intro on what you'll find below.
We've listed the payouts for who will win each UFC Fight Night main card fight via PrizePicks Team Picks; for example, a 2x means that result will payout $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.
PrizePicks Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. UFC winner markets available in 35 states.
Swaim’s UFC Predictions Model: How It Works
I’ve developed a predictive UFC model that uses historical UFC stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.
To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 35 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be run through the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible.
Each UFC Perth main card fight is listed below with this model data to help you make your UFC predictions on PrizePicks.
Follow Austin Swaim for more UFC picks, predictions, and analysis.
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates Prediction for UFC Perth
Fight Winner Payouts: Jack Della Maddalena 1.96x | Carlos Prates 1.78x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
Weight Class: Welterweight (170 lbs.)
Della Maddelena vs. Prates Model Results:
A massive showdown at 170 pounds probably doesn’t have too much relevance to the title picture, but we should enjoy 25 minutes (or less) of two of the best strikers in the division going toe-to-toe.
Jack Della Maddalena will look to defend home turf. The boxing ace’s +1.73 striking success rate (SSR) did not cost him a chance at UFC gold in his last fight; it was a mediocre 64% takedown defense and inability to get back up against Islam Makhachev, who does that to plenty of folks.
Wrestling may be off the menu when Carlos Prates attempts just 0.21 takedowns per 15 minutes. The Muay Thai specialist is a diverse, creative thrower of limbs, and his 3.77% knockdown rate (KD%) is the highest in the division among fighters with at least 5 appearances. He slept Leon Edwards, Geoff Neal, Neil Magny, and more with that power:
I think the analytics tell the tale of the tape well. JDM is the more voluminous guy on a per-minute basis, but Prates’ power is a great equalizer. Normally, that would lead to significant indecision in the model, but Della Maddalena has yet to be dropped in the UFC, and his striking defense (63%) is excellent.
We’ve seen Prates struggle at a distance against Trevin Giles, Ian Garry, or more, but “The Nightmare” always seems to deploy his heavy hands to make things interesting. We’ll see if he can do it again to pull off the upset on road soil.
Della Maddalena vs. Prates Pick for PrizePicks UFC
Carlos Prates - 56.5 Significant Strikes
Anyone with a brain can see Carlos Prates is a tremendous, accurate striker. It’s just puzzling why it doesn’t result in more volume.
The Brazilian very much “reads” over “scoring," allowing him to open up as the fight progresses. The result, though, is a mediocre 6.85 significant strikes attempted per minute. Accuracy can help make up for that against lesser competition, but we saw him land just 63 significant strikes in 25 minutes against Garry, whose 52% striking defense isn’t even elite.
The model gives a coin flip chance (49.2%) for this fight to go all 25 minutes, but Della Maddalena could punish Prates’ poor striking defense (47%) early in addition to being this low-output fighter. There has to be a very specific tenor to this fight for strikes to pile up, and I’m not sure the Aussie — respecting Prates’ power — is going to come out of the gates looking to brawl.
Make Your Della Maddalena vs. Prates Prediction on PrizePicks.
Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld Prediction for UFC Perth
Fight Winner Payouts: Beneil Dariush 4x | Quillan Salkilld 1.21x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs.)
Dariush vs. Salkilld Model Results:
The Australia/New Zealand region has two UFC champions, and many believe 26-year-old Quillan Salkilld has that potential at lightweight.
Salkilld is 4-0 in UFC, having run through three multi-time winners in as many fights. It’s not just that he’s been winning, but he’s producing highlights or dominating at every step of the way.
It’s a major step in competition for him on Saturday, though. Durability concerns aside, not many 155ers anywhere are as well-rounded and as skilled as Beneil Dariush. Though he’s lost three of his last five by first-round knockout, the Iranian showed he’s still got plenty of skills with decision wins over Mateusz Gamrot and Renato Moicano when able to survive early power.
The younger, sturdier Salkilld is a heavy favorite because of these concerns, and there is a chance Dariush’s knockout woes continue. The Aussie’s 1.08 KD% is quite capable, but that’s against a much lower level of competition and required unique moments, like the head kick, more than power in his hands.
Dariush’s only pro loss by submission came in 2016 to a welterweight (Michael Chiesa). If Salkilld doesn’t find the button early, the veteran, Dariush, could very well drag him into deep waters and test what he’s truly learned in a mere 12 pro appearances.
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Dariush vs. Salkilld Pick for PrizePicks UFC
Quillan Salkilld - 26.5 Significant Strikes
Daily fantasy could be extremely sensitive to a total with great variance. If Salkilld finds the button early, there obviously won’t be many significant strikes for either fighter. However, Dariush hasn’t been finished outside of Round 1 since March 2017.
Therefore, significant strike counts this low really require the question, “What does this fight look like?”
The model gives just a 34.0% chance that the fight goes the full 15 minutes, but that full duration might not be required to meet striking totals.
Salkilld deserves a special shout because, despite landing a whopping 7.95 takedowns per 15 minutes, he’s also added 5.16 significant strikes per minute. Not many can balance a wrestling-heavy approach with scoring significant strikes via their ground-and-pound, but it’s yet another special attribute the Western Australia native has shown thus far.
Make Your Dariush vs. Salkilld Prediction on PrizePicks.
Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg Prediction for UFC Perth
Fight Winner Payouts: Tim Elliott 2.32x | Steve Erceg 1.56x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
Weight Class: Flyweight (125 lbs.)
Elliott vs. Erceg Model Results:
Australia has a hometown, ranked contender in the third-to-last bout, too.
Steve Erceg, also known as “Astroboy,” had a meteoric rise into UFC’s 125-pound division to a point where he was minutes from defeating longtime champion Alexandre Pantoja in a short-notice bout in Brazil.
Erceg, though, has quickly learned how deep this weight class is. He lost a tight decision to Brandon Moreno, was flattened by Kai Kara-France, and nearly squeaked by an unranked Ode Osbourne in his last bout. He’ll face another numbered foe in the form of “Awkward” Tim Elliott.
A native of Lee’s Summit, Missouri, Elliott has come a long way from a 6-8 start in UFC that also featured a failed title bout. He’s actually won inside the rankings thrice since the start of 2022, including huge upsets of Tagir Ulanbekov and Kai Asakura.
Elliott, 39, isn’t getting any younger, but his non-stop activity, reliable wrestling (3.71 takedowns per 15 minutes), and opportunistic submission game (1.1 attempts per 15 minutes) are a tough out for anyone.
Erceg’s youth and athleticism are two huge arrows in his direction, but the overall identity for the Aussie just isn’t super clear. His pedestrian +0.21 SSR has come with average marks for takedowns (1.15) and submission attempts (0.4) landed per 15 minutes.
It’s difficult to see this fight not being close and grimy with the outcome in doubt late.
Elliott vs. Erceg Pick for PrizePicks UFC
Tim Elliott - 38.5 Significant Strikes
Length could carry Awkward Tim’s significant strikes total — even if the style and tempo of this fight could be suboptimal for scoring them.
If this fight holds to the model’s projection to go the distance (54.8%), Elliott has crested this mark in 4 of his last 7 decisions. The three exceptions saw him post a combined 12 takedowns, which would be a high total for this fight even if Astroboy's takedown defense (62%) is just okay.
The reservation for this projection could stem from the fact that Elliott has been submitted in 5 of his 11 UFC losses, which makes this matchup interesting. Though showing world-class survival skills on the ground, Erceg has yet to tap a foe in UFC.
Make Your Elliott vs. Erceg Prediction on PrizePicks.
Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid Prediction for UFC Perth
Fight Winner Payouts: Marwan Rahiki 1.13x | Ollie Schmid 5x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
Weight Class: Featherweight (145 lbs.)
Rahiki vs. Schmid Model Results: N/A (Rahiki and Schmid ineligible)
How exciting is 23-year-old prospect Marwan Rahiki? His short-notice bout this weekend is still placed on the main card.
Rahiki has been in two fireworks shows through two UFC-affiliated appearances. He’s landed 7.73 significant strikes per minute with 52% accuracy, and his striking defense (56%) has also made the grade.
However, “Freaky” Rahiki was dropped in his Contender Series bid, and he lost Round 1 to Harry Hardwick before a jaw injury ended the bout.
On extremely short notice, Ollie Schmid might need to check that chin. The City Kickboxing product is 4-2 as a pro and fights close to his New Zealand home this weekend. We don’t know much about him at the UFC level, as four of his six pro opponents have losing records.
Schmid has many of his gym's characteristics, including a tall, bladed stance, a good low kick, and a jab that sets up educated combinations upstairs. The creativity is definitely there, too.
Rahiki is a massive favorite as a surging prospect when Schmid’s resume leaves plenty to be desired, but it’s really challenging to trust the “known” commodity when he’s had to battle adversity in both fights. That could mean we have a sleeper “Fight of the Night” contender between these striking savants.
Rahiki vs. Schmid Pick for PrizePicks UFC
Ollie Schmid - 23.5 Significant Strikes
Size is an arrow in the underdog’s direction. At 5’11”, he’ll be the larger man, even ceding three inches in reach (69”) to Rahiki (72”). Durability could be the name of the game.
If that’s the case, this has all the makings of a stand-up war. Rahiki has mustered just one failed takedown attempt in just under 20 minutes of octagon time to this point.
Perhaps the gap in competition is too great, and Schmid makes a mistake, but Rahiki has needed at least 8 minutes in both fights thus far. Schmid might be around for a while to exchange and rack up significant strikes.
Make Your Rahiki vs. Schmid Prediction on PrizePicks.
Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic Prediction for UFC Perth
Fight Winner Payouts: Shamil Gaziev 2.04x | Brando Pericic 1.72x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
Weight Class: Heavyweight (265 lbs.)
Gaziev vs. Pericic Model Results: N/A (Pericic ineligible)
As yet another City Kickboxing product fighting in home territory, many are hoping Australia’s Brando Pericic is a much-needed injection of youth and talent into the heavyweight rankings.
It’s early for Pericic, who has just two first-round KOs of Elisha Ellison and Louie Southerland, a combined 0-3 in UFC to this point. Still, the speed and dominance he’s displayed in the weakest men’s division are pretty rare, and it’s translated to an outstanding +9.68 SSR on paper.
Truthfully, the UFC probably hopes he steamrolls Shamil “The Big Meal” Gaziev. At 36, Gaziev is coming off a first-round loss to Waldo Cortes-Acosta in Qatar last fall, but the Russian’s 4-2 record has him inside the top 15 for a reason. He dismantled Martin Buday and quickly slimed Thomas Peterson — two multi-time UFC winners.
Training with Khabib Nurmagomedov’s team in Dagestan, Gaziev isn’t always the most reliable party in terms of cardio, but he is skilled and likely has the grappling upside in this fight should he get to a dominant position.
On the other hand, are Pericic’s hands simply too quick for Gaziev, similar to Cortes-Acosta? It’s a great question we’ll get answered early Saturday morning.
Gaziev vs. Pericic Pick for PrizePicks UFC
Brando Pericic - 4.75 Minutes Fight Time
Your personal projected winner might very well correlate with a play on this fight’s total duration.
In Pericic’s six pro wins, he’s yet to go outside the first five minutes. The only fight of his entire career that started Round 2, his lone setback, was a second-round submission loss, and Gaziev is plenty skilled on the ground.
Bucking a divisional trend at heavyweight, Gaziev has been outside the first round in five of his last eight. His 1.59 KD% is imposing, but Pericic is a young, athletic heavyweight not afraid of a slugfest. If the Russian is going to win this, he might have to lean on his experience in a longer fight.
Make Your Gaziev vs. Pericic Prediction on PrizePicks.
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Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland Prediction for UFC Perth
Fight Winner Payouts: Tai Tuivasa 1.44x | Louie Sutherland 2.56x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
Weight Class: Heavyweight (265 lbs.)
Tuivasa vs. Sutherland Model Results: N/A (Sutherland ineligible)
This is a do-or-die spot for Tai Tuivasa, who could not survive a seventh straight loss at heavyweight and keep his roster spot. Scotland’s Louie Sutherland is a gamer, but he’s lost twice in the first round in his two UFC starts, so if you’re not beating him, all hope is lost.
I just don’t think we can put Tuivasa out to pasture like that, though. All six of his losses on this skid have come to ranked heavyweights. He’s been the full distance in his last two, showcasing some grappling improvements in a narrow loss to Talison Teixeira in Sydney earlier this year.
Sutherland’s regional brawling style with heavy forward pressure just hasn’t found success in the UFC to this point. He got sparked by Brando Pericic in a brawl, and Valter Walker snatched his leg for a Round 1 heel hook.
Tuivasa won’t bring out any submission danger, but his 1.67 KD% is no joke when you consider how often he’s had to be the “nail” in recent fights. For the first time in a while, you have to wonder if “Bam Bam” is in a spot to be the hammer.
Heavyweight will always have an element of variance with two guys who fight this way, but the veteran’s experience is a slight favorite in this spot.
Tuivasa vs. Sutherland Pick for PrizePicks UFC
Tai Tuivasa - 1.5 Total Rounds
This is an intriguing spot for the total rounds in Tuivasa’s bout because his recent appearances have been unlike himself.
In Bam Bam’s initial 8-3 run to begin his UFC career, seven of those 11 fights ended in 1.5 rounds or fewer. He’s been lengthened by better competition in four of his last six on the skid.
Dropping back in competition level, there’s definitely a chance a quicker fight returns to the table. That’s not just because Sutherland has lost twice inside the first four minutes in UFC; the Scot has seen 10 of his 15 pro appearances end under 1.5 total rounds.
Recency bias of two straight full-length bouts could be at play, but this is heavyweight when Tuivasa carries plenty of power, and personal attrition, into this potential last stand.
Make Your Tuivasa vs. Sutherland Prediction on PrizePicks.
Make UFC Fight Night Predictions on PrizePicks
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates goes down this Saturday morning from Perth, Western Australia, with a stacked card of fighters that are looking to climb up the ranks. Before the UFC Perth gets underway on Paramount+ at 7:00 a.m. ET, lock in your UFC predictions for tonight's card.
Just go to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more fighter projections in UFC Fight Night, headlined by Sterling vs. Zalal, and lock in your Lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.
You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks, available in 35 states.
Stay tapped into Playbook for more UFC predictions, picks, and analysis for every card, every weekend.
All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.
