UFC Oklahoma City Predictions for Du Plessis vs. Usman & Main Fight Card

Sports fans in Oklahoma City aren’t new to big events, and they’ve got a major UFC middleweight showdown headed to the Paycom Center — home of the NBA's Thunder — on Saturday night for UFC Fight Night.

In the UFC Oklahoma City main event, Dricus Du Plessis will look to rebound from his last title0fight defeat vs. fellow former champion Kamaru Usman, in a fight that could determine Sean Strickland’s next challenger in the middleweight division.

The UFC Oklahoma City main card features five fights, with Du Plessis a moderate favorite over Usman in the main event, according to PrizePicks Team Picks.

In the co-main event, English striking prodigy Christian Leroy Duncan will look to take another step closer to the rankings as he battles Jared Cannonier.

The UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman main fight card gets underway on Saturday. July 19, at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+. Below, we'll break down every fight with our UFC Oklahoma City predictions, predictive model analysis, and PrizePicks UFC picks for Du Plessis vs. Usman and the rest of the UFC Fight Night main card.

Make your UFC Fight Night predictions on winners, method of victory, sig strikes, and more on PrizePicks now!

{{ufc_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

UFC Fight Night Predictions for Du Plessis vs. Usman & Main Fight Card

Before we get into our UFC Oklahoma City predictions for Saturday, here’s the full main fight card on tonight's schedule.

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman’s main card from Oklahoma City is expected to start at 9 p.m. ET with the first main card fight, ending with Du Plessis vs. Usman in the main event. Here’s a full rundown of the proceedings:

• Main Event: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman – Middleweight
• Co-Main: Jared Cannonier vs. Christian Leroy Duncan – Middleweight
• Chase Hooper vs. Mitch Ramirez – Lightweight
• Tabatha Ricci vs. Fatima Kline – Women’s Strawweight
• Tommy McMillen vs. Alberto Montes – Featherweight

We’ll list the payouts for every UFC Fight Night main card fight below, via PrizePicks Team Picks. A 2x means the result will payout $200 on a $100 entry; a lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

PrizePicks Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. UFC winner markets are available in 35 states, including Florida, California, and Texas! 

Learn more about Austin Swaim's UFC predictive model here.

Dricus Du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman Prediction for UFC Oklahoma City

Fight Winner Payouts: Dricus Du Plessis 1.38x | Kamaru Usman 2.77x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Middleweight (185 lbs.)

Du Plessis vs. Usman Model Results:

As the model's results suggest, I think the UFC Oklahoma City main event is an outstanding matchup that will truly test the questions we have about these former champions.

It was stunning to see Dricus Du Plessis so overwhelmed in his last title defense. Khamzat Chimaev is an elite grappler, but ceding 12 takedowns, 21:40 in control time, and getting put in a crucifix position at least a half-dozen times was such a frighteningly poor effort from someone who previously lifted UFC gold.

Du Plessis will look to return to the violent, dominant fighter who submitted Israel Adesanya and stopped Robert Whittaker with strikes as he battles a former 170-pound champion, Kamaru Usman.

This is Usman’s second career appearance at middleweight. He went to a split decision with Chimaev in 2023 on short notice, which has to give him confidence, seeing how “The Wolf” dismantled DDP.

Kamaru “The Nigerian Nightmare” Usman isn’t free of questions himself. At 39 and with an extensive history of knee issues, his appearances are becoming few and far between. This is just Usman’s third UFC appearance since March 2023, as he’s remained adamant about fighting only for titles.

Usman was still able to turn back the clock last year in Atlanta against a powerful, dangerous puncher:

Size doesn’t actually seem to be a huge factor in this fight. Joaquin Buckley, Usman’s last foe, was a former middleweight.

Du Plessis might have a slight advantage, but this matchup comes down to the South African’s improvements with his takedown defense. Usman has built his career on grinding opponents with his positional wrestling, averaging 2.79 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Conversely, Du Plessis’ power and nonstop pace are significant threats to an aging Usman, whose durability isn’t what it used to be.

Predict the Du Plessis vs. Usman Winner at UFC Oklahoma City on PrizePicks

{{ufc_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Du Plessis vs. Usman Pick for UFC OKC

Kamaru Usman – 54.5 Significant Strikes

Since entering a five-round atmosphere, Dricus Du Plessis’ power has been exchanged for longevity. The former champion’s 0.54% knockdown rate (KD%) overall just isn’t very high, and Usman’s only (T)KO loss to date was that miraculous head kick by Leon Edwards.

For that reason, it’s a bit overstated how much danger Usman could be at distance here. With that being the case, the former champion’s elite jab and overhand right are dangerous weapons. He averages 8.16 significant strike attempts per minute, and Du Plessis’ defense (52%) has not been perfect.

The model expects roughly 18.7 minutes in this matchup on average, and projections also lean toward a longer fight. There should be plenty of wrestling from Usman in this spot, but he landed 17 ground strikes against Buckley. I wouldn’t rule out scoring a few significant strikes in top position, too – should he work his way to it.

Make Your Du Plessis vs. Usman Pick for UFC OKC on PrizePicks

Jared Cannonier vs. Christian Leroy Duncan Prediction for UFC Oklahoma City

Fight Winner Payouts: Jared Cannonier 3.44x | Christian Leroy Duncan 1.28x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Middleweight (185 lbs.)

Cannonier vs. Duncan Model Results:

If there’s a true dark horse that the winner of Du Plessis-Usman should keep an eye on, it’s a surging Christian Leroy Duncan, who has won four in a row since a grappling-induced loss to Gregory Rodrigues.

Duncan comes into this UFC Fight Night co-main event as a solid favorite vs. UFC-veteran Jared Cannonier.

Holding an outstanding +1.87 striking success rate (SSR) in nine starts, “CLD” has long been a kickboxing prodigy, and he’s started to realize confidence sitting down on strikes and making opponents pay:

Only one man stands between the Englishman and the top 10 at middleweight: Jared Cannonier.

The 42-year-old veteran is certainly on the back nine, but he’s not one to count out just yet. He just (T)KO’d Rodrigues last February before a tight decision against Michael “Venom” Page that didn’t go his way.

A native of Alaska, Cannonier beat current champion Sean Strickland in his late 30s and continues to operate at a high level, hailing from the elite MMA Lab in Phoenix. His ground-and-pound has proven to be nasty:

In what profiles as a striking affair at UFC OKC Duncan’s age, speed, attrition, and attack diversity are key advantages. However, there is something to be said for Cannonier’s extremely high-level experience. After all, Duncan’s best win at this stage was Roman Dolidze, who has extreme limitations at distance (-0.52 SSR).

Predict the Cannonier vs. Duncan Winner at UFC Oklahoma City on PrizePicks

Cannonier vs. Duncan Pick for UFC OKC

Jared Cannonier – 36.5 Significant Strikes

How realistic are Duncan’s knockout chances? The model’s forecast (28.9%) chance isn’t zero, but it’s also low enough to remember that Cannonier can certainly pile up strikes in an extended fight.

Before Page slowed the tempo as he often does, “The Killa Gorilla” Cannonier had topped 53 significant strikes in nine straight fights. It was just 25 months ago that Cannonier set the divisional record for significant strikes in a fight (241).

Notably, Cannonier has landed at least 13 leg kicks in each of his bouts with Rodrigues, Nassourdine Imavov, and Caio Borralho — all top-10 contenders. Those freebies (in terms of total counts) could significantly impact this projection.

Make Your Cannonier vs. Duncan Pick for UFC Oklahoma City on PrizePicks

Chase Hooper vs. Mitch Ramirez Prediction for UFC Oklahoma City

Fight Winner Payouts: Chase Hooper 1.28x | Mitch Ramirez 3.44x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs.)

Chase Hooper has quickly seen his UFC aspirations fade into a nightmare.

“The Dream” Hooper broke into the UFC at just 20 years old in 2019, starting his tenure at 8-3 and inspiring hopes of a championship future. The grappling ace is armed with four long limbs and an uncanny ability to wrap something up with them.

As Hooper has advanced in competition at lightweight, his 39% striking defense has become unmanageable. Hooper has been knocked out in consecutive fights, including during a hometown battle with Lance Gibson Jr. in March:

Hooper’s problems on the feet have put his UFC roster spot in jeopardy. Mitch Ramirez is 0-3 in UFC-affiliated appearances, including a loss in the Contender Series. Moreover, he’s yet to win a round. If Hooper goes out early again, his striking defense might prove to be unmanageable.

The fan-favorite grappler is looking to rebound, but Mitch Ramirez — a former welterweight — packs plenty of pop in his shots, with all of his last three wins (none in UFC) coming via KO/TKO.

We’ll see if Hooper can get back to his bread and butter.

Predict the Hooper vs. Ramirez Winner at UFC Oklahoma City on PrizePicks

{{ufc_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Hooper vs. Ramirez Pick for UFC OKC

Mitch Ramirez – 20.5 Significant Strikes

A quick fight between Hooper vs. Ramirez wouldn’t exactly be a surprise. Three of Hooper’s four losses have come inside the first round, and he’s also won four times inside the first eight minutes.

For these reasons, Hooper’s opponents have averaged just 27.92 significant strikes in 14 career fights.

Mitch Ramirez’s poor takedown defense (25%) is also an obstacle to landing significant strikes over the course of a longer fight.

Obviously, this projection for Ramirez has been more affected by projected fight length — projected at 8.5 minutes fight time on PrizePicks — than by Hooper's ability to avoid shots. In addition to the danger of an early submission, the American isn’t a stranger to early stoppages on the regional scene:

It’s not totally unprecedented to see someone light up Hooper in a longer fight, though. Alex Caceras topped 100 significant strikes in 2020. It would just defy a bit of recent history.

Make Your Hooper vs. Ramirez Pick for UFC Oklahoma City on PrizePicks

Tabatha Ricci vs. Fatima Kline Prediction for UFC Oklahoma City

Fight Winner Payouts: Tabatha Ricci 4.16x | Fatima Kline 1.20x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Women’s Strawweight (115 lbs.)

Ricci vs. Kline Model Results:

UFC fans are wondering what the true future of women’s strawweight looks like after Weili Zhang moved up a division, and the answer could be “The Archangel”.

If you throw out a short-notice debut at flyweight, Fatima Kline has dominated three straight foes. She stopped Melissa Martinez and Viktoriia Dudakova inside the distance before a +59 striking differential amidst a battering of Angela Hill.

Kline’s well-rounded fight style has been on display between efficient, high-paced striking (+2.30 SSR) and quality offensive wrestling (2.02 takedowns per 15 minutes). The question becomes how she handles a massive step up in competition against Tabatha Ricci.

Tabatha “Baby Shark” Ricci is short on size but has found a way to persevere, defeating Hill, Amanda Ribas, Gillian Robertson, and Tecia Pennington inside the rankings over the last three years. She uses her core strength to assert her will in clinch situations and averages 2.51 takedowns per 15 minutes.

At 5’6”, how does Kline’s incredible length for this division translate to takedown defense at the highest level? Even if you excuse the Jasudavicius result — a loss via dominant unanimous decision, Dudakova landed a pair of takedowns before her known endurance problems took over.

Ricci has routinely shown the gas to go a hard 15, but this fight really seems like it could get away from her if she's unable to close the gap.

Predict the Ricci vs. Kline Winner at UFC Oklahoma City on PrizePicks

Ricci vs. Kline Pick for UFC OKC

Fatima Kline – 71.5 Significant Strikes

This is quite the battering that Fatima Kline is projected to put on Ricci.

The Brazilian absorbs 4.83 significant strikes per minute, which is above the divisional average, despite her striking defense (57%). At 5’1”, Ricci has struggled to establish any sort of hesitation at range from her opponents despite defending well.

The high side of this sig strikes projection on PrizePicks would be in jeopardy due to Ricci’s wrestling, but the underdog has failed to record multiple takedowns in five of her last six.

It's an intriguing mark when Kline's average fight time (13:00) and Ricci's 62.5% career decision rate imply we'll see these ladies quite a bit on Saturday. The 2.5 rounds projection for this fight on PrizePicks is a Goblin projection, implying that this fight is a favorite to make it the distance.

Make Your Ricci vs. Kline Pick for UFC Oklahoma City on PrizePicks

Tommy McMillen vs. Alberto Montes Prediction for UFC Oklahoma City

Fight Winner Payouts: Tommy McMillen 1.63x | Alberto Montes 2.17x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Featherweight (145 lbs.)

Top prospects litter the UFC Oklahoma City undercard, and there isn’t one matchup more polarizing or hotly discussed than this one between 1-0 featherweights.

Tommy “Gunz” McMillen is the training partner and prodigy of "Suga" Sean O’Malley, and he lived up to the promise of all-action pursuit in a first-round molly-whopping of Manolo Zecchini in his UFC debut:

McMillen’s technique certainly isn’t sharp, but the wrestling standout from Montana utilizes his top-shelf pace, pressure, length, and durability to this division’s standards. McMillen will be a tough fight for anyone until we see a seminal blow or a dangerous submission capitalize on his reckless approach.

Alberto Montes is looking for one of those. The 32-year-old from Venezuela has made two successful trips to the octagon, including his Contender Series bout, and has won both via the same method: a lethal anaconda choke.

This is phenomenal matchmaking for UFC OKC. McMillen’s aggressiveness as a fighter, paired with Montes' tremendous counterstrikes and dangerous front chokes, is a bit reminiscent of last week’s battle between Benoit Saint Denis and Paddy Pimblett, where Pimblett submitted the Frenchman in under a minute via D'Arce choke.

Surely, McMillan won’t be as reckless as BSD was in UFC 329’s co-main event, right?

Predict the McMillen vs. Montes Winner at UFC Oklahoma City on PrizePicks

{{ufc_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

McMillen vs. Montes Pick for UFC OKC

McMillen vs. Montes – 7.75 Minutes Fight Time

This projection for the fight time total on PrizePicks — set nearly dead center of the 15-minute schedule — is fascinating.

Of course, both fighters are coming off first-round finishes, but both are also stepping up in competition. In 22 combined pro fights, they’ve combined for just one loss inside the distance. That was a Montes knockout loss just a few seconds into Round 2 on the regional scene.

McMillen’s 0.53 KD% is extremely low considering the road will only get tougher from here. He’s landed 187 significant strikes as a decent sample despite the duration of his fights not being particularly long. If he’s going to break Montes via pace and pressure, it definitely could be outside the first eight minutes.

If anything threatens an early finish, it might be a vintage Montes front choke, but the undefeated McMillan has wrestled in and out of those well beyond just this camp spent preparing for them.

This is one of those fights (sort of like Paddy-BSD) that will seem 20/20 in hindsight. We’ll see which fighter can execute their fight plan — and in what timeframe.

Make Your McMillen vs. Montes Pick for UFC Oklahoma City on PrizePicks

Swaim’s UFC Predictive Model for UFC Fight Night: How It Works

I've created a predictive UFC model that uses historical UFC stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

The results for each fight are listed above as "model results".

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 35 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be included in the model, which is why some fights do not have model results.

Each eligible UFC Fight Night main card fight for UFC OKC is listed above with model data to help you make your UFC predictions on PrizePicks today.

‍Follow Austin Swaim for more UFC picks, predictions, and analysis.

All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.

{{ufc_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Make UFC Fight Night Predictions on PrizePicks

UFC Oklahoma City is loaded with dangerous matchups, rising contenders, and plenty of ways for Saturday night to get chaotic fast, especially in the middleweight division, where the Du Plessis vs. Usman main event could decide the next title contender.

Use the UFC Fight Night predictions and model analysis above to build your PrizePicks Lineups before the Du Plessis vs. Usman and the rest of the main fight cards get underway at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Just go to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more UFC fighter projections for UFC Fight Night, headlined by Du Plessis vs. Usman, and lock in your Lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.

You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money, available in 35 states!

Stay tapped into Playbook for more UFC predictions, picks, and analysis for every card, every weekend.