Thursday features 11 MLB games spread throughout the day, with the action starting at 11:15 a.m. ET. Mets OF Juan Soto could continue his hot streak against a struggling pitcher at Citi Field, headlining a loaded list of top hitters to target today.
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections on the MLB board on Player Picks, and many hitters have already been targeted by users as some of the most popular home run picks on Thursday’s slate.
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Thursday's games, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick.
Make your MLB home run picks for Thursday, April 30, on PrizePicks now.
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Top MLB Home Runs Picks Today – Thursday, April 30
Hitting a home run is one of the toughest achievements for any athlete. As a result, it can be extraordinarily difficult to predict which players can go yard daily.
Several significant factors can be attributed to a player’s likelihood of launching the ball over the fence. How hard has a player been hitting the baseball? Has the opposing starting pitcher been surrendering a ton of fly balls? Could weather conditions play a role?
We'll try to bring you the most important home run-hitting factors for the top MLB home run picks of the day here, every day during the MLB season.
Home run projections are labeled as "Demons" on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout. However, you can only choose “More” on home run projections, normally set at 0.5.
Here’s are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
- Astros DH/LF Yordan Alvarez vs. Orioles
- Phillies DH/LF Kyle Schwarber vs. Giants
- Orioles 1B Pete Alonso vs. Astros
- Braves 1B Matt Olson vs. Tigers
- Reds SS Elly De La Cruz vs. Rockies
- Orioles IF Gunnar Henderson vs. Astros
- Pirates CF Oneil Cruz vs. Cardinals
- Mets LF Juan Soto vs. Nationals
Below, we’ll break down three top MLB home run hitter matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
Rockies C Hunter Goodman
Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds – 12:40 p.m. ET
Reds Starting Pitcher: Andrew Abbott (6 GS, 0-2, 4.81 xFIP, 37.6% hard-hit, 33.0% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 55 degrees, slight chance of rain, and 7-10 mph winds out to CF
Though not the most vulnerable home run target as a hurler, Reds LHP Andrew Abbott has shown enough vulnerability to believe Rockies C Hunter Goodman could keep his hot streak at the plate going.
Goodman has crushed four homers in his last five games, and he’s amassed a stellar .837 OPS, .318 isolated power (ISO), 50.0% hard-hit rate, and 60.0% flyball rate against southpaws in the past 30 days.
Abbott has only coughed up 0.75 HR/9 to right-handed bats in 2026, but there’s been an element of luck – especially playing in MLB’s second-best park for home runs. He’s allowed just a 7.4% homer-to-flyball ratio (HR:FB), while the major league average is 10.0% in this handedness matchup.
Add Hunter Goodman to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Mets OF Juan Soto
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets – 1:10 p.m. ET
Nationals Starting Pitcher: Miles Mikolas (3 GS, 0-3, 5.01 xFIP, 44.7% hard-hit, 38.1% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 62 degrees, mostly sunny, and 7-15 mph winds swirling
The Mets aren’t exactly flush on bats you love picking to go deep right now, but someone likely will against Nationals RHP Miles Mikolas.
Mikolas is getting crushed for 2.70 HR/9 in six appearances, and he’s conceded at least 1.35 HR/9 in consecutive full seasons. The contact pitcher has an issue with barrels, too, with an 11.8% rate allowed.
As a bonus, when Mikolas departs, Washington’s bullpen has the second-worst skill-interactive ERA (4.61 SIERA) as a unit over the last month.
Mets OF Juan Soto has packed a little bit of a punch back in New York’s lineup. He’s just 27 plate appearances (PAs) into his campaign against right-handed pitchers, but a 1.153 OPS, .200 ISO, and 57.9% hard-hit rate are an excellent start.
Soto homered once every 11.5 plate appearances with the platoon edge a year ago, and he also has a career .952 OPS against Mikolas in 8 at-bats.
Add Juan Soto to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Athletics C Shea Langeliers
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics – 3:05 p.m. ET
Royals Starting Pitcher: Noah Cameron (5 GS, 2-1, 4.37 xFIP, 47.1% hard-hit, 42.4% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 75 degrees, sunny, 2-5 mph winds out to RF
It’s been a trying sophomore campaign for Royals LHP Noah Cameron, and a trip to Sutter Health Park — MLB’s third-friendliest park for bombs — might not help.
Cameron has coughed up a 35.4% hard-hit rate and 40.0% flyball rate to right-handed bats, but he’s been able to run a bit hot when it comes to keeping them in the yard, according to his 7.7% HR:FB ratio.
A change in venue from Kauffman Stadium, MLB’s fourth-worst park for homers, might prove paramount for him today.
Athletics C Shea Langeliers is a dangerous man to hand the platoon edge against a struggling lefty. He posted a mammoth .313 ISO against southpaws a year ago, and that mark (.250) is similar in 2026’s small sample.
Langeliers has homered once every 10.7 at-bats against lefties thus far. Cameron’s struggles could provide an opportunity to add to the catcher's total of eight on the year — with only one coming at home so far.
Add Shea Langeliers to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks
Powerful catchers Shea Langeliers and Hunter Goodman have friendly matchups for offense on Thursday, and Juan Soto might use an extreme platoon advantage to his benefit.
All three have great matchups on deck to set them up for big days at the plate, which is what makes them popular home run picks for PrizePicks.
Don’t wait until the first pitch today — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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